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全年销售完成目标值的55%,2025年销售目标105亿;归母净利由盈转亏、现金短债比0.27。

◎ 作者/沈晓玲、陈家凤

【全年实际销售额同比下滑,2025年目标105亿】2024年信达地产并表项目与合作项目销售继续呈现下滑趋势且降幅有所扩大,全年合作权益销售额32.8亿,同比下滑45.6%,并表销售额38.2亿,同比下滑42.6%。全年代建业务贡献骤降,代建销售额约11.62亿,同比减少82.9%,占销售额的比重降至14%。若算上代建销售和合作权益销售,全年信达地产实现总销售额82.69亿,同比降幅扩大至57.6%,实际完成销售额仅为计划值的55%(2024年原计划销售目标150亿元)。展望2025年市场形势,信达计划签约销售额105亿,较2024年实际销售额增长27%,计划回款额100亿,较2024年实际完成值增长22%。

【新获项目以合联营开发为主,代建拓展收缩】2024年信达地产延续前期谨慎投资策略,全年新增土储总建面144.6万方,同比微增3%。2024年信达地产新增少量并表,新增并表面积24.88万方,全年新获项目以合联营为主,合作权益面积88.32万方,同比增长31.3%,占全年新增土储的61.1%,而新增代建项目计容建面31.43万方,同比大幅下滑57%。截止2024年底,企业总土地储备主要分为三部分,且均有不同程度下滑。其中代建土地储备规模和并表土地储备规模基本相当,均在300万平方米左右。

【营业收入同比下滑,净利由盈转亏】2024年信达地产营收80.28亿,同比下滑29.7%,结转收入64.12亿,同比减少32.5%;受销售业绩回落拖累,合同负债较年初大幅减少67.7%至15.43亿,对结转收入覆盖倍数从年初的0.5降至0.24倍,并表比例偏低,无法满足未来营收有效增长。净利首次出现亏损,全年亏损约8.1亿元,缘于合联营投资收益贡献同比下滑、减值拨备大幅提升所致。归母净利同比由盈转亏至7.84亿元,核心归母净利亏损8.17亿元。

【现金短债比0.27,流动性管理成关键】销售低迷叠加偿债加速,全年信达地产经营性现金流净流出11.4亿,筹资性现金流净流出50.3亿,致年末在手现金较年初减少48.8%至49.57亿,对短债覆盖倍数约0.27倍,流动性承压。此外,信达地产扣预资产负债率较年初减少2.2pct至65.37%,净资产负债率较年初增长11.2pct至106%。

01

销售

全年实际销售额同比下滑,2025年目标105亿

2024年信达地产并表项目与合作项目销售继续呈现下滑趋势且降幅有所扩大,全年合作权益销售额32.8亿,合作权益销售面积17.63万方,分别同比下滑45.6%和28.4%;而并表项目实现销售额38.2亿,同比下滑42.6%,较去年同期降幅扩大15.6pct,而并表项目销售面积22.62万方,同比下滑44.4%,较去年同期降幅扩大25.1pct。

从并表项目的销售分布来看,以销售面积计,约73.8%的销售来自于长三角城市,仍是核心贡献区域,但占比小幅下降1.6pct。中西部占比14.1%,占比次之,基本与去年同期持平,而珠三角和环渤海占比分别达8%和4%,有所微增。城市能级上,一二线销售面积贡献占比59.2%,其中二线销售下滑显著,全年实现销售面积同比下滑61.6%,其中合肥实现销售4.09万方,是所有城市中贡献最大的城市,占比18%,较去年同期下滑15%,重点城市销售有所收缩。

“保交楼”政策背景下,中国信达纾困过程中对暴雷项目采用“AMC接管注入资金+委托代建”的模式,作为中国信达旗下唯一的地产开发平台,信达地产一直扮演“代建方”角色。然而2024年其代建业务贡献骤降,全年代建销售额约11.62亿,同比减少82.9%,占销售额的比重降至14%,代建销售面积7.32万方,同比降幅72.1%,代建未能延续前期高增长趋势。

若算上代建销售和合作权益销售,全年信达地产实现总销售额82.69亿,同比降幅扩大至57.6%,实际完成销售额仅为计划的55%(2024年原计划销售目标150亿元),回款额82.09亿、回款率99.3%,总销售面积47.6万方,同比下滑48%。展望2025年市场形势,信达计划签约销售额105亿,较2024年实际销售额增长27%,计划回款额100亿,较2024年实际完成值增长22%。

02

投资

新获项目以合联营开发为主,代建拓展收缩

2024年信达地产延续前期谨慎投资策略,全年新增土储总建面144.6万方,同比微增3%,但较2020-2022年高峰期仍然处于低位。继2023年无新增并表项目后,2024年信达地产增加少量并表,新增并表面积24.88万方,占比17.2%;全年新获取项目以合联营开发为主,合作权益面积88.32万方,同比增长31.3%,占全年新增土储的61.1%,成为新增土储主力,以减少资金和开发风险。而新增代建项目计容建面31.43万方,同比大幅下滑57%,代建拓展收缩明显。

截止2024年底,企业总土地储备主要分为三部分,且均有不同程度下滑。其中代建土地储备规模和并表土地储备规模基本相当,均在300万平方米左右。根据年报列示的并表待开发项目来看,待开发地块中芜湖、合肥、重庆并表储备面积居前三,占比达22.9%、19.7%、16.9%。

03

盈利

营业收入同比下滑,净利由盈转亏

2024年信达地产营业收入80.28亿,同比下滑29.7%,结转收入64.12亿,同比减少32.5%,结转速度放缓。受销售业绩回落拖累,合同负债较年初大幅减少67.7%至15.43亿,对结转收入覆盖倍数从年初的0.5降至0.24倍,无法满足未来营收有效增长。

盈利能力,毛利同比下滑21.4%至24.29亿,综合毛利率30.3%,较去年提升3.2pct,其中房地产开发毛利率15.62%,同比减少2.88pct,房地产开发毛利率仍处行业较高水平,可能缘于纾困加速下其母公司为信达地产带来的土储资源优势。租赁及其他业务毛利率43.37%,同比增加10.11pct,商业物业租赁及代建管理业务的高毛利属性能够有效平滑房地产开发业务导致的毛利率波动,修复整体毛利率水平。

净利首次出现亏损,全年亏损约8.1亿元,缘于合联营投资收益同比下滑78.7%至1.3亿、减值拨备提升,其中信用和资产减值损失分别计提8.14亿和6.07亿,侵蚀了盈利空间。全年归母净利同比由盈,转亏7.84亿元,核心归母净利亏损8.17亿元。

04

负债

现金短债比0.27,需关注流动性管理

依托央企背景,2024年信达地产融资成本有所改善,整体平均融资成本从去年的4.63%减少至4.36%。年末有息负债319.88亿元,基本与年初持平。从融资渠道看,银行贷款、债券等融资渠道占到总有息负债的41.9%和54.76%,信托及其他渠道融资贡献度降低至3.34%,融资渠道持续改善;从期限来看,短期有息负债占比从年初的26.9%升高至56.5%,债务期限结构恶化。

受年内销售业绩的拖累,销售低迷叠加偿债加速,全年信达地产经营性现金流净流出11.4亿,筹资性现金流净流出50.3亿,致年末在手现金较年初减少48.8%至49.57亿,对短债覆盖倍数约0.27倍,流动性承压。此外,信达地产扣预资产负债率较年初减少2.2pct至65.37%,净负债率较年初增长11.2pct至106%。

排版|鸟姐

以上代表克而瑞研究中心团队观点,仅供参考

转载注明出处:克而瑞地产研究(cricyjzx)多谢配合

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