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和这个世界谈谈网 - 重温那些年少轻狂的岁月与感动
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  中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布,4月21日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为:1年期LPR为3.10%,5年期以上LPR为3.60%,均与前期保持一致。值得注意的是,这是LPR连续六个月“按兵不动”。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青接受界面新闻采访时指出,4月LPR报价继续“按兵不动”,符合市场预期,主要原因有两个,一是4月以来政策利率(央行7天期逆回购利率)保持不变。这意味着本月LPR报价的定价基础未发生变化,已在很大程度上预示4月LPR报价会保持不动。

  第二,王青表示,当前银行净息差处于历史低位,报价行主动下调LPR报价加点的动力不足。总体上看,年初以来LPR报价持续不动,根本上是一季度经济走势偏强,由此,尽管当然货币政策基调由稳健转为适度宽松,但下调LPR报价的迫切性不强。

  王青在采访中分析称,综合当外部经贸环境变化,国内房地产市场和物价走势,二季度“择机降准降息”时机已经成熟,不排除提前到4月的可能。

  “预计本次降息幅度可能达到30个基点,降幅与去年全年相当。这意味着下一步有力度的政策性降息将带动LPR报价下行,进而引导企业和居民货款利率下调,较大幅度降低实体经济融资成本。这是当前促消费、扩投资,大力提振内需,对冲潜在外需放缓,切实增强宏观经济韧性的有效措施之一。这也意味着今年超常规逆周期调即全面启动。”他说。

  他同时提到,未来LPR报价将给银行带来一定净息差收窄压力,将主要通过引导存款利率下行,全面降低银行资金成本等方式缓解。

  4月7日,《人民日报》发表评论员文章《集中精力办好自己的事》,其中提出:“未来根据形势需要,降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地,随时可以出台。

  财信金控首席经济学家伍超明也认为,从目前来看,央行的降准降息节奏或将加快。

  他进一步分析称,一方面,扩大内需的逆周期政策力度需要进一步加大;另一方面,部分外需转内需会进一步加大国内供给,对物价产生下行压力。促进物价合理回升是今年货币政策的重要考量,需要货币政策发力节奏适当靠前。此外,美国经济下行压力增加,衰退概率加大,美元或走弱,对国内政策约束减轻。

  随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普研究他是否能够解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,“卖出美国”(资产)的交易势头增强。

  投资者权衡鲍威尔下台的风险及其可能对美国资产人气造成的进一步打击,在假期所致的亚洲淡净交投中,美元兑几乎所有主要货币都走软。跌势还蔓延到其他资产类别,美国股指期货和美债一道回落。

  “坦白说,解雇鲍威尔会动摇市场信念,”华侨银行策略师ChristopherWong说。“如果美联储的公信力存疑,就可能会严重削弱人们对美元的信心。”

  鲍威尔如果被解职,可能会削弱投资者信心,因为美联储的独立性被视为投资美国资产的一个关键原因。然而,特朗普可能在一定程度上能接受美元走软,因为他之前曾表示,欢迎美元贬值,因为这会使美国的产品更具竞争力。

  欧元和瑞士法郎涨幅居前,前者升至逾三年高位。

  在上周下跌0.7%的基础上,彭博美元即期指数周一一度再下跌0.8%。G-10货币兑美元均走高,另一种避险货币日元升至9月以来最高水平。

  “我们认为美元将继续走软,”BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.市场策略全球主管WinThin在报告中写道。“对美联储独立性的攻击正在加剧。承认正在研究解雇问题是个非常严肃和负面的事。”

  美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示,对冲基金目前对美元的看空程度为去年10月以来最高。

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