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绿色软件论坛:尽情感受视觉与情感的双重冲击。
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绿色软件论坛:尽情感受视觉与情感的双重冲击。

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  4月以来,9只银行股股价盘中创历史新高,行业热度持续攀升。

  2024年四季度,银行股业绩明显改善,今年一季度也有多股报喜。行业现金分红总额有望再创新高,12只银行股年度分红金额均超百亿元。

  本月9只银行股股价创新高

  4月24日,银行指数收盘涨1.16%。中国银行、农业银行和工商银行股价均创历史新高,收盘分别上涨2.1%、2.01%和1.83%。

  本月以来,建设银行、交通银行和江苏银行等9只银行股盘中股价均创历史新高。

  创新高的银行股今年以来股价稳步上涨,上海银行股价年内涨幅达到15.52%,工、农、中、建四大行股价年内涨幅均在6%以上。

  4月以来,市场行情持续震荡,银行板块作为高股息、低估值的避险资产颇受资金青睐。

  数据显示,农业银行、宁波银行、中信银行近5日获主力资金净流入均在1亿元以上;工商银行、无锡银行、邮储银行获主力资金净流入均超6000万元。

  多家机构认为,从已披露经营情况的银行来看,一季度财务指标和资产质量总体稳健。展望后市,银行业相对于大部分行业而言,基本面具备相对稳健特征。

  此外,广发证券认为,近期银行股作为指数重要组成部分,对指数稳定起了重要作用。

  去年四季度业绩改善

  据证券时报·数据宝统计,截至4月24日,36只银行股发布2024年度报告或业绩快报。按归母净利润同比增幅来看,33只银行股2024年盈利实现同比增长,3只银行股小幅下滑,整体报喜比例超九成。

  浦发银行2024年归母净利润同比增幅最高,达到23.31%。浦发银行在年报中表示,经营效益增长主要有四个方面的原因:一是信贷实现快速增长,信贷净增量创历史新高;二是强化负债统筹管理,存款付息率较上年同期下降19bps;三是积极增厚投资收益,其他非利息净收入增长8.74%;四是资产质量不断夯实,精细化管理降本增效。

  银行股去年第四季度业绩普遍向好,已披露业绩的36只银行股合计实现归母净利润超4800亿元,较上年同期增长5.66%,青岛银行、渝农商行、齐鲁银行等9只银行股2024年第四季度归母净利润同比增幅超过10%。

  受益于去年第四季度的良好表现,兴业银行、交通银行、招商银行、郑州银行等银行股2024年度业绩向好。

  此外,已有5只银行股发布2025年第一季度业绩快报或一季报,常熟银行、南京银行、渝农商行、江阴银行实现归母净利润同比增长,平安银行小幅下降。民生银行、交通银行、浦发银行、杭州银行发布了第一季度主要经营情况,均表示资产负债结构不断优化,经营效益继续提升。

  12股2024年度分红金额超百亿元

  银行股历来是高股息的代表,截至4月24日,已有29只银行股发布年报分红计划,合计现金分红总额达到3578.44亿元,工商银行、建设银行、招商银行年报分红金额居前,均超过500亿元。

  按已公告2024年度累计分红总额来看,银行板块2024年已实施或公告的现金分红总额合计达到6161.26亿元,已超过2023年的6133.5亿元,再创历史新高,工商银行、建设银行、农业银行等12只个股超百亿元。

  工商银行分红方案显示,每10股派发1.646元(含税),向普通股股东现金派息总额共计586.64亿元。加上此前半年报分红金额,公司全年现金分红达到1097.73亿元,再创新高,已连续9年实现增长。

  宁波银行2024年分红金额同比增幅最高,达到50%,杭州银行、浦发银行紧随其后,均在25%以上。

  宁波银行分红金额由2023年的39.62亿元增长到2024年的59.43亿元。公司在投资者调研活动中表示,稳定的分红是股东投资回报的重要组成部分,公司始终将为股东创造良好回报作为经营管理的重要考量。

  本报记者 刘 琪

  4月24日,中国人民银行(以下简称“央行”)发布公告称,为保持银行体系流动性充裕,2025年4月25日(周五),将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF(中期借贷便利)操作,期限为1年期。

  鉴于本月MLF到期量为1000亿元,故央行MLF口径将实现净投放5000亿元。这也将是央行连续第二个月加量续作MLF。3月份,央行开展4500亿元MLF,对冲3870亿元到期量后实现净投放630亿元。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认为,央行连续两个月加量续作MLF,而且本月加量幅度较上月的630亿元显著扩大,表明央行加大了通过MLF向市场注入中期流动性的力度。一方面,本月启动今年1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元特别国债发行,加之未来一段时间地方政府债券还会保持较快发行节奏,都意味着债市将迎来更大规模的发行高峰,需要央行通过适当的流动性安排,确保政府债券顺利发行,体现了货币政策与财政政策之间的协调配合。另一方面,4月份外部经贸环境骤然发生变化,宏观政策将在稳增长方向显著加力。其中,央行大幅加量续作MLF,体现了保持流动性充裕,加大对实体经济支持力度的政策取向,释放了货币政策发力稳增长的信号。

  除了1000亿元MLF到期外,4月份还有1.2万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购以及5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期。中信证券首席经济学家明明认为,本月MLF加大投放规模也可能是为了配合对冲买断式逆回购的到期压力。

  王青预计,本月央行买断式逆回购也会处于较大规模净投放状态。

  明明则认为,4月份受外部因素影响,市场对宽货币发力对冲的预期较为充足。不过,4月份以来总量降息、降准工具并未落地。当下央行选择先行加大MLF净投放规模,预计降准等数量端宽货币工具4月份进一步加码的可能性缩小。往后看,长期视角下降准等政策工具必要性仍高。

  此外,自3月份起,MLF操作由单一价位中标调整为多重价位中标(即美式招标),不再有统一的中标利率,这标志着MLF利率的政策属性完全淡出,MLF回归流动性投放工具定位,与其他各期限工具一同构成央行流动性工具体系。

  “政策利率属性淡出后,MLF的工具定位也更为清晰,即聚焦于提供1年期流动性。”业内专家表示,目前央行流动性工具箱丰富,期限分布更趋合理,长期有降准、国债买卖,中期有MLF、买断式逆回购操作以及各类结构性工具,短期有公开市场7天期逆回购、临时隔夜正、临时隔夜逆回购。未来央行流动性管理将更加高效精准,调控力度和节奏更加科学灵活,更好兼顾多重目标。

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