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新余市(渝水区、分宜县)

  转自:北京商报

  一季度中国经济实现良好开局,提振消费、创新驱动、投资发挥了稳定作用。4月16日,国家统计局发布数据显示,初步核算,一季度国内生产总值(GDP)31.88万亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。国民经济起步平稳、开局良好,高质量发展向新向好。同日,在国新办举行的新闻发布会上,国家统计局副局长盛来运表示,中国经济目前依靠内需和创新驱动的新格局正在形成。

  作为今年经济的重头戏,提振消费开了个好头。数据显示,一季度社会消费品零售总额124671亿元,同比增长4.6%,比上年全年加快1.1个百分点,其中,3月份增速反弹至5.9%。消费品以旧换新额度翻倍,正点燃更多消费热情。

  同时,新动能按下经济加速键,在实现量的合理增长的同时,我国新质生产力也进一步培育壮大。一季度,规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.7%。同时,绿色转型、绿色发展扎实推进。以新能源车、锂电池、光伏为代表的新能源产业继续保持较高增长速度。非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重比上年同期提升了1.5个百分点。

  投资方面,一季度全国固定资产投资(不含农户)103174亿元,同比增长4.2%,比上年全年加快1个百分点。扣除房地产开发投资,全国固定资产投资增长8.3%。

  楼市方面,数据显示,回暖迹象愈发明显,一线城市新房、二手房价格环比均呈现上涨态势,新建住宅环比涨幅0.1%,已连续上涨4个月;二手住宅环比更是由降转升,涨幅达0.2%。

  /增速/一季度GDP同比增长5.4%

  服务业增加值同比增长5.3%,比上年全年加快0.3个百分点;社会消费品零售总额124671亿元,同比增长4.6%,比上年全年加快1.1个百分点;货物出口61314亿元,增长6.9%;规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.7%……一季度,我国多项主要经济数据表现良好。

  盛来运在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍,今年以来,面对复杂的局面,我国加快落实积极有为的宏观政策,有力有效应对外部挑战,一季度,国民经济起步平稳、开局良好,高质量发展向新向好。

  看增速,一季度GDP同比增长5.4%,高于去年全国5%的增速,也高于去年一季度5.3%的增速,在全球主要经济体中名列前茅。

  /创新/新动能按下经济加速键

  在实现量的合理增长的同时,我国新质生产力也进一步培育壮大。

  一季度,规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.7%。高技术产业投资增长6.5%,明显高于整体固定资产投资增速。同时,绿色转型、绿色发展扎实推进。以新能源车、锂电池、光伏为代表的新能源产业继续保持较高增长速度。非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重比上年同期提升了1.5个百分点。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,一季度GDP同比增速达到5.4%,超出市场普遍预期,主要有三方面因素:此前出台的一揽子增量政策持续推进,提振内需效果进一步显现;服务消费和制造业投资较快增长,表明当前经济内生增长动能也在改善;一季度外需保持较强韧性,对经济增长较大幅度正向贡献。

  /消费/增速超预期回升

  消费增速的超预期回升,对推动经济企稳回升向好发挥了至关重要的作用。

  一季度,社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%,比去年全年提升了1.1个百分点,幅度较大。3月商品零售和餐饮收入增速均有所加快,其中,商品零售提速更为明显,当月同比增速较1—2月累计同比加快2个百分点至5.9%,餐饮收入当月同比则较1—2月累计同比加快1.3个百分点至5.6%。

  “两新”政策尤其是消费品以旧换新政策效果明显,电动自行车、手机、平板、智能手表这些新扩围的产品销售增速非常高。

  一季度,限额以上单位通讯器材类商品零售额同比增长26.9%,文化办公用品类增长21.7%,家用电器和音像器材类增长19.3%,家具类增长18.1%,仅这四项就拉动社会消费品零售总额增长1.4个百分点。

  “大力提振消费、提高投资效益,全方位扩大国内需求”是2025年政府工作十大任务之首。近日,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》,主要围绕“以增收减负提升消费能力,以高质量供给创造有效需求,以优化消费环境增强消费意愿”进行部署。随着政策发力显效,年内消费增长动能有望逐步得到改善。

  盛来运表示,今年一季度消费在政策的推动下持续改善。消费是收入的函数,要大力提振消费,也要大力促进消费能力的提升。下一步,要积极稳就业、促增收、减负担,提升居民消费能力,大力增加优质消费供给,持续释放消费潜力,不断优化消费环境,增强消费意愿,促进国民经济持续向好发展。

  /楼市/3月一线城市新房二手房价格环比同涨

  “3月份,无论是一线城市还是二、三线城市,无论是新房还是二手房,价格均有积极变化。”盛来运在发布会上提到。

  一季度房价运行总体稳定。数据显示,一线城市新房、二手房价格环比均呈现上涨态势,新建住宅环比涨幅0.1%,已连续上涨4个月;二手住宅环比更是由降转升,涨幅达0.2%。值得关注的是,新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨城市数量增至24个,较上月多了6个;二手住宅环比上涨城市也增加到10个,比上月多7个。业内人士普遍认为,房地产调控政策的效应还在显现。

  具体来看,国家统计局数据显示,3月一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。其中,北京、上海、深圳分别上涨0.5%、0.4%和0.3%,广州下降0.2%。

  北京商报记者梳理发现,自2024年10月北京二手住宅销售价格环比首次由跌转涨后,除2025年2月环比持平外,其余月份均为上涨。具体来看,2024年10月—2025年3月北京二手住宅销售价格环比分别为1%、0.9%、0.5%、0.1%、持平、0.5%。

  二手房市场交易的活跃也带动了新房市场加速回暖。数据显示,一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨0.1%,涨幅与上月相同。其中,上海和深圳分别上涨0.7%和0.1%,北京和广州分别下降0.2%和0.1%。

  北京商报记者梳理发现,一线城市新建住宅价格自2024年12月起已连续保持4个月环比增长。其中,2024年12月新建住宅价格由持平转为上涨0.2%后,2025年1—3月延续增长趋势,分别环比上涨0.1%、0.1%、0.1%。

  此外,二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比持平,与上月相同。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.2%,降幅收窄0.1个百分点。

  从同比数据来看,一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降2.8%,降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。其中,上海上涨5.7%,北京、广州和深圳分别下降5.7%、7.2%和3.9%。

  北京商报记者王寅浩李晗

  /投资/引擎动力增强

  数据显示,一季度,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)103174亿元,同比增长4.2%,比上年全年加快1个百分点,显示年初投资动能增强,主要源于基建投资提速和制造业投资继续保持高增。

  分领域看,重要投资板块也显现积极迹象。一季度基础设施投资增长5.8%,比上年全年加快1.4个百分点。在“两新”尤其大规模设备更新政策带动下,一季度设备工器具购置投资同比增长19%,比去年全年加快3.3个百分点,对全部投资增长贡献率是64.6%,有效拉动了投资。

  投资引擎的动力增强,源于政策效应的持续显现。中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出,大规模设备更新政策推动工器具购置投资增速提升、政府债加快发行托底基建投资、发展新质生产力带动高技术行业快速发展等,都凸显出政策的积极效果。

  盛来运介绍,今年以来,地方新增专项债发行提速,带动了到位资金的改善和项目的推进。一季度,新增专项债累计发行量接近1万亿元,固定资产投资本年实际到位资金同比增长3.7%。

  王青分析称,一季度政府债券,包括用于项目建设的新增地方政府专项债发行节奏明显加快。去年四季度推出一揽子大规模化债方案,减轻了地方政府债务负担,释放了其在基建投资等方面的稳增长动能。当前基建投资提速,根本原因在于,在年初外部经贸环境变数显著加大的背景下,短期内基建投资要发挥宏观经济稳定器作用。

  值得注意的是,一系列促民营经济发展政策措施的扎实推进,带动民间投资活力进一步提升。盛来运提到,民间投资由上年全年下降转为增长,一季度同比增长0.4%。数据显示,制造业和基础设施投资中的民间投资同比分别增长9.7%和9.3%,均比各自领域平均增速要快。

  投资活力的持续释放,是扩大国内需求、稳住经济大盘的重要支撑。专家认为,要更大力度支持“两重”建设和“两新”工作,加快实施重点项目,引导更多民间资本参与重大基础设施及民生建设,进一步推动有效投资持续扩大。

  北京商报综合报道

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