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久期财经讯,4月16日,据悉,上周,美国10年期国债收益率的上升引发投资者警觉,市场担忧在全球贸易政策动荡之际,美债作为避险资产的吸引力正在减弱。然而,DataTrekResearch联合创始人NicholasColas指出,若美国国债真的面临“转折时刻”,实际利率本应已升至一年新高,而事实上并未如此。

所谓“实际利率”,是剔除通胀预期后的收益率,通常由通胀保值债券(TIPS)市场计算得出。Colas在周二的一份研究报告中指出,尽管上周实际10年期美债收益率的上升令人关注,尤其是在美股剧烈波动的背景下,目前的利率水平仍未超过年内高点,因此不宜过度解读。

据圣路易斯联储的数据,4月11日,10年期美债实际收益率升至2.28%,较前一日的2.21%明显走高,自4月3日特朗普宣布新一轮关税以来,该指标已从1.78%大幅上涨。

摩根士丹利投资管理公司广义固定收益团队的基金经理BrianEllis表示,当10年期实际收益率升破2%,可能会对经济增长构成抑制。他目前更青睐2年至5年期的美债区间,因为若美联储因经济放缓而降息,这一区间将从价格升值中获益最大。

尽管市场预期降息可能在今年实现,Ellis指出,10年期美债的“期限溢价”可能因投资者担忧长期美债需求下降而上升。这种担忧不仅源自美欧贸易争端,也受到美国财政赤字扩大、债务供给增加的影响。

热点消息

招商证券发布关于深圳市龙光控股有限公司重大事项的临时受托管理事务报告。现阶段,公司针对相关21笔债券/资产支持证券发布了给予/延长债券/资产支持证券宽限期的议案与重组议案同步表决,截至目前,“H9龙控02”、“H9龙控03”持有人会议已经表决通过前述宽限期议案。其余债券/资产支持证券如无法在原有的宽限期内/下一兑付日前表决通过前述宽限期议案或重组议案,则存在违约风险。

正荣地产控股发布公告,截至今日,“H20正荣2”召集人未能与投资者达成新的偿付安排,也未能足额筹措资金按原定到期日偿付,需继续协商。因此,召集人拟变更会议召开截止时间、登记参会及投票表决截止时间,均延期至2025年4月22日。

昆明安居集团发布公告,已行使提早赎回权,于2025年4月5日悉数赎回KMLHDM812/14/25。赎回票据后,票据被全部注销,该票据概无未偿余额。

据媒体报道,鑫苑置业债权人向美国法院申请Chapter11破产保护,以回收已违约债券的本息。

每日发行总结

今日,一级市场,共3家公司发行:

数据来源:久期财经

每日评级总结

今日,共3家公司评级获机构更新:

数据来源:久期财经

市场动向

截至4月15日,中国二年期国债收益率为1.42%,中国十年期国债收益率为1.66%。

美国二年期国债收益率下行1bp至3.84%;美国十年期国债收益率下行30bp至4.35%。

中美10年期国债利差:

4月16日,中资美元债涨跌幅榜TOP10如下:

阿里、腾讯及小米等美元债近期出现反弹。消息面上,据报道,香港特区财政司长陈茂波于近日在司长随笔上表示,针对全球最新变化,他已指示证监会和港交所做好准备,若于海外上市的中概股希望回流,必须让香港成为它们首选的上市地。相关美元债:

数据来源:久期财经

宏观新闻

国家统计局发布,初步核算,一季度国内生产总值318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。分产业看,第一产业增加值11713亿元,同比增长3.5%;第二产业增加值111903亿元,增长5.9%;第三产业增加值195142亿元,增长5.3%。

国家统计局发布,3月份,规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长7.7%(增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率)。从环比看,3月份,规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.44%。1—3月份,规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%。分三大门类看,3月份,采矿业增加值同比增长9.3%,制造业增长7.9%,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长3.5%。

国家统计局城市司首席统计师王中华解读2025年3月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况统计数据。2025年3月份,住房市场成交活跃度提升,70个大中城市中,商品住宅销售价格环比上涨城市个数增加;一线城市商品住宅销售价格环比上涨,二三线城市环比总体降幅收窄;各线城市同比降幅均继续收窄。

中国人民银行发布公告,2025年4月16日中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1045亿元、7天期逆回购操作,中标利率为1.50%,中标量为1045亿元。今日有1189亿元7天期逆回购到期,当日实现净回笼144亿元。

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