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康熙国策顾问 - 探索最热潮流与文化交汇的时尚之路
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  汇通财经APP讯——据路孚特,最新数据显示,美国债券市场正经历一场前所未有的资金大逃亡。在特朗普政府加征关税可能加剧通胀的阴影下,投资者正以创纪录的速度撤离债券市场,这场资本外流已持续整整五周未见缓和。

图:美国国内股票、债券及货币市场基金的资金流动情况,绿色柱为债券

  美国债券基金遭遇“五连杀”

  根据伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)理柏(Lipper)最新报告,截至4月16日当周,美国债券基金净流出高达100.7亿美元。这已是该类基金连续第五周遭遇资金撤离,累计流出规模惊人。值得注意的是,虽然较前一周156.4亿美元的“大失血”有所缓和,但市场恐慌情绪仍在持续蔓延。

  资金流向现极端分化

  在整体债市遭遇抛售的背景下,资金流向呈现两极分化:

  中短期投资级基金成为重灾区,单周净流出63亿美元,延续前周66.6亿美元的撤离态势

  中短期政府和公债基金则逆势吸金68.2亿美元,成为罕见的安全港

  一般国内应税固定收益基金也未能幸免,净流出22.2亿美元

  股债双杀格局形成

  这场资本外逃不仅限于债市:

  美国股票基金单周净流出106.2亿美元,与前周净流入65亿美元形成强烈反差。

  科技、医疗保健和大宗消费品板块分别遭遇8.19亿、5.14亿和3.48亿美元净流出。

  货币市场基金更是连续第二周失血,规模高达惊人的1317.4亿美元。

  【深度解析】

  市场分析人士指出,这轮资本大迁徙直接反映了投资者对特朗普关税政策的深度忧虑。随着进口商品价格上涨压力加剧,市场普遍预期通胀可能再度抬头,迫使美联储推迟降息计划。在这种预期下,资金正加速撤离风险资产,转向更具防御性的投资品种。这场由政策不确定性引发的市场动荡,恐将持续冲击全球投资格局。

  欧元区国债收益率在复活节后的交易中几乎没有变化,并且表现仍优于美国国债。

  在美国总统特朗普多次喊话美联储主席鲍威尔降息,并暗示可能解雇鲍威尔后,美国国债表现不佳,收益率上升。美国国债收益率曲线周一变得更为陡峭。

  市场等待周三公布的4月PMI初值数据,这是推动市场走势的关键指标之一。

  德国10年期国债收益率持平于2.461%,美国10年期国债收益率上升1.5个基点,至4.419%。

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