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  财联社4月16日(编辑史正丞)面对美国特朗普政府“朝三暮四”的关税政策,全球贸易行业叫苦不迭之际,也有一批人迎来混沌年代的致富机会——例如美国的保税仓库运营商。

  顾名思义,保税仓库是一种特殊的仓储空间,允许进口商将商品存放在临近港口的特殊许可仓库中,直到向美国用户销售时再办理清关手续并支付关税。一般而言,只要他们愿意支付仓储费用,可以最多将货物存放高达5年的时间。

  对于两、三天就要变一次的特朗普贸易政策而言,这种仓储业态可谓是极度契合。

  当地媒体报道称,受到特朗普过去几个月里不断推出又撤回关税政策冲击,美国各地的保税仓库需求出现激增。

  为上千家仓库业务提供短期租赁服务的美国初创企业Flexe透露,今年迄今为止,保税仓库的咨询量激增了6倍。由于异常旺盛的需求,目前保税仓库的租金已经比普通仓库高出60%。

  Flexe透露,目前销售的网络里有140个美国海关保税设施,总面积达到2100万平方英尺,这些空间正在迅速售罄。

  由于更严格的监管要求,保税仓库平时就价格不菲。眼下对这种空间的需求激增也反映出企业的无奈——宁可支付更高的仓储费用,也不愿一次性缴纳关税。

  对于进口商来说,特朗普贸易政策的不确定性极大地增加了这类仓库的吸引力。如果特朗普变卦撤回关税,商家可以把握住稍纵即逝的窗口迅速完成清关。反之若关税持续生效,企业也能分批少量提取库存,将关税的影响分散到更长的周期,从而在美国消费市场萎缩期间尽可能地保留灵活性。

  Flexe的联合创始人KarlSiebrecht透露,一家年销售额达1亿美元的人造圣诞树进口商通过他们定下保税仓库,将支付关税的时间延后至临近年底的圣诞节。

  对于整个仓储行业来说,保税仓只是整个工业地产的很小一部分。但市场兴趣的激增可能会促使仓库业主向联邦政府申请认证。这一流程可能会持续一年,同样也要面对特朗普政府的政策不确定性。

  保税仓运营商AccemWarehouse的总裁JerryMecca透露,在美国政府宣布关税后,尚未抵港的船只就将公司位于新泽西州的22万平方英尺保税仓全部租赁一空。虽然由于特朗普撤销了部分关税,导致一些预售交易未能达成,但鉴于目前仍在实施的部分关税,预计仓库空间很快会被填满。

  美国全国报关与货运代理协会主席JoseGonzalez预期,洛杉矶等沿海港口附近的保税仓最有可能爆满。目前在洛杉矶港和长滩港处理的货物中,有约40%来自中国。

  加州长滩的报关货代公司KriegerWorldwide总裁罗伯特·克里格透露,现在有大量进口商咨询他如何寻找保税仓库存放货物。

  克里格表示,一家从中国进口鞋类的客户正在寻求将货物存放在保税仓,以观望关税是否会下调。若关税没有下降,他们会把货物转运至加拿大或第三国。另一个客户上周还在为来自南亚的40个服装集装箱寻找保税仓,现在转向利用90天的关税宽限期。

  隔夜股市

  全球主要股市多数上涨,美股三大股指均小幅收跌。

  商品市场

  国际油价15日下跌。截至当天收盘,纽约商品交易所5月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌20美分,收于每桶61.33美元,跌幅为0.33%;6月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌21美分,收于每桶64.67美元,跌幅为0.32%。

  市场消息

  【美欧贸易谈判据悉几无进展】

  据媒体报道,本周欧盟与美国在弥合贸易分歧方面几乎没有取得进展。有特朗普政府的官员透露,美国对欧盟征收的大部分关税将不会被取消。

  当地时间周一(4月14日),欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇(MarosSefcovic)在华盛顿会见了美国商务部长卢特尼克(HowardLutnick)以及贸易代表格里尔(JamiesonGreer),会面持续约两小时。

  根据知情人士的说法,谢夫乔维奇在与美方会晤后,几乎未能厘清美国的立场,难以判断美方的真实意图。知情人士透露,美方官员表示,原计划对欧盟实施的20%“对等”关税以及汽车和金属领域的关税,将不会被取消。

  【白宫预算办公室提议取消美资助联合国维和特派团】

  当地时间4月15日,内部规划文件显示,白宫管理和预算办公室(OMB)提议取消美国对联合国维和特派团的资助。此举是白宫预算办公室对美国国务院预算削减计划的回应。新预算必须得到国会批准。在特朗普的第一个任期,曾提议削减大约三分之一的外交和援助预算,但遭国会拒绝。

  【美国财政部就是否放松美债资本监管规定进行讨论】

  美国财政部副部长MichaelFaulkender表示,官员们正在讨论一项可能针对银行的规则变更。随着上周美债下跌,“补充杠杆率”(SLR)这一监管规定受到的关注直线上升。美债创下的逾二十年最大跌幅引发人们对类似2020年3月市场崩盘情形的担忧。任何规则变更仍需美联储及其他监管机构批准,尽管负责美国金融稳定的监管委员会主席由财政部长担任。Faulkender在一个活动上表示,“我们正调研此事并已经开始讨论”。

  【美共和党据悉考虑对百万富翁设40%税率以抵消减税成本】

  白宫、参议院和众议院的共和党人据悉正在起草分析,研究如何以最佳方式为美国最富裕群体设定新的税级,此举表明美国总统唐纳德·特朗普领导之下的共和党在认真考虑向富人加税的想法。

  据知情人士透露,众议院的提案拟将年收入达到100万美元及以上的纳税人税率设为40%。消息人士指出,参议院及特朗普政府的经济政策顾问也在研究这个想法。一位不愿透露姓名的白宫官员表示,特朗普对设立新的最高税级持开放态度。但这位官员强调,更高税率的起征点应远高于100万美元。

  “我们正在研究并与国会讨论各种潜在的抵消措施,”财政部副部长MichaelFaulkender周二在华盛顿的活动中表示,他指出,虽然还没有做出任何决定,但有“很多、很多想法”在考虑之中,以尽量减少税收法案的总成本。

  【白宫称在停火前提下或与俄建立经济伙伴关系】

  美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示,美国中东问题特使史蒂文·威特科夫和俄罗斯的对话富有成效。威特科夫和特朗普相信俄罗斯希望结束俄乌冲突,俄罗斯有结束这场冲突的动机。莱维特表示,俄罗斯或许可以与美国建立经济伙伴关系,但美国首先需要看到停火,威特科夫和特朗普都向俄罗斯明确表达了这一点。

  【EIA预计美国原油产量将于2027年达到1400万桶/日的峰值】

  美国能源信息署(EIA)周二表示,美国石油产量将在2027年达到1400万桶/日的峰值,并在2030年前保持这一水平,然后迅速下降。美国能源部的统计部门在其《年度能源展望》中称,到2050年,这个世界最大产油国的石油产量将从今年的约1370万桶/日降至约1130万桶/日。同时,预测显示,美国石油需求在新冠疫情后的复苏将于明年结束。在新冠疫情之前的2019年,美国石油消费量平均为2054万桶/日。历史最高纪录是2005年的2080万桶/日。

  【乌称袭击库尔斯克俄军设施以回应其苏梅市遭袭】

  当地时间4月15日,乌克兰武装部队总参谋部通报称,乌克兰武装部队无人系统部队、特种部队和乌克兰国家安全局的部队与乌克兰国防军其他部门合作,袭击了俄军在库尔斯克地区的一些设施,这些设施与4月13日俄对乌苏梅市进行导弹袭击有关。通报称,俄军第448导弹旅在库尔斯克地区的常驻部署点遭到袭击,并记录到弹药的二次爆炸,正在评估相关袭击结果。

  【乌总统与北约秘书长举行会谈讨论对乌军援等】

  乌克兰总统泽连斯基与到访的北约秘书长吕特在敖德萨市举行了会谈。双方重点讨论了乌克兰对防空系统以及其他武器的需求。

  泽连斯基表示,期待欧美支持乌防空的协议能够得到落实。他再次强调,乌克兰需要“爱国者”导弹系统。此外他敦促盟友团结合作生产更多的武器。泽连斯基强调,未来与愿意并且能够保障乌克兰安全的各方结成联盟非常重要。

  吕特则表示,北约继续向乌克兰提供政治和其他形式的援助。吕特称,今年前三个月,北约成员已向乌克兰提供超过200亿欧元的援助。

  【花旗调整未来0-3个月铜、铝价格预测仍持看跌态度】

  花旗将铜0-3个月价格预测从8000美元/吨调整至8800美元/吨;花旗调整0-3个月铝价格预测至2300美元/吨,此前为2200美元/吨。花旗在未来3-6个月仍持看跌态度,预计由于美国已经征收的大量关税,实物铜消费和制造业活动将大幅减弱。

  【特朗普:或许哈佛大学应该失去免税地位】

  美国总统特朗普表示,也许哈佛应该失去免税地位,免税地位取决于公共利益。或许应该将哈佛大学作为政治实体征税。

  【美国iOS应用商店电商应用榜单前三均为中国APP】

  中国跨境电商应用敦煌网(DHgate)在美区AppStore免费总榜中排名大幅上升。至此,美国iOS应用商店电商应用榜单前三均为中国APP,第一为敦煌网,第二为淘宝,第三为SHEIN。

  【OpenAI布局社交网络:对标X平台项目已现早期原型】

  据报道,多位知情人士透露,OpenAI正在打造类似X的社交网络。虽然该项目仍处于早期阶段,但已经有一个专注于ChatGPT图像生成且带有社交动态功能的内部原型。消息人士称,首席执行官奥特曼一直在私下向外部人士征求对该项目的反馈。

  目前尚不清楚OpenAI的计划是将这个社交网络作为一个独立应用发布,还是将其整合到ChatGPT中,ChatGPT在上个月成为全球下载量最高的应用。

  据了解,一个社交应用将为OpenAI提供其特有的实时数据,而X和Meta已经拥有这类数据来帮助训练它们的人工智能模型。

  【特朗普:将加快向英伟达发放所有必要许可】

  当地时间4月15日,针对英伟达承诺斥资5000亿美元在美国独家研发AI超级计算机这一消息,美国总统特朗普在社交平台“真实社交”上发文表示,“这是一个激动人心的重大消息”,特朗普称,将加速办理所有必要的许可并尽快交付给英伟达。

  【花旗集团第一季度净利润41亿美元同比增长21%】

  花旗集团公布第一季度业绩,实现营业收入216亿美元,同比增长3%;净利润为41亿美元,同比增长21%;合每股摊薄收益1.96美元。相比之下,2024年第一季度的收入为210亿美元,净利润为34亿美元,即摊薄后每股收益为1.58美元。

  【美国银行第一季度每股收益0.902美元同比增长18%】

  美国银行公布2025年第一季度业绩,第一季度实现营业收入274亿美元,同比增长11%;每股收益0.902美元,同比增长18%。平均股本回报率为10.4%。美国银行第一季度平均存款余额1.96万亿美元,增长3%。

  【英国巴克莱银行下调美国汽车行业评级至“负面”】

  当地时间4月15日,英国巴克莱银行将美国汽车和移动出行行业评级从“中性”下调至“负面”,并警告称,美国总统特朗普的关税可能会给汽车制造商的盈利带来压力并抑制投资。

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