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唐纳德·特朗普总统呼吁美联储主席降息,与此同时,越来越多迹象显示其贸易战正将美国经济推向衰退边缘。受此影响,美股大幅下跌,美元与长期国债价格走低,黄金价格则逆势上涨。

昨夜标普500指数收盘下跌2.4%,纳斯达克100指数跌幅达2.5%,芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(CboeVIX)徘徊在34左右。特斯拉股价在周二盘后财报发布前暴跌5.7%;沙拉连锁餐厅Sweetgreen(SG.US)宣布首席运营官离职后,股价下跌8.2%。

特朗普对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最新施压,再次引发市场对总统干预美联储政策的担忧。自上周以来,特朗普的一系列抨击,让人们开始质疑美联储能否保持政治独立性——而这种独立性正是美国金融市场信心的基石。与此同时,美联储青睐的通胀指标最新数据仍高于目标水平。

在财报季,特朗普反复无常的贸易政策令市场愈发紧张不安,财报发布高峰也于周二正式开启。许多公司已经下调或取消了年度业绩预期,分析师们也在匆忙下调对美国大型企业的盈利增长预测。

Empower首席投资策略师玛尔塔·诺顿表示:“今日的股价走势反映出三重不利因素:关税背景、财报表现不佳,以及总统对鲍威尔主席的再度施压。特朗普对鲍威尔的不满由来已久,但他4月2日‘解放日’的意外言论,或许让投资者意识到,他在社交媒体上的表态比以往更值得重视。”

其他美国资产也掀起了抛售浪潮。人们愈发质疑美国作为全球资本首选目的地的地位,以及其在国际金融体系中的长期核心作用。美元汇率下滑,国债市场表现分化,长期国债价格下跌,短期国债价格则有所上涨。

多重风险交织,加剧了市场对经济增长与通胀前景的担忧,同时也引发了对美联储如何平衡两者关系的疑问。尽管交易员预计今年美国至少会降息三次,但前纽约联储主席比尔·达德利在彭博社专栏文章中指出,政策制定者的行动速度可能比预期更慢。

标普500指数的11个板块全线下挫,非必需消费品和信息技术板块跌幅居前。

特朗普前后矛盾的贸易政策持续给股票市场带来压力。自特朗普宣布对多数美国贸易伙伴大幅提高关税(一周后又暂停了多项关税措施)以来,标普500指数已累计下跌9%,较2月创下的历史高点跌幅达16%。英伟达股价下跌4.5%,达美航空公司股价下滑3.4%,星座能源集团股价暴跌6.8%。

不过也有例外,流媒体巨头奈飞(NFLX.US)第一季度利润创历史新高,推动其股价收涨1.5%。而特斯拉(TSLA.US)股价则大幅下挫,韦德布什证券公司的丹·艾夫斯指出,这家电动汽车制造商正面临“红色警戒”时刻。

Nationwide首席市场策略师马克·哈克特表示,特朗普政府一直毫不掩饰其降息诉求,但“最终结果难以预测”。他补充称,当前的情况与2018年和2019年类似,“不过,就像关税问题一样,此次公开施压很可能是为了通过舆论影响决策,因为一旦真的解雇美联储主席,无疑将引发市场动荡”。

特朗普一直直言不讳地批评美联储主席降息步伐太慢。虽然法律学者认为总统不能轻易罢免美联储主席,且鲍威尔也无意辞职,但白宫在这一问题上的表态,仍让投资者忧心忡忡。

Glenmede的迈克·雷诺兹表示:“有人担心,通过舆论迫使美联储降息可能会适得其反。我们认为,美联储现任领导层不会因政治因素而左右决策,预计他们仍会依据手头信息,专注于实现双重使命。”

财报季仍在继续,本周特斯拉、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、波音公司(BA.US)和英特尔(INTC.US)等巨头都将发布财报。特斯拉将于周二公布第一季度财报,这家电动汽车制造商正面临埃隆·马斯克引发的品牌危机,同时还要应对关税带来的不确定性。

加拿大加通银行的迈克尔·格雷厄姆认为,目前公布的财报结果“喜忧参半”。格雷厄姆在周一的一份报告中写道:“这些公司的财报尚未完全反映出关税的影响。由于关税导致的支出提前以及经济数据波动,可能还需要几个月时间才能得出确切结论。”

与此同时,摩根士丹利的迈克尔·威尔逊整理的数据显示,标普500指数成分股的盈利预期调整广度(即分析师上调与下调预期的比例)已处于罕见水平,接近经济衰退以外时期的极端低点。

Aureus总裁兼首席执行官萨德·戴维斯表示:“过去几周,市场一直在消化经济放缓的预期,希望大部分调整已经完成。本周对美国企业财报至关重要,专业投资者将仔细研读财报,寻找经济疲软的迹象。”

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