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妈妈女儿齐上阵苏姨-你准备好迎接变化了吗?

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  界面新闻记者|曾令俊

  1元就能成为银行的股东?

  4月21日,界面新闻记者从阿里司法拍卖平台获悉,山东中德信新型材料有限公司(下称:山东中德信)持有的济南农商银行3笔股权合计1.25亿股将以1元/股起拍。除此之外,深圳农商行、兰州农商行、武汉农商行、铜仁农商银行、山东淄川农商行等多家银行也曾上线过1元起拍的股权。

  “低价起拍其实是为了吸引更多的潜在投资者进来,增加拍卖成功的概率,1元起拍不等于1元成交。尽管存在以低价购得标的的机会,但最终以1元成交的情况极为罕见,拍卖捡漏的情况还是很少见。”某城商行特资部人士对界面新闻记者分析说,很多股权无人问津本质还是觉得价格不合适。

  一元起拍依然流拍

  济南农商银行这部分股权的持有人山东中德信,其法人为巴龙集团创始人、前青岛首富姜俊平,山东中德信也是济南农商银行的发起人之一。

  事实上,济南农商银行股权拍卖并非首次。早在3月,阿里司法拍卖平台就显示,济南农商银行两笔大额股权被拍卖,合计9464万股,起拍价约1.05亿元,折合约1.11元/股,同样由山东中德信持有。

  这并不是首个以1元/股起拍的银行。此前,深圳农商银行5万股自然人股在阿里资产交易平台上以起始拍卖价1元的惊人价格公开寻找受让方。

  尽管起拍价仅为1元,但每次加价需达到2000元。数据显示,此次拍卖最终在经过71次竞买后,以价格28.4万元成交。值得注意的是,以2023年的年报数据为参考,深圳农商银行每股净资产价值达5.15元。

  尽管部分银行股权起拍价设定为1元,却依旧无人出价,流拍现象频现。比如,信丰农村商业银行原始股权5万股、武汉农村商业银行约4399.33万股股份等的拍卖都遭遇了流拍。

  据界面新闻记者梳理,在拍卖平台上架的“1元起拍”的银行股权以城商行、农商行为主,多为自然人持股,且不少为流拍后降价处理。

  上述银行特资部人士说,在实际拍卖过程中,经过多轮竞价,股权最终成交价格通常会趋近于银行当前的股权市场估值。“如果待拍卖的银行股权较为分散,且每笔股权占银行总股本的比例较小,对投资者的吸引力相对有限。低起拍价可以增加这些股权的吸引力,吸引更多投资者参与竞拍。”

  据界面新闻记者了解,竞价者还需要缴纳多笔固定费用,比如拍卖保证金,若竞得标的物,保证金将不予退还。拍卖成交后,还需另外支付成交价1%—5%的综合服务费以及0.5%—1%的软件服务费。

  华南某券商银行分析师对界面新闻记者说,非上市银行股权交易价格形成机制较为复杂。定价受机构规模体量、实际经营业绩、卖方预期与交易意愿等多重因素共同作用,使得银行股交易市场存在显著的价格不透明性。

  中小银行股权交易困境

  一个值得思考的问题是,上市银行股票走势强劲。4月21日上午,银行板块延续强劲走势,工农中建交五大行盘中再创历史新高。年初以来,中证银行指数的涨幅为2.66%。然而,中小银行股权为何频频交易遇冷?1元起拍甚至还流拍。

  苏商银行特约研究员薛洪言对界面新闻记者说,这种现象的背后,是银行业自身加速洗牌、两极分化的写照,也表明市场买入银行股权的最底层诉求是经营的可持续性。

  他进一步解释称,大行之所以受到追捧,核心原因是存续无忧,在此基础上,其高分红特征受到青睐;小银行股权之所以无人问津,核心原因是在全行业加速洗牌的大环境下,市场担心其经营可持续性,出价再低也不愿接手。

  上述分析师说,银行股权的投资通常需要一定的资金实力,而且投资后可能面临较长的回报周期和各种风险,如银行经营风险、政策风险等。对于许多投资者来说,这些因素使得他们对银行股权拍卖望而却步,导致流拍现象频发。

  股权1元/股起拍,也反映出当前中小银行股权交易的困境。比如,今年以来兰尉高速持有的中原银行股权分别经历了一拍和二拍。一拍时,起拍价为1.35亿元;二拍的起拍价下调至1.08亿元,但最终也因无人出价而流拍。

  薛洪言表示,当前商业银行经营面临着息差收窄、中收下滑、不良压力增大等挑战,营收出现负增长,盈利增速逐步下台阶,导致投资者对银行经营前景日趋谨慎。尤其是作为优秀代表的上市银行,市净率低于0.5倍的比比皆是。

  “在这种情况下,中小银行股权交易容易陷入两难困境,不低于1倍市净率的定价找不到买家,低于1倍市净率的融资又会侵害原有股东利益,最终结果就是股权交易频频遇冷。”他说。

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