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  每经记者陈植    每经编辑张益铭

  截至4月22日21时,上海期货交易所黄金期货主力合约——沪金2505报824.06元/克,昨天盘中一度创下历史新高835元/克。

沪金2505行情走势图片来源:同花顺iFinD

  这也带火了上海期货交易所黄金期权品种价格的飙涨。

  22日早盘交易时段,沪金2505购888期权品种价格最大涨幅一度达到9800%,沪金2505购896与沪金2505购904品种价格的最大涨幅也一度达到7000%与5500%。

  22日晚间,一位参与境内黄金期货投资的私募基金经理通过微信向《每日经济新闻》记者透露,受国内黄金期货迭创新高影响,短线资金在22日涌入黄金期权市场炒作获利。

  他表示,由于黄金期权品种具有极高的杠杆效应,一旦大量资金涌入黄金期权市场炒高期权品种价格,其涨幅将远远超过黄金期货品种。

  记者注意到,4月21日夜间交易收盘时,沪金2505购888期权品种的交易价格仅有0.02元,但随着22日早盘大量资金涌入炒作,其价格一度涨至1.9元,实现9800%的涨幅。

  在这位私募基金经理看来,沪金2505购888期权品种的价格之所以出现如此大的涨幅,另一个重要因素是黄金期权市场交易流动性较低,导致资金涌入会大幅放大交易品种涨幅。数据显示,4月22日当天,沪金2505购888期权品种在价格大幅上涨期间,成交量仅有2256手,成交金额为266.93万元。

  他表示,目前参与黄金期权投资交易的投资者,主要是期货投资人、擅长期货期权量化交易的专业投资机构与部分擅长黄金套保的黄金贸易商。前两者主要采取短线投资获利策略——毕竟,沪金2505购888期权品种将在4月24日到期,若投资者对未来两天沪金期货2505合约价格触及888元/克缺乏信心,其持有的这份期权品种金额将归零。因此,他们需赶在这个期权品种到期前,迅速逢高抛售获利离场。

  记者注意到,截至4月22日收盘,沪金2505购888期权品种交易价格回落至0.86元,显示部分炒作资金已获利离场。

  上述私募基金经理指出,在4月22日之前,黄金期权品种几乎“少人问津”。究其原因,是黄金期权对投资者设定了较高的准入门槛。

  根据相关规定,投资者在申请期权交易开户前的五个交易日内,账户日均可用资金不得低于10万元人民币;此外,投资者需要在近三年内具有至少10笔期货或期权的实际交易记录,或累计10个交易日、20笔以上的仿真交易记录。

  与此同时,投资者需通过期货业协会组织的期权基础知识测试,且成绩需达到80分以上,并通过相关的风险承受能力评估,评估结果需达到C4级或以上等。

  因此,目前参与黄金期权投资交易的投资者,主要以期货投资人、专业投资机构与黄金贸易商为主。

  在这位私募基金经理看来,4月22日沪金2505购888等黄金期权品种价格之所以出现如此大的涨幅,一个重要原因是沪金期货主力合约快速上涨突破830元/克,让部分黄金期权投资者看到这些黄金期权品种“行权”的更高可能性,纷纷加仓买入推高沪金2505购888等黄金期权品种交易价格。

沪金2505购888期权品种价格最大涨幅一度达到9800%图片来源:同花顺iFinD

  这背后,是黄金期货与黄金期权交易价格波动有着较强的关联性。随着黄金期货价格持续快速上涨,市场预期相关黄金期权到期行权的几率日益增加,对黄金期权的追捧度随之升温,带动黄金期权价格相应水涨船高。

  而且,黄金期权市场流动性相对较低,增量资金的入场将迅速放大相关黄金期权价格的涨幅。

  在他看来,这些黄金期权投资者敢于大幅炒高沪金2505购888等黄金期权品种的价格,还受到本周以来COMEX黄金期货价格持续快速大幅上涨的“激励”,令他们感到未来黄金涨势或将“一发不可收拾”。

  国信期货认为,近期全球市场避险情绪显著升温,尤其是投资者对美国货币政策独立性的深度担忧,叠加高盛等国际投行对美元长期贬值的预判,令作为“去美元化”核心载体的黄金获得双重溢价支撑。

  “但是,这波针对沪金2505购888等黄金期权品种的买涨行情,更像是短期炒作。”这位私募基金经理直言。22日中午,有私募基金同行询问他是否参与黄金期权投资并收获不菲回报,他回复道:“没有参与,因为这更是昙花一现的市场异动。”

  这位私募基金经理之所以认为黄金期权价格的飙涨行情仅仅是“昙花一现”,是因为出现数十倍涨幅的沪金2505购888等黄金期权品种都将在4月24日到期。

  以沪金2505购888期权品种为例,若黄金期货沪金2505没能在4月24日到期前触及888元/克,这款期权品种将因无法行权而“价值归零”。

  “这意味着未来两个交易日沪金2505期货品种还需继续上涨至少6.5%。尽管当前黄金期货价格涨势强劲,但能否在未来两个交易日实现逾6.5%涨幅,我心里没底。”上述私募基金经理向记者直言。目前而言,和他持有类似观点的黄金期权投资者为数不少,这也是22日午后,沪金2505购888期权品种交易价格从最高1.9元大幅回落的一大原因。因为面对沪金2505购888期权品种在周四到期日价值归零的风险,部分参与早盘黄金期权炒作的投资者果断选择落袋为安。

  记者注意到,截至4月22日收盘,沪金2505购888期权品种交易价格跌至0.86元。

  在这位私募基金经理看来,若未来两个交易日黄金期货价格涨幅较低,沪金2505购888期权品种交易价格将进一步回落。因为在周四到期前,黄金期货价格离888元/克行权价格越遥远,沪金2505购888期权品种“价值归零”的几率相应更高。

  此外,由于期权品种在到期前还面临流动性进一步收窄的状况,若投资者无法迅速套现离场,手里的沪金2505购888期权品种一旦在周四到期时价值归零,相关投资也将面临血本无归风险。

  这位私募基金经理指出,黄金期权品种的投资获利/亏损逻辑有别于期货与股票,在黄金期权品种到期时,若黄金期货价格超过期权品种行权价,投资者将通过行权获得更高的投资回报,反之黄金期货价格低于期权品种行权价,投资者手里的期权头寸将无法行权而价值归零,承受相应的权利金损失。因此,在黄金期权临近到期时,投资者一方面需做好仓位管理,另一方面要时刻关注黄金期货价格变化与期权行权几率高低,及时采取止盈止损举措,避免额外的投资风险。

  记者获悉,临近到期日时,标的资产价格的大幅波动往往会引发相关期权价格的剧烈变化,形成业内俗称的“末日轮”行情。但是,“末日轮”行情的特点是胜率低、风险大,因此止盈是末日轮交易的关键。如果不及时止盈,虚值期权的最终价格都会归零。

  花旗集团首席经济学家内森・希茨周二表示,由于美国经济受到唐纳德・特朗普总统对贸易伙伴征关税的影响,美国经济衰退的概率在40%至45%之间。

  希茨预计,受消费者在关税生效前抢购商品的推动,美国第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)将实现增长。希茨在一次电话会议上向客户表示,预计关税对美国经济增长的最大影响将在今年下半年显现。

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