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  来源:金十数据

  桥水基金创始人达利欧(RayDalio)近日在接受采访时警告,若当前金融、经济和贸易问题“处理不当”,可能引发“比衰退更严重的后果”。他进一步指出,局势恶化可能导致“世界秩序陷入巨大冲突”。

  对此,前美国经济增长、能源和环境副国务卿、前高盛国际副主席RobertDavid深表认同——甚至认为这一警告可能还过于保守。类似的警报并非孤例。David还担任过亨利·基辛格的高级经济顾问。

  达利欧的言论引发了David对世界应对未来金融危机能力的深切忧虑。David亲历了多次危机及其解决谈判。成功的关键不仅在于主要参与方的金融手腕,更在于彼此信任的合作意愿。

  这种信任基础如今已荡然无存。在David职业生涯中,从未见过世界在如此多经济政治议题上陷入如此深刻的不信任状态。这种不信任将成为未来金融危机谈判中的致命弱点——除非人们在危机爆发前就意识到并设法克服它。

  各国高层必须认真思考:在增长放缓、债务攀升、通胀压力、关税冲突和汇率波动的多重风险下,在充满对抗的政治环境中,如何应对可能爆发的新危机?这将是个巨大挑战,而失败将影响所有美国人乃至全球每个人。

  美国与主要盟友间的关税摩擦,已经破坏、在某些方面甚至是摧毁了过去解决危机所依赖的互信。激烈的贸易争端将使它们在新危机中的合作变得异常艰难。

  雪上加霜的是,华盛顿正在研究美国是否应退出国际货币基金组织(IMF)——应对全球危机的核心机构。同时,美国政府高层正在讨论是否应解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。鲍威尔在全球市场和政策制定者中享有极高信誉,是解决任何新危机的关键人物。这两大因素进一步加剧了本已高企的不确定性和不稳定性风险。

  面对这种敌意、摩擦与不确定性,正在华盛顿参加IMF春季会议的各国央行行长和财长们——他们曾是化解历次危机的中坚力量——亟需找到规避或应对重大金融危机威胁的方案。

  过去通常由一个大国主导危机应对进程,或负责召集关键各方。这个角色多由美国与IMF共同承担。如果此次美国不愿或不被信任担任这一角色,谁来接棒?

  历史上有过先例:1970年代,前法国总统德斯坦曾在系列危机中召集G7国家;现任法国总统马克龙和加拿大总理卡尼都具备深厚的金融背景。但更根本的问题是:当前是否有国家能获得广泛国际支持担当此任?如果没有,全球经济注定陷入混乱。

  David表示,因不确定性、经济民族主义、关税冲突升级、债务激增和汇率动荡而风声鹤唳的金融界,应将此列入最高关注事项,敦促各国政治和金融领袖制定基于协作的应急预案。凭借政治智慧、意志与信任,各国曾多次化险为夷。但若缺乏充分预案和信任合作的意愿,一场全球金融灾难可能已近在眼前。

  4月22日金融一线消息,南京银行发布2024年年度报告。2024年,公司实现营业总收入502.73亿元,同比增长11.32%;归母净利润201.77亿元,同比增长9.05%;扣非净利润199.37亿元,同比增长11.22%;经营活动产生的现金流量净额为-657.95亿元,上年同期为370.59亿元;报告期内,南京银行基本每股收益为1.83元,加权平均净资产收益率为12.97%。公司2024年度分配预案为:拟向全体股东每10股派现2.1176元(含税)。

  4月22日金融一线消息,南京银行发布2024年度报告。南京银行行长朱钢发布致辞称,实干为要,奋斗以成。2025年,南京银行将紧扣国家战略、强化服务大局,坚守金融工作的政治性、人民性,统筹好功能性和盈利性,更好践行国内系统重要性银行的责任担当。以深化落实金融“五篇大文章”为主线,不断提高服务实体经济的能力和水平,围绕发展新质生产力、大力提振消费、扩大高水平对外开放持续加力,为区域经济社会发展提供高质量金融服务;以调优经营发展模式为牵引,深入推进业务结构调整和新增长点布局,强化客户经营,创新产品服务,释放改革活力,推动均衡、可持续发展,增强穿越周期的韧性和底气;以提升内部管理效能为重心,优化资产负债配置,提高协同运作效率,加强全面风险合规管控,拓展金融科技和数字化工具应用,为精益经营提供更强支撑。随着新五年规划的全面推进实施,我们将进一步强化战略引领与战略执行,全方位提升转型和高质量发展的加速度,加快打造国内一流的区域综合金融服务商,努力以更优经营质态回馈客户、股东和社会各界的信任与支持。

  以下为致辞全文:

  2024年,是南京银行新一轮战略周期的开篇之年。面对充满挑战的市场环境,我们深入贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署,紧跟宏观政策导向与行业发展趋势,积极服务经济社会高质量发展,稳健经营,改革进取,向新而行,推动业绩指标呈现量、质共进的良好态势。截至2024年末,集团资产总额2.59万亿元,增幅13.25%;贷款总额1.26万亿元,增幅14.31%;存款总额1.50万亿元,增幅9.26%。营业收入502.73亿元,同比增长11.32%,归母净利润201.77亿元,同比增长9.05%。不良贷款率0.83%,较上年末下降0.07个百分点,风险抵补能力继续保持较好水平。

  我们立足深耕区域,全面提升金融服务质效。深入践行服务地方经济、服务中小微企业、服务城乡居民“三个服务”功能定位,围绕长三角一体化发展、长江经济带建设等国家战略,紧贴区域经济发展脉搏和企业、居民的多样化金融服务需求,加大信贷投入,优化资源配置,对公贷款和零售贷款均实现较快增长,增幅分别为14.86%、12.75%。坚持为实体经济提供更多源头活水,科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融贷款增幅分别为37.55%、25.20%、15.86%,数字金融发力应用场景,养老金融加快业务布局,体系化推进落实金融“五篇大文章”取得积极成效。

  我们推进精益经营,着力实现多元价值创造。优化公司金融展业模式,紧扣客户服务与经营,加强信贷、投行、交易银行、国际业务产品的综合化运用,深化金融服务生态圈建设,带动优质客群覆盖度持续提升。集聚零售金融转型动能,代发、代销、私行业务有力拓展,面向零售客户的资产配置与财富管理能力进一步增强;加快个人贷款产品体系搭建与渠道场景拓展,推动零售贷款实现规模、结构、效益均衡发展,南银法巴消金公司迈入行业第一方阵。发挥金融市场业务优势,把握市场机遇,稳健精细运作,取得了跑赢大市的经营成果;南银理财、鑫元基金两家子公司发展态势良好,业务协同效应有效彰显。深化降本增效系列举措,通过加强负债质量管理和财务精细化管理,实现了负债成本的有效控制、运营成本的合理管控。提升风险防控的前瞻性和有效性,抓实重点领域、重点环节风险防范,加大不良资产处置化解力度,坚决守牢安全发展底线。

  我们强化数字驱动,加快科技全价值链赋能。主动拥抱科技变革的时代浪潮,坚持守正创新,以强化“数实融合、数字赋能、数据底座”为抓手,全面推进数字化能力建设,为高质量发展提供关键驱动力。聚焦对公业务数字化服务,推动20多款产品服务实现全流程线上化,持续打造“鑫e小微”“鑫e政务”“鑫云e链”等拳头产品;聚焦零售客户经营模式优化,上线零售一体化移动服务平台,打造“行销+坐销”综合化线上服务能力,同时进一步提升手机银行APP智能体验,APP用户数增长27.93%、月活跃用户数(MAU)增长22.24%;聚焦增强管理支撑效能,推动关键业务流程优化重塑,健全完善绩效考核系统、员工统一工作台等数字工具,有力促进客户体验优化、价值创造引导和运营效率提升;聚焦智能风控体系建设,通过科技手段嵌入,提高风险识别、评估、监控与处置的及时性与精准性,助推实现风控场景化、作业自动化和决策智能化;聚焦打造“AI+金融”创新范式,加快完善大模型和智能应用体系,依托人工智能驱动转型发展,以开放姿态探索金融数智化无限可能。

  实干为要,奋斗以成。2025年,南京银行将紧扣国家战略、强化服务大局,坚守金融工作的政治性、人民性,统筹好功能性和盈利性,更好践行国内系统重要性银行的责任担当。以深化落实金融“五篇大文章”为主线,不断提高服务实体经济的能力和水平,围绕发展新质生产力、大力提振消费、扩大高水平对外开放持续加力,为区域经济社会发展提供高质量金融服务;以调优经营发展模式为牵引,深入推进业务结构调整和新增长点布局,强化客户经营,创新产品服务,释放改革活力,推动均衡、可持续发展,增强穿越周期的韧性和底气;以提升内部管理效能为重心,优化资产负债配置,提高协同运作效率,加强全面风险合规管控,拓展金融科技和数字化工具应用,为精益经营提供更强支撑。随着新五年规划的全面推进实施,我们将进一步强化战略引领与战略执行,全方位提升转型和高质量发展的加速度,加快打造国内一流的区域综合金融服务商,努力以更优经营质态回馈客户、股东和社会各界的信任与支持。

  根据基于欧洲天然气基础设施(GIE)提供的数据计算,欧洲地下储气库(UGS)的每日注气速率已增至去年8月以来的最高水平,且本月的总体注气量几乎与去年同期持平。此外,欧洲4月份以创纪录的速率进口液化天然气。

  据GIE称,4月20日,欧盟国家地下储气库的注气量达3.49亿立方米,而采气量已降至1100万立方米。4月的采气量比去年同期低7%,注气量则低4%。地下储气库中的天然气总量为405亿立方米,比去年同期低40%。

  欧洲地下储气库目前的储气率为37.04%(比过去五年同期的平均水平低10.6个百分点),而去年同期为62.2%。

  欧盟委员会要求欧盟各国确保其地下储气库在每年11月1日前达到90%的储气率,以确保冬季有充足的储备,为供应中断或异常寒冷的天气做好准备。

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