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今年以来,上海楼市延续去年下半年的回暖态势,走出一波“小阳春”行情。其中,二手房交易活跃度持续攀升,月成交套数连续6个月超过1.5万套的荣枯线,其中3月份达到2.7万套,创2021年以来同期新高。此外,机构监测数据显示,3月,上海新建商品住宅成交面积环比增加145.1%,也是一季度成交最多的月份。

房地产投资开发数据也印证了市场的复苏。

4月23日,上海市统计局公布2025年第一季度上海市房地产开发、经营基本情况。数据显示,一季度上海房地产开发投资同比增长5.1%;商品房施工面积同比增长7.3%,其中住宅施工面积同比增长9.5%;住宅销售面积为329.78万平方米,同比增长2.2%。

上海中原地产市场分析师卢文曦认为,自去年10月以来,房地产市场政策效应持续释放,上海楼市交易的活跃度稳步提升。今年一季度,无论是土地、新房还是二手房市场数据都比较亮眼,形成协同共振的良性循环态势。

二手房成交“高速奔跑”

据上海中原地产监测的数据,今年3月,上海二手住宅累计成交2.69万套,环比增加75%,同比增加45.36%。这一成交量超过2024年12月的高点,并且也是2022年以来成交量最高的3月。

从交易节奏来看,整个3月成交都处于“高速奔跑”状态,每周的成交套数都在5600套以上,并且是逐周向上走势。

一些先行指标,如带看、新增客户等也都和去年12月的水平相当。根据太平洋房屋提供的数据,今年1-3月,上海全市的挂牌量有所上升,带看量也持续提升,特别是浦东以及闵行,市场活跃度进一步提升。

截至今年3月末,上海二手房的月成交套数已经连续6个月超过了枯荣线。

4月以来,上海二手房市场依旧维持热度。根据网上房地产数据统计,截至4月22日,上海4月份二手房(含商业)网签量已有16805套,近两周的周末单日平均网签量为1187套,其中单日最高网签量为1261套。

二手房价格也出现止跌回升迹象。上海中原地产二手住宅价格指数显示,3月指数环比上涨0.75%。从今年前三个月的指数变化来看,呈现1月、3月环比上涨,2月环比下跌走势,趋势上,呈现波动、筑底的信号明显。

3月半数新盘认购率超100%

新房市场在“金三”传统旺季加持下也加速回暖,多个项目开盘即售罄。

上海中原地产数据显示,3月,上海新建商品住宅成交面积68.3万平方米,环比增加145.1%,也是一季度成交最多的月份。

据上海中原的监测数据,3月入市的29个项目中,6个为单价“10万+”楼盘,6个为单价8万元/平方米-10万元/平方米的高端改善项目。从市场投放可以看出,偏中高端改善项目依旧是市场重点关注产品,并且有不错的去化结果。此外,部分郊区的首次改善项目也是市场交易重要构成部分,包括位于宝山的四季隐秀、浦东的金海汀雲台等均保持不错的去化节奏。

数据显示,29个楼盘中近半数认购率超过100%,有7个“日光”项目。其中3个单价“10万+”项目均在开盘当天售罄。

从4月以来的表现看,不少项目延续认购热度,多盘触发高积分有望推动“日光盘”加速扩容。例如,4月21日,位于上海浦东新区内中环的浦发・莲园开盘即售罄,该项目首批112套房源引来357组客户争抢,入围分为58.1分。位于浦东新区杨思区域的翡雲悦府则成功刷新今年上海新盘最高认购数,该项目228套房源吸引近千组客户,入围积分近64分,为今年以来最高入围积分;位于闵行梅陇的保利海上印,认购首日认购超190组,认购率190%,直接触发积分规则。

业内认为,随着二手房市场交易活跃,市场交易链条顺畅,不少业主顺势置换新房,推动市场持续升温。新房市场中,部分热门项目触发积分,更有不少楼盘开盘即售罄。尽管并非所有项目都触发积分,但市场整体热度提升显著。

土地市场再现激烈竞争,溢价率攀升

土地市场的热度上涨,也是房地产市场整体回暖的一环。在今年3月28日的上海第三批次土地拍卖现场,位于静安区大宁板块的一宗住宅用地吸引9位竞买人参与竞拍,经过67轮竞价,大华以24.86亿元的总价竞得,溢价率32.31%,成交楼板价为92659元/平方米,刷新大宁板块宅地单价纪录;另一宗位于浦东北蔡的地块则被绿城以总价29.16亿元竞得,地块成交楼板价为71412元/平方米,溢价率40%,创下该区域的地价纪录。

中指研究院上海企业常务副总经理程宇指出,今年1-3月,上海房地产市场延续平稳基调,土地市场与新房供需双向活跃。一季度全市共成交10宗涉宅用地,其中9宗溢价,5宗溢价率超30%,核心区域优质地块竞争激烈,房企拿地积极性显著提升。

在卢文曦看来,今年以来,多地出现土地高溢价成交现象,部分地块更是刷新区域楼板价纪录。随着优质地块的出让,不仅提升了市场预期,也增强了区域内优质二手房业主的信心。以核心区域为例,优质地块周边的次新房房东议价空间收窄,为房源去化创造了有利条件。

与此同时,“两旧一村”改造政策在去库存、激发市场需求方面也发挥了重要作用。

在2025上海“民生访谈”中,上海市住房城乡建设管理委主任、上海市房屋管理局局长王桢表示,今年上海将加快“两旧一村”改造,计划完成剩余12万平方米零星旧改任务,涉及4354户居民,还将完成31万平方米旧住房成套改造,基本完成小梁薄板房屋改造,并启动25个城中村改造项目。今年一季度已认定6个项目。

业内认为,大量因改造产生的刚性和改善性购房需求涌入市场,也将成为楼市止跌回稳的有力支撑。从市场趋势而言,3月市场的成交量足够多,给4月留出足够空间,即便成交量有回落,也会稳定在活跃区间运行。

澎湃新闻记者计思敏

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  4月24日消息,美股周三继续向好,中美贸易战持续降温,有利大市气氛,道指一度升幅接近1,200点,尾市升幅略为回顺,三大指数仍录得显著升幅收市。美元走势向上,美国十年期债息下滑至4.38厘水平,金价显著回落,油价表现亦受压。

  今日港股三大指数集体高开,恒生指数跌0.19%,报22030.15点,恒生科指跌0.08%,国企指数跌0.29%。盘面上,科网股涨跌不一,小米集团涨超1%,京东集团、美团跌超1%,快手跌近1%;黄金股再度回暖,山东黄金、赤峰黄金涨超3%;汽车股普涨,蔚来涨超3%。

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