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  来源:华尔街见闻

  截至上午收市,沪金2505购888最大涨幅9800%。暴涨主要有两方面原因:一是上述期权对标的上海黄金期货早盘大涨,二是期权市场的“末日轮”效应加重波动。根据安排,沪金2505期权的到期日为4月24日,仅剩余不到3个交易日。

  今日,黄金价格继续大涨,引发了期权市场“末日轮”效应。

  截至上午收市,上期所沪金期权多张深度虚值认购合约价格暴涨。其中,沪金2505购888最大涨幅9800%,沪金2505购896最大涨幅7000%,沪金2505购904最大涨幅5500%。

  此外,行权价在856到936之间的沪金2505认购合约,上午涨幅均超1000%。

  两方面因素催生暴涨

  沪金期权多张合约早盘暴涨,主要有两方面原因:

  一是上述期权对标的上海黄金期货早盘大涨。截至上午收市,沪金2505合约上涨4.24%,为4月份以来的最大单日涨幅。

  国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示,近期全球市场避险情绪显著升温,尤其是投资者对美国货币政策独立性的深度担忧,叠加高盛等国际投行对美元长期贬值的预判,使得作为“去美元化”核心载体的黄金获得双重溢价支撑。

  二是期权市场的“末日轮”效应恰好加重了上述期权的日内波动。根据安排,沪金2505期权的到期日为4月24日,仅剩余不到3个交易日。

  与股票不同,期权价格波动并非线性,主要受到内在价值和时间价值两部分影响。其中,时间价值会随着到期日的临近而慢慢减少,直到合约到期时归零。因此,临近到期的深度虚值合约具有权利金成本极低的特点,例如上午暴涨9800%的沪金2505购888合约,其昨日夜盘价格最低不足0.1元/手。

  这种低成本使得期权合约具有极高的杠杆效应,当黄金价格每上涨1%时,期权价格可能出现50%、100%甚至更大的涨幅。这种杠杆效应吸引了众多通过小资金博取高额回报的投资者。临近到期日时,标的资产价格的大幅波动往往会引发相关期权价格的剧烈变化,这也是业内俗称的“末日轮”行情。

  风险不可忽视

  但必须强调的是,虽然部分期权品种今日涨幅较大,但在实际交易过程中还是存在诸多风险。特别是对于普通个人投资者而言,在未能熟知期权相关交易规则的情况下,贸然进场风险极大。 

  最为关键的风险点在于,一旦黄金价格未在到期前突破行权价,虚值合约将因时间价值耗尽而归零。因此,今日收获几十倍涨幅的虚值期权存在价值“归零”的风险。

  还是以沪金2505购888合约为例,若在不足3天的到期日之前,对应的黄金期货2505合约价格未能触及888元/克(截至今日上午收盘为832.72元/克),那么届时持有该期权的投资者将损失全部权利金。

  除此之外,“末日轮”行情的风险点还包括波动率下降风险、流动性枯竭风险等。

  业内人士表示,相比于股票或者期货而言,期权是一个非线性衍生品。在期权到期的时候,实值期权的买方可以去行使权利,而虚值期权的价值则会归零。这提醒投资者,在买入临近到期的虚值期权时,应做好仓位管理,同时注意止盈止损的问题,否则市场中的流动性风险及行情波动都有可能将利润回吐甚至出现大幅亏损。

  华融融达期货期权首席顾问王翔告诉记者,“末日轮”行情并不是每次合约到期都会发生,相反其概率很小,交易中存在胜率低的问题。“末日轮行情的特点是胜率低、风险大,因此止盈是末日轮交易的关键。如果不及时止盈,虚值期权的最终价格都会归零。”

  本文作者:费天元,来源:上海证券报,原文标题:《金价引发奇观!9800%》

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

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