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变成黑皮辣妹和朋友做了个:怒火中烧的游戏时刻,绝地反击引发热议!
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变成黑皮辣妹和朋友做了个:怒火中烧的游戏时刻,绝地反击引发热议!

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公司亮点

公司目前是全球最大的纵向一体化针织成衣制造商之一,主要客户为耐克、优衣库、阿迪等全球服装巨头。公司拥有穿越周期的高盈利能力主要得益于几大优势。1)ODM强研发能力。公司通过较强研发能力研发出了Flyknit等多种高性能、环保型面料,深度绑定核心客户。2)一体化生产提升效率。公司面料织造、染整、印绣花及裁缝集中在同一工业区内进行,并且深度推进数字化改造,提升供货效率、产品质量、面料利用率。3)多元海外工厂布局。公司目前中国/越南/柬埔寨产能占比分别为47%/27%/26%,海外产能布局享有税收及劳动力成本优势。公司凭借多元优势在生产端拥有较强的规模效应,盈利水平领跑行业。

投资逻辑:

关税层面:我们认为公司整体风险可控,相较行业其他公司拥有比较优势。1)公司凭借多元产能与全球大客户开展合作,目前出口美国比例仅为16%,我们测算此次加征关税若传递到终端对公司整体订单影响或小于3%。2)此次关税风波并不会影响公司东南亚产能的劳动力和生产效率优势。同时我们预计此次关税风波会带来行业的冲击与洗牌,或加速行业小微企业的出局,公司无论从资金还是从盈利能力方面都具备更强的抗风险能力,有望借此机会拓展市场份额。3)公司执行董事兼主席马建荣在关税事件后连续增持45万股,合计2068万港元,彰显公司高层的信心。

短期订单:核心4大客户整体趋势向好,看好公司订单情况改善。

优衣库凭借全球化优质供应链与产品维持了良好的品牌势能,迅销FY25Q1(9-11月)营收同比增长超10%,存货周转天数为109天,维持在健康水平;阿迪达斯自23Q1换帅后品牌力处于恢复通道,1)阿迪产品力好转加库存减轻有助于公司接单显著改善。2)阿迪本土化供应链策略匹配公司东南亚多国产能布局,有助公司获得超额订单;耐克目前经营情况筑底,24Q4换帅后有望复制阿迪的品牌复苏路径;彪马保持稳健成长。

长期市占率:受益于大客户聚焦核心供应商。阿迪和耐克近年供应商数量呈现下降趋势。阿迪合作供应商数量从2018年的130家下降至2023年104家,其中和合作10年以上的供应商占比在2023年达到峰值74%。我们推断头部客户正在减少管理半径,提升管理效率,预计公司在大客户体内的份额仍将保持稳健增长的趋势。

盈利预测、估值和评级

我们预计25-27年公司EPS分别为4.39/4.91/5.48元,对应25年PE为11倍,为近十年最低水平,我们对公司业绩进行敏感性测算,假设公司25年没有增长且公司所有财务数据与2024年相同,中性情况下(公司承担5%的关税以及美国订单下降20%时)公司业绩受到约6%的影响,我们认为公司深度绑定大客户,拥有全球订单,有望较好化解关税带来的冲击。我们认为近期股价有所超跌,给予公司25年PE14倍估值,目标价65.17港元(按照4月14日港元兑人民币汇率0.943计算),首次覆盖,给予“买入”评级。

风险提示

大客户品牌恢复不及预期、关税风险、汇率波动风险、大客户较为集中风险。

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