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  要点

  在关税引发的市场波动中,投资者纷纷逃离股票市场,转而青睐现金等他们认为的避风港资产。

  专家表示,现金可能感觉更安全,但对于长期储蓄者来说,它也伴随着风险。

  随着时间推移,现金利率通常远远落后于股票回报率,而且在考虑通货膨胀因素后,其利率往往为负。

2025年4月10日,交易员们在纽约证券交易所的交易大厅工作

  在近期股票市场动荡的情况下,投资者可能会有将资金转为现金的冲动。理财顾问称,虽然现金可能比股票感觉更安全,但对于长期储蓄者而言,它也可能带来风险。

  专家表示,现金,比如存放在高收益银行储蓄账户或货币市场基金中的资金,在短期内的波动性远低于股票。

  但从历史数据来看,长期而言现金的回报率低于股票。持有超出所需的现金,而不是进行投资,会增加无法实现投资目标的风险。

  先锋集团(Vanguard)在一篇分析股票和现金回报率的报告中指出,其结果是:持有大量现金的投资者可能会发现实现长期投资目标颇具挑战性,因此可能不得不将更多的可支配收入用于储蓄。

  尽管股票在短期内波动性更大,但从长远来看其表现优于现金。

  股票和现金的一年期及二十年期回报率|1960年-2022年

注:数据为澳大利亚、奥地利、比利时、加拿大、中国、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、爱尔兰、意大利、日本、荷兰、新西兰、挪威、葡萄牙、俄罗斯、南非、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、英国和美国的名义全球回报率。

  来源:先锋集团

  随着特朗普政府有关关税和贸易的声明,以及中国等主要贸易伙伴宣布的报复性措施,美国股票市场基准指数大幅波动,投资者纷纷逃离股票市场,转向他们认为的避风港资产。

  本月早些时候白宫宣布针对特定国家的关税后,标准普尔500指数经历了自新冠疫情初期以来表现最差的两天,跌幅约为11%。

  与此同时,据退休计划管理机构AlightSolutions的数据,4月7日401(k)计划的交易量达到了自2020年3月12日以来的最高水平。Alight的数据显示,约94%的资金流向了货币市场、债券和稳定价值基金等保守型资产。

  现金的利与弊

  现金确实有一些好处。

  例如,佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔市LifePlanningPartners公司的创始人、注册理财规划师卡罗琳・麦克拉纳汉表示,即使股票市场出现动荡,当投资者遇到紧急情况或有重大采购需求时,现金随时可用。

  麦克拉纳汉是美国全国广播公司财经频道(CNBC)理财顾问委员会的成员,她在一封电子邮件中写道:“每个人都应该持有一些现金和一些股票。”

  但根据晨星公司(Morningstar)的说法,现金“长期以来”提供的是负的“实际”回报率,即考虑通货膨胀因素后的回报率。

  专家表示,换句话说,考虑通货膨胀因素后,持有100%现金投资组合的消费者实际上会随着时间的推移而损失财富。如果现金利率跟不上物价上涨的步伐,消费者的购买力就会下降。

  麦克拉纳汉称,与此同时,股票具有高增长的潜力,尤其是从长期来看,但也伴随着风险。

  麦克拉纳汉说:“市场的起起落落可能会让人感到不安,如果你需要用钱,却无法挺过市场低迷期,可能就不得不承受损失。”

  她写道:“每个投资组合都应该根据客户承担风险的财务和心理能力,在安全资产和风险资产之间进行分散配置。”

  如何考虑现金与股票的配置比例

  麦克拉纳汉表示,仍处于“积累”储蓄阶段的投资者,也就是仍在工作、将一部分收入用于储蓄的人,应该在一个易于支取的基金中持有足够的现金,以应对紧急情况。

  她还说,他们还应该持有未来五年内可能用于重大采购的现金,比如购房首付、购车费用或学费支出。

  在波动中管理你的资金

  麦克拉纳汉说,其余资金应根据投资期限,以及“承担风险的财务和心理能力”配置到股票和债券中。例如,距离退休还有10年的人,其投资组合中股票的比例相对于距离退休还有30年的人应该更低。

  麦克拉纳汉称,已经退休或即将退休的人,由于需要开始从投资组合中支取资金,应该持有足够的现金、短期债券和定期存单,以满足五年的收入需求,以及任何即将到来的重大采购需求。

  她说,其余资金应配置在一个由固定收益类资产和股票组成的多元化投资组合中。

  专家称,即使是退休人员,一般也需要将部分投资组合配置到股票中:他们可能需要依靠投资组合维持三十年甚至更长时间的生活,这意味着为了避免资金耗尽,一定的投资增长是必要的。

  麦克拉纳汉在一封电子邮件中写道,所有投资者都应该制定一个投资策略,明确“他们将在股票、固定收益(债券)和现金上的配置比例,并且无论市场行情好坏,都应坚持这一投资策略”。

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