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  财联社4月16日讯(编辑黄君芝)美国银行业高管们相继发出警告称,到目前为止,美国消费者支出受益于强劲的工资增长和低失业率,但如果唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易政策引发的动荡持续下去,美国消费者支出将面临巨大风险。

  而众所周知,美国消费者一向被认为是美国经济的“基石”。

  现状仍乐观

  据悉,虽然对美国贸易伙伴征收的高额关税引发了人们对物价上涨的担忧,但3月份4.2%的低失业率和3.8%的年工资增长率让人们的焦虑有所缓解。

  花旗集团(Citigroup)首席财务官MarkMason对分析师表示:“消费者在支出方面继续保持弹性。”这番言论标志着近几周少有的乐观情绪,暗示如果消费者支出保持在当前水平,经济衰退是可以避免的。

  摩根大通(JPM.N)首席财务官JeremyBarnum上周表示:“到目前为止,最重要的变量是失业率。如果就业市场保持强劲,消费者信贷可能会很好。”

  美银首席财务官AlastairBorthwick周二也表示:“我们的客户继续显示出令人鼓舞的迹象。目前来自消费者的信号是,美国经济仍处于良好状态。”

  压力四伏

  然而,部分支出势头可能是短暂的,因为一些消费者正在提前购买关税后可能变得更贵的商品。

  Barnum说:“我已经看到了一些公司专门宣传‘关税前库存’……从4月数据来看,我们看到支出似乎有一点提前增加。”

  根据纽约联邦储备银行(FederalReserveBankofNewYork)的一份报告,美国家庭还在努力应对创纪录的18.04万亿美元债务,这可能会降低他们的自由消费能力。

  晨星的分析师则表示,恢复偿还学生贷款也可能带来压力。今年2月,美国一家上诉法院裁定,前拜登政府没有权力推行一项学生债务减免计划,该计划旨在降低数百万借款人的月供,并加快部分人的贷款减免。

  分析师们指出,任何额外的压力都可能给低收入家庭带来特别大的压力。富国银行(WellsFargo)首席执行官CharlieScharf最近警告称,不太富裕的客户正显示出压力迹象,而花旗集团的Mason则表示,支出已从旅游和娱乐转向必需品。

  衰退风险

  尽管一些人预测美国第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)将萎缩,且对通胀感到担忧,但白宫迄今一直回避有关衰退的言论。

  摩根大通首席执行官杰米•戴蒙(JamieDimon)表示,该行经济学家估计,经济衰退的可能性为50%,而高盛(GoldmanSachs)首席执行官大卫•所罗门(DavidSolomon)表示,经济衰退的可能性有所增加。

  美国经济分析局(BureauofEconomicAnalysis)将于4月30日公布第一季度GDP初值,这可能为美国经济提供新的线索。

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