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  每经记者张寿林    每经编辑张益铭

  中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。

  会议强调,要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。

  邮储银行研究员娄飞鹏在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出,在我国经济回升向好的同时,需要适度宽松的货币政策加大调控力度,在总量上降准降息,保持流动性充裕;通过结构性货币政策工具激励引导资金流向,从而更好发挥调控作用。

  中共中央政治局会议在强调适度宽松的货币政策的同时,还强调适时降准降息,保持流动性充裕,加力支持实体经济。创设新的结构性货币政策工具,设立新型政策性金融工具,支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。强化政策取向一致性。

  会议指出,要提高中低收入群体收入,大力发展服务消费,增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。尽快清理消费领域限制性措施,设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度,扩围提质实施“两新”政策,加力实施“两重”建设。

  娄飞鹏告诉记者,提振消费是我国扩大内需的重要内容,并且在提振消费的过程中需要做好消费升级和结构优化,如发展绿色消费等。这些不仅需要从需求侧发力,还需要从供给侧发力,提升供给质量以更好满足消费需求。去年以来,我国实施“两重”“两新”政策并取得较好成效,后续需要在前期的基础上进一步做好政策实施,以更好地推动扩大内需,稳定经济回升向好趋势。

  中信证券首席经济学家明明解读,货币政策提出“适时降准降息”,支持消费、科技,结构性工具或有创新增量。本次中共中央政治局会议对宏观政策定调“更加积极有为”,货币政策则是延续了“适度宽松”的基调。具体到工具层面,总量工具要求“适时降准降息,保持流动性充裕,加力支持实体经济”,延续了《政府工作报告》以来的表述,预计后续在兼顾内外政策环境的前提下,降准、降息工具或适时落地。结构性工具层面,会议要求“创设新的结构性货币政策工具,设立新型政策性金融工具”,支持领域主要针对“科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸”等方面。

  此外,明明指出,会议明确提到“设立服务消费与养老再贷款”。2022年4月央行设立了普惠养老再贷款的阶段性政策工具,而消费端结构性支持工具预计将很快落地。这两项再贷款工具,预计将更多关注对消费、养老等领域的精准支持。

  回顾近期货币政策表述,《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,3月21日,中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第一季度例会,指出加大货币政策调控强度,提高货币政策调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性,根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况,择机降准降息。保持流动性充裕,引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度,使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。

  人民银行货币政策委员会第一季度例会同时提出,从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况,关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制,提高资金使用效率,防范资金空转。增强外汇市场韧性,稳定市场预期,加强市场管理,坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏,坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置,坚决防范汇率超调风险,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

  对于实施适度宽松的货币政策,记者注意到,中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上答记者问中指出,人民银行将贯彻落实好中央决策部署,实施好适度宽松的货币政策,平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部均衡、支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系。

  他说,在总量上,货币政策取向是一种对状态的表述。他进一步表示,人民银行连续几年多次降准降息,中国货币政策的状态是支持性的,总量上比较宽松。今年,我们将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况,择机降准降息。

  潘功胜还提到,目前金融机构存款准备金率平均为6.6%,还有下行空间,中央银行向商业银行提供的结构性货币政策工具资金利率也有下行空间。同时,综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现、政策利率等货币政策工具,保持市场流动性的充裕,降低银行负债成本,持续推动社会综合融资成本下降,使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。

 

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