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华尔街大佬,纷纷发出警告!

当地时间周一,高盛CEO大卫·所罗门警告称,在贸易政策不确定性加剧的背景下,美国经济衰退的可能性正在上升。所罗门在电话会议上称:“前进道路的不确定性以及对‘贸易战’可能升级影响的担忧,给美国和全球经济带来了重大风险。”

上周,摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙也对美国经济的前景发出警告称,美国经济正面临“相当大的动荡”。此外,贝莱德CEO拉里·芬克警告称,美国经济可能已经疲软到增长为负的程度。

日前,高盛的分析师预计金价到2025年底将涨至每盎司3700美元,到2026年年中将触及每盎司4000美元,主要是受强于预期的央行需求,以及黄金对冲经济衰退风险的提振。

高盛:经济衰退可能性上升

高盛CEO大卫·所罗门当地时间周一表示,在贸易政策不确定性加剧、许多企业CEO对如何规划未来感到迷茫之际,美国经济衰退的可能性正在上升。

所罗门在高盛一季度财报电话会上指出,未来将面临更多挑战,新一轮关税政策给企业带来的诸多未知因素。“我们进入第二季度时,所面临的经营环境与年初相比已经明显不同。”所罗门称,即便在关税升级前,全球经济增长就已放缓,而关税政策几乎“重置”了全球对未来增长的预期。

所罗门称,“前进道路的不确定性以及对‘贸易战’可能升级影响的担忧,给美国和全球经济带来了重大风险。”所罗门指出,高盛的企业与投资客户普遍担忧短期与长期的不确定性正在限制他们做出关键决策的能力。

这位高盛首席执行官称,“自己对特朗普暂停大多数国家‘对等关税’90天感到鼓舞,这将允许美国与许多国家进行深思熟虑的谈判。但政策将如何演变仍不得而知。”在具体政策落地前,市场波动仍将持续。

与此同时,在避险需求的推动下,黄金则持续受捧。上周,现货黄金价格大涨6.6%,本周一盘中在创出3245美元/盎司的纪录新高后有所回调,周二又恢复上涨。截至记者发稿时,现货黄金上涨0.6%报3229美元/盎司。

当前,高盛的分析师预计金价到今年年底将涨至每盎司3700美元,到2026年年中将触及每盎司4000美元。高盛分析师表示,官方部门今年的购买量可能在平均每月约80吨,高于他们之前估计的70吨。高盛补充说,经济衰退风险上升也可能促使资金流入黄金上市交易基金(ETF)。

“最近的资金流动意外上升,可能反映了投资者对冲衰退风险以及风险资产价格下跌的需求回升。”高盛分析师表示。该行经济学家现在预计美国经济衰退的可能性为45%,“如果这种情况真的发生,ETF资金流入可能会进一步加速,推动金价年底前升至每盎司3880美元。”高盛说道。

华尔街的警告声不断

上周,其他华尔街大行也对未来的经济不确定性发出了多项警告。摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙表示,尽管该行第一季度利润有所增长,但经济仍面临“相当大的动荡”,并且投资银行业务的客户在由地缘政治和贸易紧张局势引发的市场波动加剧的情况下变得更加谨慎。

贝莱德CEO拉里·芬克告诉分析师,“这些全面的关税政策公告的影响程度超出了我在金融行业49年从业生涯中的想象”,并警告称其影响可能会广泛蔓延。拉里·芬克称,“客户们的谈话中充满了对市场和经济未来的不确定性和焦虑情绪。”

拉里·芬克警告称,美国经济可能已经疲软到增长为负的程度。“我认为我们现在非常接近衰退,甚至可能已经陷入衰退。”拉里·芬克在一档节目中表示。

美国前财政部长耶伦周一也表示,特朗普的关税政策加剧了经济衰退的风险。“经济衰退的可能性大幅上升,”耶伦在接受CNBC采访时表示,“我不想贸然预测经济衰退,但如果关税维持现状,对个人消费者而言,损失可能在4000美元左右,这对家庭收入是一个巨大的冲击,会导致消费者在众多商品上的支出减少。”

此外,耶伦还表示,在关税政策不确定的情况下,企业将不愿投资,这有可能引发“严重的经济衰退”。尽管如此,耶伦认为,美联储鉴于关税带来的通胀风险,将“不愿”降低利率。

(转自:券研社)

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