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  百酒研究局

  几十年来,A股还并未实质发生白酒上市公司退市的事,但随着监管趋严、行业产能过剩导致的业绩持续分化以及个别公司自身问题等因素,白酒公司也一定会出现退市公司。那么,第一家退市公司将会是谁?

  根据白酒企业2024年业绩预告,顺鑫农业、皇台酒业于2024年均已扭亏,金种子酒从2021年开始已连亏4年,值得警惕,但公司收入远超3亿元,避开了“3亿元红线”,且背后还有央企华润;显然,目前在退市方面,岩石股份的风险相对较高。

  

证券名称

业绩预告类型

贵州茅台

略增

水井坊

略增

顺鑫农业

扭亏

皇台酒业

扭亏

岩石股份

首亏

金种子酒

续亏

舍得酒业

预减

酒鬼酒

预减

天佑德酒

预减

  (数据来源:同花顺iFinD)

  收入断崖式下滑超过8成

  大约3个月前,根据上海贵酒股份有限公司(证券简称:岩石股份,代码:600696)披露的业绩预告,公司预计2024年度实现营业收入为2.6至2.9亿元、预计扣除与主营业务无关的业务收入和不具备商业实质的收入后的营业收入为2.5至2.8亿元;归母净利润为亏损1.8至2.5亿元(上年同期盈利8707.04万元),扣非净利润亏损1.3亿元至1.8亿元(上年同期盈利6807.44万元)。

  随着4月21日晚间年报披露,这些数字最终落地,公司实现营业收入2.85亿元,较上年下降82.54%,扣除与主营业务无关的业务收入和不具备商业实质的收入后的营业收入为2.68亿元,同比下降83.51%。归母净利润亏损2.17亿元,扣非净利润亏损1.64亿元。此外,公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额也是负的,-7546万元!

  2024年,上海贵酒受多方面因素影响,公司资金承压,市场投放减少。叠加公司实际控制人被公安机关采取强制措施和控股股东及其一致行动人所持公司股票被司法冻结等一系列事件影响,经销商对于补货、备货持更加审慎观望态度,导致公司营业收入与去年同期相比大幅减少,且经营性现金流首次出现负值。

  多事之秋,部分经销商不再与公司继续合作,加上由于2024年公司实施聚焦战略,聚焦重点品牌、产品和重点区域,导致与部分经销商不再合作。因此,公司经销商数量从2023年末的4,429家骤降至772家,即减少了约83%!

  此前,在4月12日,岩石股份发布关于公司股票可能被实施退市风险警示的第三次风险提示。随着财务数据的落地,公司在年报中再次提示了退市风险,还发布了关于实施退市风险警示暨停牌的公告。因公司2024年度经审计的扣除非经常性损益前后的净利润低者为负值,且扣除与主营业务无关的业务收入和不具备商业实质的收入后的营业收入低于3亿元,触及《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》第9.3.2条第一款第(一)项规定,公司股票将被实施退市风险警示,4月22日停牌,4月23日起A股简称为*ST岩石,实施退市风险警示后,公司股票将在风险警示板交易,股票价格的日涨跌幅限制为5%。

  需要说明的是,公司面临退市风险,但还不是终止上市。为此,公司拟采取5条应对措施改善经营状况。一是坚持聚焦战略转型,集中资源于核心产品、市场及渠道,把握市场空间;二是布局基酒销售业务,发挥产区优势,为客户提供高质量基酒供应,改善营收情况;三是聚焦线上、线下、大客户定制和包销等主要业务渠道,积极开拓市场;四是在管理稳定的基础上,精简运营结构,优化资源配置,减少非必要生产性支出,确保实现降本增效;五是积极寻找合适的战略投资者,协调优化上下游资源、销售渠道和融资环境,为公司生产运营带来有力支撑。

  积重难返、危机四伏

  熟悉资本市场的人,对岩石股份应该并不陌生,尽管公司此前多次易名、多次被ST。它的曾用名包括福建豪盛、利嘉股份、多伦股份、匹凸匹……2015年在P2P热火时,多伦股份立志于做中国首家互联网金融上市公司,当时拟更名“匹凸匹”,公告一出,一片哗然。前几年,白酒热尤其是酱酒热,公司于2018年试水白酒销售行业,2019年公司确立了向白酒产业逐步转型的战略规划。

  到2023年,公司实现营业收入16.29亿元,其中酒类销售16.25亿元,也就是公司的收入几乎都来自酒类销售。而在酒类销售中,又主要来自酱香酒,浓香、果酒等也有一点。但转瞬间,16亿元的收入就断崖式下降。

  但公司的问题并不只是收入下降、利润亏损这么简单。

  因涉嫌信息披露违法违规,公司于2023年9月28日收到上海证监局对公司下发的《行政处罚决定书》(沪(2023)32号)及对公司实际控制人韩啸下发的《行政处罚决定书》(沪(2023)34号):对公司责令改正,给予警告并处以两百万元罚款;对韩啸给予警告并处以三百万元罚款,其中,作为直接负责的主管人员处以一百万元罚款,作为实际控制人处以两百万元罚款。 

  在2023年报披露前,公司于2024年2月20日收到上交所对公司下发的《关于岩石股份有关信访投诉事项的监管工作函》,文件表示存在信访投诉称贵酒股份通过未披露的关联方提高销售业绩等相关事项,审计机构基于谨慎性未确认疑似关联方交易金额6,235.09万元,并称“不能排除贵酒股份本期及前期可能存在类似情况”,由此上海贵酒2023年报被出具保留意见的审计报告。

  此后,有媒体报道称,上海贵酒以“招募员工”的方式发展客户、扩大白酒销售规模,引发上交所关注,上海贵酒收问询函。

  因股份回购计划未能实施,公司于2025年2月26日收到上海证券交易所出具的《关于对上海贵酒股份有限公司及有关责任人予以公开谴责的决定》〔2025〕50号(以下简称“《决定书》”),对公司及时任董事长韩啸予以公开谴责。

  而在2024年报一开始的位置,即有重要提示:董事长韩啸因被公安机关采取刑事强制措施,目前处于羁押状态,无法出席本次董事会。审计机构再次出具了保留意见的审计报告(2022年起已连续3年被出具非标意见),而非“标准无保留意见”。

  岩石股份会不会最终被终止上市?

  这要看2025年。若公司2025年度经审计的利润总额、净利润或者扣除非经常性损益后的净利润孰低者为负值且营业收入低于3亿元,或追溯重述后最近一个会计年度利润总额、净利润或者扣除非经常性损益后的净利润孰低者为负值且营业收入低于3亿元,公司股票将被终止上市。

  以目前的情况,岩石股份起死回生的概率还有多少?

 

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  摩根大通发布研报称,上调建设银行(00939)2025至2027年的盈测1.2%、1.4%及1.8%,目标价由7.55港元升至7.9港元,续予“增持”评级,以反映基础稳健及估值吸引。小摩指出,建行的资产负债表稳健,资金来源稳定,而且资产质量稳定,拨备水平亦有所改善。另外,建行的影子银行风险相对较低,因此监管风险亦会较低。

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