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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  转自:北京商报

  在年报季叠加一季报密集披露的节点,4月以来公募密集调研上市公司。东方财富Choice数据显示,截至4月21日,4月以来共有277家上市公司接待公募基金来访调研。其中,来访量排名前四的均为电子行业机构,不过,若从行情表现看,相关个股年内股价则均存在跌幅。有业内人士表示,特朗普提出的“对等关税”对中国出口短期带来一定扰动,尤其是电子行业,短期的回调也是市场正常反应。对于相关上市公司,如何形成应对“对等关税”的经营策略,是各家公募调研关注的方面。展望未来,消费电子行业整体估值修复的可能性较大。

  电子行业个股获组团调研

  4月公募调研路线出炉。东方财富Choice数据显示,截至4月21日,4月以来共有277家上市公司接待公募基金来访调研。具体来看,所属电子行业的立讯精密以近百家基金公司的接待量成为4月以来公募基金调研最多个股,以电话会议形式接待易方达基金、华夏基金、嘉实基金等共计97家公募。

  紧随其后,所属电子行业的沪电股份则接待65家基金公司调研。同样所属电子行业的安克创新被华夏基金、富国基金、南方基金等58家公募调研,两者分别排在4月以来公募基金调研数量的第二位和第三位。

  同期,澜起科技、宁波银行、华东医药、涛涛车业、锐捷网络等多家上市公司获公募基金调研数同样较为居前,4月以来均获超50余家公募来访。

  值得注意的是,公募基金调研来访量排名前四均涉及电子行业,细分领域来看,3家主要聚焦于消费电子,所属概念板块则较多涉及人工智能、国产芯片等。公募基金调研来访量第五至第十名所属行业则包括银行、化学制剂、摩托车、生活用纸、通信网络设备及器件、电网设备等。

  此外,在年报季叠加一季报密集披露的节点,多家被公募调研青睐的上市公司当前所属预盈预增概念,部分公司在2024年全年录得较佳业绩。例如,被57家公募调研的澜起科技在2024年实现归母净利润14.12亿元,同比增长213.1%。不仅如此,澜起科技2025年一季度实现归母净利润也预计将同比增长128.28%—146.19%。

  中国(香港)金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英表示,中国经济高质量发展的背景下,电子行业因其自身技术附加值,往往是上市公司盈利的重要基础,同时也是公募调研较多关注的科技方向。

  短期涨跌回调是正常反应

  虽然多只电子行业个股备受公募调研关注,但相关个股的年内行情表现却较为平淡。东方财富Choice数据显示,截至4月21日收盘,被公募调研数量前三名的立讯精密、沪电股份、安克创新年内涨幅分别为-24.26%、-29.1%、-13.83%。4月以来跌幅也均超过10%。

  事实上,自4月以来美国总统特朗普提出“对等关税”,国内消费电子板块曾经历明显回调。截至4月18日,据中证指数官网,由中芯国际、立讯精密等为权重股的中证消费电子主题指数近一个月跌幅达15.07%。

  伴随“对等关税”提出,新一轮关税加征后对相关上市公司经营业绩、国际业务的影响,应对关税的手段和措施等也成为多家公募在4月调研时的关注点。相关问题包括:“在短期应对关税冲击,公司与客户有哪些应对措施安排”“复杂外部环境下公司整体经营策略”以及“消费电子行业的竞争格局是否会因关税问题发生改变”等。

  王红英表示,特朗普提出的“对等关税”的确对中国出口短期带来一定扰动,尤其是电子行业是我国对欧美出口的主要产品,可能在销售规模、营业收入、利润增长上受到短期影响,因此,短期涨跌回调也是市场正常反应。上述背景下我国可能会通过出口退税等方式,对相关上市公司进行一定的政策性补贴,从而支持上市公司电子产品在全球范围销售。对于上市公司而言,如何进一步优化供应链成本,提升内在质量,形成应对“对等关税”的经营策略是关键,这也是各家公募调研时关注的方面。

  据新华社此前消息,美国海关与边境保护局4月11日宣布,联邦政府已同意对智能手机、电脑、芯片等电子产品免除所谓“对等关税”。展望后市,中信证券研究近日发文称,中国具备成熟完整的消费电子供应链,美国此前通过关税加征的方式倒逼电子零部件、模组、组装等供应链回流的可行性较弱。此外,产业链公司过去几年已在全球进行了产能多元化布局,也可一定程度对冲潜在关税加征带来的冲击。短期看好关税担忧缓解下的相关标的的超跌反弹;中长期则持续看好具备平台性属性+产能多元化布局的龙头公司的经营韧性。

  信达证券相关研究团队也看好消费电子估值修复机会,其在4月18日发布名为《关税政策冲击倾向短期,关注消费电子修复时机》的研报中指出,尽管关税政策短期内可能对消费电子企业造成一定冲击,但是这种影响难以在中长期维持。自关税政策颁布以来,国内消费电子优质个股大幅回调,目前估值已显露较大空间。此外,关税政策持续恶化的可能性也在不断缩小,但目前仍需观察越南、印度、新加坡、墨西哥等地的关税政策变化。总体来看,如果后续关税没有非理性发展,则行业整体估值修复的可能性较大,建议持续关注。

  北京商报记者郝彦

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