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化学实验室学霸做哭学渣BY - 错过这次你将后悔终生!

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  来源:证券之星

  2024年,国内疫苗行业业绩承压明显,头部二类疫苗上市公司康泰生物(300601.SZ)的业绩也坐上了“过山车”:第一、第二季度营收和净利均呈现同比双降,第三季度虽实现营收同比双位数增长,但第四季度业绩再度急转直下。全年实现营收和归母净利润为26.52亿元和2.02亿元,分别同比下滑23.75%和76.59%。

  而在今年一季度,虽然公司止住了营收下滑的颓势,然而归母净利润仍同比腰斩58.51%至2243.41万元。

  作为反映疫苗企业市场竞争力的关键指标,批签发量常被视作产品销量的先行信号。然而,证券之星关注到,康泰生物2024年的批签发量与营收增长呈现背离:尽管其多款核心疫苗产品的批签发量均实现不同程度的增长,但公司整体营收不增反降,这一数据表明,其批签发量未能有效转化为实际销量的增长。

  此外,公司在财务端的隐忧凸显,截至今年一季度末,康泰生物应收账款高达28.54亿元,同比增长5.1%,应收账款周转率和存货周转率均仅为0.23,反映出公司收款风险增加的同时,资金运营效率低下。2024年至今,公司股价跌幅超48%。

  01. 自费疫苗收入大幅下滑

  国内市场中,康泰生物产品主要涵盖免疫规划疫苗和非免疫规划疫苗(由居民自愿接种的其他疫苗)。证券之星了解到,康泰生物的免疫规划疫苗包括重组乙型肝炎疫苗(酿酒酵母)、麻疹风疹联合减毒活疫苗,以及吸附无细胞百白破联合疫苗。从批签发量看,2024年公司的免疫规划疫苗产品呈现出两极分化态势,其中乙肝疫苗产品扭转了连续两年下滑颓势,全年批签发量达到1018.80万剂,同比上涨38.60%。与之形成鲜明对比的是,百白破疫苗产品的批签发量遭遇了断崖式下跌,2024年的批签发量仅为62.31万剂,跌幅达到72.28%。

  或受益于乙肝疫苗批签发量增长的带动,2024年康泰生物来自免疫规划疫苗贡献的收入为6108.36万元,同比大幅增长144.07%。然而,尽管免疫规划疫苗收入呈现爆发式增长,但其在公司全年总营收中占比仅2.3%,该板块对公司整体业绩的拉动相对有限。

  证券之星了解到,免疫规划疫苗通常由政府统一采购,价格相对较低,利润空间有限。与此同时,伴随出生人口数量的减少,国家免疫规划疫苗招标采购经费需求也在减少。从毛利率对比可以直观地看出,2024年康泰生物免疫规划疫苗为25.24%,反观非免疫规划疫苗则高达84.30%。

  作为康泰生物的核心收入来源,其非免疫规划疫苗包括13价肺炎球菌多糖结合疫苗、冻干人用狂犬病疫苗(人二倍体细胞)、23价肺炎球菌多糖疫苗、新型冠状病毒灭活疫苗(Vero细胞)、重组新型冠状病毒疫苗(Y25腺病毒载体)、无细胞百白破b型流感嗜血杆菌联合疫苗(四联苗)、b型流感嗜血杆菌结合疫苗,以及水痘减毒活疫苗。

  2024年,康泰生物多款非免疫规划疫苗的批签发量较上年呈现大幅增长,其中13价肺炎疫苗、人二倍体狂犬疫苗以及Hib疫苗的增幅分别达到49.87%、3262.51%和171.20%。然而,作为销量的前瞻指标,公司增势可观的批签发量却未能完全转化为销量的增长,2024年,公司自主产品的销售量同比下滑7.78%至1868.27万剂。反映在收入层面,来自非免疫规划疫苗的收入为25.46亿元,同比大幅下滑26.02%。

  康泰生物近日召开的业绩说明会上表示,2024年度受市场竞争、降库存等因素影响,导致2024年营收下降,此外,叠加固定资产折旧费用增加、资产减值增加、2023年股权激励计划终止实施加速行权等因素影响,致使净利润大幅下滑。

  02. 四联疫苗批签发量“腰斩”

  证券之星了解到,康泰生物的四联疫苗作为其重要产品,曾在2020年创造高达13.62亿元的营收,在公司总营收中占比超六成,当年批签发量达556.33万剂。但至2024年,该疫苗批签发量已大幅回落至282.06万剂。

  不仅如此,2024年12月,多部委下发的《关于国家免疫规划百白破疫苗和白破疫苗免疫程序调整相关工作的通知》,让四联疫苗的未来销售面临更多不确定性。通知显示,自2025年1月1日起,全国范围内百白破疫苗免疫程序从原本3月龄、4月龄、5月龄、18月龄各接种1剂次,6周岁接种1剂次吸附白喉-破伤风联合疫苗,调整为2月龄、4月龄、6月龄、18月龄、6周岁各接种1剂次百白破疫苗。康泰生物也明确表示,此次免疫程序调整,存在对公司2024年及未来经营业绩产生不利影响的风险。

  在其他主要疫苗产品方面,13价肺炎疫苗和人二倍体狂犬疫苗的市场竞争形势严峻。证券之星了解到,目前,13价肺炎疫苗市场初步形成辉瑞、沃森生物和康泰生物三足鼎立的局面。其中,沃森生物的13价肺炎疫苗早在2019年便获批上市,积累了较好的口碑,而康泰生物的13价肺炎疫苗2021年9月才获批,入局时间晚,后续还有艾美疫苗、康希诺等企业发力追赶,未来行业竞争愈发激烈。

  在狂犬疫苗市场,康华生物(维权)凭借先发优势,在人二倍体狂犬疫苗领域占据领先地位。与此同时,艾美疫苗、辽宁成大、智飞生物等企业也纷纷涉足该领域。康泰生物作为后来者,能否持续扩大市场份额还要等待时间的检验。

  除已上市疫苗产品外,公司年报显示,其还拥有近30项在研品。尽管在研管线储备充足,产品布局广泛,却并不必然能直接转化为亮眼的业绩增长。

  例如在2020年,彼时正值全球疫情暴发,康泰生物一口气“押注”了三个技术路线的新冠疫苗,包括自研灭活疫苗、与阿斯利康合作,引进其腺病毒载体疫苗以及布局重组VSV病毒载体疫苗。然而公司自研的灭活疫苗直至2021年5月才在国内获批紧急使用,彼时国内新冠疫苗市场竞争已趋于白热化,多款同类灭活疫苗早已抢先布局并大规模接种,市场份额被迅速瓜分。

  此后伴随着新冠疫苗需求量的快速下滑,康泰生物新冠疫苗销量也迅速走低。2022年,因对新冠疫苗相关资产计提资产减值,导致公司自创业板上市后首次出现业绩亏损。今年1月23日,公司发布公告称,因市场环境变化等因素,继续研发该疫苗的经济效益和社会效益已降低,决定终止新型冠状病毒灭活疫苗研发。

  值得注意,今年一季度,康泰生物业绩颓势仍未得到扭转,呈现出“增收不增利,”与此同时,公司财务数据也亮起红灯。截至今年一季度末,公司应收账款为:28.54亿元,同比增长5.1%;存货周转天数高达396.48天。康泰生物解释称,其主要客户是疾病预防控制中心,具有良好的信誉及履约能力,应收账款回收的风险较小。

  不过证券之星注意到,2024年公司计提的信用减值准备、资产减值准备合计2.6亿元,包括应收账款坏账准备2973.95万元、存货跌价准备2.17亿元;2025年一季度,计提信用减值准备、资产减值准备合计3028.75万元,包括771.69万元的应收账款坏账准备和2230.82万元的存货跌价准备。

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