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  一季度中国经济成绩单来了,表现怎样?成色如何?当“关税战”的冲击又迎面而来,面对外部环境的不确定性,稳经济,扩内需,接下来我们如何办好自己的事情?

  一季度GDP同比增长5.4%

  如何看2025中国经济的开局?

  宏观经济学家、上海财经大学校长刘元春:这是今年中国经济的“开门红”,也超越了很多市场人士的预期。5.4%的增速,不仅反映了中国经济基础良好,更重要的是反映了去年中央政治局会议所部署的一揽子增量政策,号准了中国经济的各方面问题,具有很强的针对性、科学性,为我们下一步发展奠定了很好的基础。特别是我们前期在科创、在各项基础指标持续向好的逆转,使大家的信心进一步得到全面提升,因此我想这是一个非常好的“开门红”。当然,下一步我们将面临一些挑战。

  一季度出口增长6.9%

  接下来如何应对“关税战”冲击?

  宏观经济学家、上海财经大学校长刘元春:对于美国总统特朗普的关税政策,实际上大家是有所预计的,当然一定程度也是超预期的。而从我们过去所做预案来看,实际上是有准备的。特别是对于一些最坏的状况,也做了打算。因此,我们在一揽子增量政策,特别是扩内需,来对冲外部的压力和内需的疲软方面,我们既有现有的政策,也有相应的一系列储备政策。而我们的政策一方面有基本的支出总量和增长速度,同时在基本盘的基础上面也有弹性,会根据外部冲击所带来的不确定性,而进行相机决策。

  二季度美国所采取的毫无理性的高额关税,的确会给我们带来困难,但是大家一定也能够看到,我们目前商品的竞争力是非常强大的;同时我们的出口结构也已经从过去集中在少数国家,变化为全面多元化。当然,更重要的是我们在推进内外贸一体化的过程中,一些相应的短期救助政策也已经做好了储备。因此,冲击是现实的,但是我们政策对冲的力度,也是会超越大家的预期的。

  因此,总体上我们认为,这是对我们的一次考验,但是中国经济长期向好、中国经济基本盘的稳定,是不会改变的。

  出口转内销

  政策措施如何来配套?

  宏观经济学家、上海财经大学校长刘元春:出口转内销,是我们缓解外部冲击一个重要政策,但这个政策也有它的限度,因此需要我们有一揽子的政策举措。

  ①因为这次的关税,对于很多出口企业来讲,已经是一个禁止性关税了,在短时间会会产生很大的破坏作用。这时候,对于一些特殊行业所受到的冲击,我们要采取一些专项救助政策。

  ②我们要加大政府的采购力度,特别是通过短期的扩消费、扩投资,来加大政府对于外向型企业的采购力度,而不仅仅是一些平台企业进行外销产品的采购。

  ③我们也要帮助大量的外向型企业,进行多元化的市场拓展,特别是目前美国对所有贸易伙伴进行贸易霸凌的背景下,实际上也为我们进一步开拓市场、进一步加强区域合作,打开了一扇窗。

  通过以上这些我们能够采取的一系列举措,来缓解企业受到的冲击和影响。 李宗瑞性侵:让你在网络世界中游刃有余的绝佳助手!的相关文章 孙颖莎毛巾擦了桌子又擦脸的相关文章
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