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  本周,关税协议谈判将主导国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议

  本周,数百名全球金融领域的领导人将齐聚华盛顿,每个人都带着一个独特的使命:我能和谁谈谈以达成一项贸易协议呢?

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行集团的半年度会议是热闹的活动,既有高层多边政策会谈,也有各国财政部长之间的一对一会议,他们渴望就项目融资、本国的外国投资等事宜达成协议,而对于较贫穷的经济体来说,则是有关债务减免的事宜。

  今年,占据主导地位的议题将不是关于气候变化的政策协调、通货膨胀问题,也不是对乌克兰抗击俄罗斯入侵的金融支持,而是一个问题:关税。

  更具体地说,如何摆脱——或者至少将——美国总统唐纳德・特朗普自今年1月重返白宫以来前所未有的一系列高额进口关税所带来的痛苦降至最低。

  人们的关注焦点可能在一个人身上,即美国新任财政部长斯科特・贝森特,他是特朗普在关税协议方面的首席谈判代表,而他对国际货币基金组织和世界银行的支持态度仍是个未知数。

  大西洋理事会地缘经济中心高级主任乔希・利普斯基表示:“贸易战将主导本周的会议,几乎每个国家都在以某种方式努力推进的双边谈判也会如此。所以这次春季会议将与以往任何一次都不同,被单一议题所主导。”

  “显著下调”

  特朗普的关税政策已经使国际货币基金组织即将于周二发布的经济预测蒙上阴影,这将给发展中国家的债务负担带来更大压力。

  国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜・格奥尔基耶娃上周表示,《世界经济展望》的增长预测将包括“显著下调,但并非衰退”,这在很大程度上是由于关税动荡引发的“超乎寻常”的不确定性和市场波动。

  尽管格奥尔基耶娃称全球实体经济仍在良好运转,但她警告称,对贸易动荡日益负面的看法以及对经济衰退的担忧可能会减缓经济活动。

  利普斯基表示,对于政策制定者来说,一个潜在的新挑战是,在特朗普的关税政策引发美国国债抛售之后,美元是否仍将是一种避险资产。

  事实证明,国际货币基金组织和世界银行的会议,以及二十国集团(G20)金融领导人的会外活动,在危机时期(如新冠疫情大流行和2008-2009年全球金融危机期间)是协调有力政策行动的关键平台。

  政策专家表示,这次,各国代表团将在贸易部长的陪同下,首先致力于支撑本国经济。

  前美国财政部官员、华盛顿全球发展中心高级政策研究员南希・李表示:“过去几年,这些会议的重点一直大量放在多边开发银行改革上,在一定程度上也放在加强主权债务架构上,而这些重点这次都将被搁置一旁。”

  贝森特的关税谈判

  日本受到特朗普对汽车和钢铁征收25%关税的压力,以及对其他所有商品可能高达24%的报复性关税的影响,特别渴望迅速敲定一项与美国的关税协议。

  由于与美国的谈判比其他国家更为深入,而且特朗普也参与其中,预计日本财务大臣加藤胜信将在国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议的间隙与贝森特会面,重启谈判。

  首尔财政部表示,韩国财政部长崔相穆也接受了贝森特本周会面的邀请,以讨论贸易问题。作为依赖出口的美国盟友,韩国正寻求推迟25%关税的实施,并在能源和造船等双方共同感兴趣的领域与美国开展合作。

  但许多与会者对特朗普政府对国际货币基金组织和世界银行的支持态度存在疑问。《2025项目》是极右翼共和党政策宣言,影响了特朗普重塑政府的许多决策,该宣言呼吁美国退出这些机构。

  李说:“我认为贝森特部长在这些会议中扮演着关键角色,要回答一些非常基本的问题。首先也是最重要的是,美国是否认为支持多边开发银行符合其自身利益?”

  美国的财政支持

  世界银行行长阿贾伊・班加上周表示,他已与特朗普政府进行了建设性的讨论,但他不知道特朗普政府是否会为美国去年由前总统乔・拜登政府承诺向世界银行用于援助世界最贫穷国家的基金提供40亿美元的资金。

  预计班加本周还将进一步阐述世界银行能源融资重点的转变,从主要为可再生能源项目提供资金,转变为包括核能和更多天然气项目,同时转向更多适应气候变化的项目——这种调整更符合特朗普的优先事项。

  贝森特确实支持国际货币基金组织为阿根廷提供的200亿美元新贷款项目,他上周前往布宜诺斯艾利斯,以示对阿根廷经济改革的支持,并表示美国希望有更多这样的选择,以替代与中国 的双边贷款协议。

  三位曾在财政部任职、后来代表美国在国际货币基金组织执行董事会任职的前官员称该组织“对美国来说是一笔非常划算的金融交易”。

  梅格・伦德萨格、伊丽莎白・肖蒂诺和马克・索贝尔在《国会山报》上发表的一篇评论文章中表示,国际货币基金组织让占主导地位的股东美国几乎不费成本就拥有了巨大的经济影响力。

  他们写道:“如果美国退出国际货币基金组织,中国就会受益。我们的影响力使我们能够塑造国际货币基金组织,以实现美国的优先目标。”

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