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4月17日,OEXN表示,OPEC+成员国已提交计划,以补偿总计457万桶/日的超产。这些补偿计划详细列出了每月的抵消量,主要集中在2025年5月至10月之间。OPEC+自2016年首次达成协议以来,一直面临成员国超产的问题,这削弱了减产措施的效率,并使市场对OPEC+实际供应量的数字变得模糊。

  OEXN进一步认为,最新的补偿计划预计在2025年5月至10月期间进行最大幅度的月度补偿,而2026年的总月度补偿量则相对较少。理论上,这意味着OPEC+生产商将在今年生产低于计划的产量,并抵消从2025年5月开始的41.1万桶/日的产量增长。然而,在实践中,OPEC+并未实现完全符合减产协议,因为伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯等国持续未能遵守其配额。

  OEXN还提到,就在4月开始增产之前,OPEC+集团在3月将石油产量提高到了八个月来的最高水平。根据S&PGlobalCommodityInsights的PlattsOPEC+调查,拥有配额的OPEC+生产商的总产量超出了整体上限31.9万桶/日。随着集团从4月开始逐步放松减产措施,并计划在5月将产量提高三倍于预期的水平,合规问题和更高的OPEC+产量问题愈发突出。

  OEXN总结认为,尽管OPEC+计划通过补偿措施来抵消超产,但实际执行情况仍存在不确定性,特别是考虑到一些成员国持续的合规问题。投资者和市场参与者应密切关注OPEC+的产量调整和补偿计划的实施情况,以评估其对全球石油市场的影响。

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