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4月17日上午,建设银行涨0.11%,报9.08元/股,股价再创新高,总市值突破2.27万亿元,成交额达1755.69万元。

4月16日,在大盘震荡走弱的情况下,农业银行、建设银行、上海银行等多只银行股在盘中创下历史新高。

最近一段时间以来,资金热捧银行股。从最新披露的基金一季报来看,多只基金产品加大了对银行股的配置力度。

比如,金信智能中国2025灵活配置混合的一季报显示,该基金前十大重仓股全部为银行股,且在一季度大幅加仓了交通银行、中国银行、建设银行、光大银行,其中交通银行为第一大重仓股。

安信聚利增强在一季度加仓了工商银行,安信量化精选沪深300指数增强在一季度加仓了招商银行、交通银行、农业银行。

实际上,早在去年四季度,基金便已经增持银行股。

银河证券的研报显示,2024年四季度,主动型基金对银行持仓总市值为555.84亿元,环比增加22.87%;持仓占比为3.95%,环比上升1.16个百分点。截至2024年末,主动型基金重仓持股总市值排名前五的银行分别为招商银行、江苏银行、成都银行、工商银行、宁波银行,重仓基金持仓占比分别为0.84%、0.43%、0.38%、0.38%、0.38%,均较三季度上升。

除了基金外,保险机构也在近期频频举牌上市银行。今年以来,招商银行H股、农业银行H股、邮储银行H股、中信银行H股以及杭州银行被险企举牌。

据港交所披露,平安人寿3月13日增持600余万股招商银行H股股票,于当日达到该行H股股本的10%,根据香港市场规则,触发公司举牌,而此次为平安人寿年内第二次举牌招商银行H股。3月26日,平安人寿再次增持招行H股,增持后持有比例突破11%。

2月17日,平安人寿所持农行H股数量突破该行H股股本的5%,触发举牌;1月8日,平安人寿所持邮储银行H股数量突破该行H股股本的5%,触发举牌。

新华保险则在1月24日通过协议转让方式收购澳洲联邦银行持有的杭州银行3.3亿股股份,股份转让价款为43.17亿元。收购完成后,新华保险将持有该行5.87%股权。

光大证券分析师王一峰认为2025年依然可能呈现“高股息”主导的投资特征,这使得银行股投资的确定性高于其他行业,或呈现出更强稳健性。他建议沿着稳健大行的韧性和优质小行的弹性两条路径布局银行股投资,前者建议关注H股大型银行,如工行、建行;后者建议重点关注盈利增长确定性更强的优质中小银行,如江苏银行、杭州银行、苏州银行、常熟银行等。

韩国中央银行在国内消费者通胀意外上升且韩元一度贬至16年来低点之际维持基准利率不变,以促进韩国金融体系稳定。此外,韩国央行表示,特朗普面向全球的激进关税政策搅乱市场并令韩国经济增长前景蒙阴,因此倾向在未来进一步降息的政策方向。

韩国央行周四将七天回购利率维持在2.75%。在彭博此前对于24位经济学家的咨询调查中,15人预测按兵不动,其余9人预测降息25个基点。决议公布后,韩元汇率呈现出反复波动,而韩股涨幅扩大。

此番维稳政策之前,韩元上周一度跌至接近1,490韩元兑1美元,创下2009年3月以来最弱水平,加剧了因进口成本高企而再度产生通胀压力的风险。3月韩国消费者价格同比上涨2.1%,逆转了市场对韩国通胀将继续放缓的预期。

在声明中,韩国央行表示,受美国政府贸易政策和韩国国内政治不确定性影响,韩国经济增长放缓幅度超出预期。基于此,该央行将继续保持倾向在未来进一步降息的货币政策动态。

韩国央行未来数月再度下调基准利率的可能性,或将因6月决定下一任韩国总统的全国大选临近而变得复杂。

“5月宣布再次降息的可能性有所扩大,但总统大选或将影响韩国央行决定。”来自SK证券的经济学家安永鎭表示,“鉴于政权更迭的可能性较大,韩国央行在新政府上台后再降息,将比提前几天降息在政治层面上更易被接受。”

“进一步放松的理由充分。外部需求承压,美国整体10%关税仍在实施。国内信心疲弱持续拖累消费与投资。我们预计韩国央行将于5月恢复宽松周期,下调利率25个基点以支持经济。”BloombergEconomics经济学家权孝曾表示。

对于韩国央行来说,韩元汇率仍是关键因素。本周早些时候,在特朗普暗示可能暂停汽车关税后,该国货币一度升至去年11月以来最强水平。汽车及零部件是韩国对美出口的核心商品,占去年一整年708亿美元车辆出口额的接近一半。

预测降息的韩国经济学家指出,需确保在韩国与全球贸易形势可能冲击出口的情况下保持经济增长动能。此前,韩国前总统尹锡悦去年12月颁布的戒严令引发金融市场剧烈动荡以及随后数月的政治僵局打击了消费者信心,央行已下调经济预测。

彭博4月调查覆盖的经济学家们将韩国2025年经济增长预测从1.6%下调至1.4%,将2026年经济增长预测从2%下调至1.9%。

不过,可能令韩国央行的政策制定者们暂缓进一步降息的风险包括韩国公寓价格攀升以及家庭债务水平大幅上升的潜在可能。韩国政府此前表示将对首尔地区的房市交易实施新的限制措施以降温市场。

为缓解消费者借贷成本并支撑经济抵御特朗普政府主导的关税冲击,韩国央行自2024年10月起已连续三次降息。韩国对外出口的依赖度高,尤其是对美国出口乃韩国经济的核心支柱,因此韩国是最易受保护主义政策冲击的经济体之一。

特朗普政府最初在“对等关税”体系中对韩国征收高达25%关税,为对美国安全盟友征收的最高税率之一,随后暂时下调至10%,期限90天。韩国正准备派谈判代表赴美争取更低税率。

特朗普在上周三表示,已授权对全球大部分国家实施90天的“对等关税暂缓”措施,在此期间大幅降低这些的国家关税至10%。

在韩国央行的偏谨慎货币政策行动呈现之际,韩国政府正通过提前执行财政支出提振长期疲软的韩国经济,尤其是长期萎靡的消费支出,宣布规模12万亿韩元(84亿美元)的补充预算,高于原计划的10万亿韩元。

然而,在筹备6月3日新一轮韩国总统大选之际,韩国的朝野两党能否在国会就刺激方案达成一致仍不明朗。

李昌镛行长将于周四稍晚举行韩国央行新闻发布会,回答有关利率政策未来走向的问题。除披露此次决议中有多少货币政策委员会成员持异议外,他还可能阐述委员会对未来三个月利率的预期。在2月的降息决策之后,李昌镛表示,6名货币政策委员会成员中有2人支持在未来三个月再次降息,4人倾向维持利率不变。

  据报道,马斯克领导的政府效率部(DOGE)团队的成员现在有了一项新的任务,正在为美国建立一个出售特殊移民签证的系统,特朗普将这种签证称为“金卡”,每张签证的价格为500万美元。

  据三名知情人士透露,与马斯克团队有关的工程师一直在与美国国务院、国土安全部和美国公民及移民服务局的员工合作,为这些签证创建一个网站和申请流程。

  这个项目代表着马斯克的DOGE团队的使命从最初的削减政府成本转向了创造收入的新目标。

  据悉,特朗普的移民金卡项目目前由DOGE方面的MarkoElez和EdwardCoristine领导,他们至少从上个月开始就一直在研究这个项目。两人已经会见了负责签证和移民审查流程的各个机构的官员,以了解哪些现有流程可以纳入他们的新系统。

  据知情人士透露,Airbnb联合创始人、亿万富翁乔·杰比亚(JoeGebbia)也参与了这个项目。他于今年2月加入马斯克的团队,最初是为了帮助联邦雇员退休流程的数字化。

  据悉,DOGE的工程师们仍在评估如何创建一个金卡系统,以绕过正常的签证申请程序。他们的重点是如何加快典型的移民审查程序,包括面试和背景调查,并在申请后两周内获得高净值申请人的居留许可。

  今年2月底,特朗普宣布了移民金卡的想法,声称要为“非常高层的人”提供“获得公民身份的途径”。

  特朗普和他的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克当时没有提供有关谁有资格参加该计划的细节,但他们指出,该计划将取代EB-5签证,后者为愿意投资美国企业的外国人提供永久居留权。EB-5签证项目向投资80万美元或105万美元,为美国工人创造至少10个就业机会的个人提供绿卡,它去年为美国政府筹集了大约40亿美元。

  卢特尼克上个月在播客上说,他一天就卖出了1000张这种签证。但一位接近该项目的人士表示,尚未进行任何交易。

  “所以,如果你有一张金卡——以前是绿卡——你就是美国的永久居民,”卢特尼克说,暗示大多数持卡人不会继续成为美国公民。他还说,“他们付了500万美元,就有权成为美国人,有权待在美国,只要他们是好人,经过审查,不能违法。”

  卢特尼克还说,马斯克“现在”正在开发软件,该项目将在两周内公布。

  本月早些时候,特朗普在空军一号上向记者展示了一张印有他的脸、自由女神像和一只秃鹰的层压卡片,并表示将在“不到两周的时间内”发行。

  周四,卢特尼克更新了时间表,称移民金卡将在“一周半内”准备好。

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