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  来源:华尔街见闻

  通过关税壁垒让制造业工作重返美国的“梦想”很美,但注定无法实现。

  Citadel创始人、亿万富翁肯·格里芬(KenGriffin)近日尖锐批评特朗普政府的关税政策,断言其无法实现美国制造业就业回流的目标。

  他认为,美国应聚焦于知识产权和内容创造等高价值优势领域,而非执着于无法挽回的工厂岗位。

  这位共和党的巨额捐款人明确指出,通过关税壁垒让制造业工作重返美国的“梦想”虽值得肯定,但注定无法实现。

  关税难阻趋势:制造业岗位难回流

  “这些工作不会回到美国了,”格里芬直言不讳。

  他给出了两大理由:首先,美国当前的失业率已低至4%,“经济已经向前看了”,劳动力市场结构已发生根本性变化;其次,工厂自动化是不可逆转的趋势,无论有无关税,许多传统制造业岗位都在被机器取代。

  格里芬认为,特朗普总统希望借此“重拾工人尊严”的初衷值得赞赏,但关税并非正确的途径。

  比较优势:美国应聚焦高价值领域

  格里芬主张,美国真正的竞争力在于创新和创造。“我们应该专注于创造知识产权和内容,”他强调,“这些工作的薪酬水平,远非生产拉链、家电或平板电视的工厂岗位可比。”

  他提及近期在北京与一位中国高官的对话,对方也对此表示不解,质疑美国为何要推行旨在增加低薪工厂岗位的政策,使自己更像过去的中国,而不是巩固其作为世界创新领导者的地位——这恰恰是中国正在努力追赶和学习的方向。

  贸易战代价:损害美国利益与全球关系

  格里芬此前已将持续升级的贸易战形容为“荒谬”。

  他警告,这种做法不仅损害了美国的全球品牌形象,也破坏了美国与世界其他国家的关系。他批评特朗普政府采取了一种短视的“交易导向思维”,这与美国的国家长远利益背道而驰。

  同时,格里芬也反思了全球化带来的深层问题。

  他坦承,美国在帮助那些在全球化浪潮中失业的群体方面做得并不到位,而正是这些感觉被经济抛弃的人群,构成了特朗普的重要支持基础。

  他还警示,人工智能(AI)的兴起可能对白领工作岗位构成新的冲击,未来如何帮助这部分人群适应转型至关重要。

  尽管存在这些挑战,格里芬依然认为,整体而言,美国从全球化中获益多于中国。然而,当前的贸易战正“割裂美国与世界的联系”。

  他最后指出,特朗普政府近期暂停扩大关税范围的决定,提供了一个宝贵的“反思空间”。这让美政府有机会重新审视,如何在“为受全球化冲击者创造就业、维护尊严”与“巩固并重申美国在全球的关键角色”这两个目标之间,找到一条更明智、更可持续的路径。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  富凯财经作者|辛思路

  4月24日晚间,天孚通信发布公告称,CPO相关新产品进展顺利。对此,有投资者表示,CPO技术将光模块和芯片封装一起,数据传输更快更高效,但封装工艺复杂,良率问题不好解决,这可是个考验天孚通信的技术难题。

  不过,另一只CPO概念股仕佳光子却在上周受到了市场的追捧,以66.54%的周涨幅登顶本周A股榜首。

  CPO即芯片封装优化,是一种新型封装技术,能够将多个光学元件(如激光器、调制器、分束器等)集成在同一个封装中。CPO技术被认为是实现高集成度、低功耗、低成本、小体积的最优封装方案之一,是业界公认的未来更高速率光通信的主流产品形态。

  富凯财经注意到,天孚通信自去年11月8日股价创出历史高点以来,截至4月25日已经回调幅度已经超过了50%,但市值仍有389亿元,反观仕佳光子,虽然经历了本周的大涨,市值仅有119亿元。

  业界纷纷抢滩

  CPO市场前景潜力巨大,据行业数据显示,未来预计CPO的发货量将从2023年的5万件增加到2027年的450万件。

  CPO在光通信、传感器、光电显示等领域具有广泛的应用前景。在光通信中,它可以用于高速数据传输和光纤网络设备;在传感器领域,它可以用于实现高灵敏度和快速响应的光学传感器;在光电显示领域,它可以用于提供更亮、更清晰的显示效果。 

  为抓紧光电子产业领域快速发展机遇,仕佳光子参与投资设立了河南泓淇光电子产业基金合伙企业(有限合伙),出资比例为39.80%。今年1月,泓淇光电就收购福可喜玛股权有关事项向仕佳光子发出通知,泓淇光电以现金方式向致尚科技(301486.SZ)购买其子公司福可喜玛53%的股权。

  仕佳光子在公告中称,随着AI数据中心带宽密度快速提升,光纤链接需求旺盛,带动公司MPO高密度光纤连接器快速增长。MT插芯作为MPO高密度光纤连接器的核心构造元素,实现了光纤跳线的高密度、高速度传输,为数据中心网络架构中的高速数据传输提供了有力支持,其需求呈现快速增长,通过泓淇光电间接投资福可喜玛,有利于保持MT插芯持续供货的稳定性。

  天风证券表示,AI模型迭代和应用将拉动CPO市场快速增长。国际机构Yole预计,到2033年,CPO市场规模将达到26亿美元。

  目前,CPO的需求主要集中在海外,博通已向客户交付了业界首款51.2TCPO以太网交换机Bailly;台积电推出的COUPE平台已实现CPO与先进半导体封装技术的集成;英伟达则在GTC大会上发布了3款CPO交换机。除天孚通信外,国内厂商如中际旭创、新易盛等也已在CPO技术领域有所布局。

  业绩频传捷报

  仕佳光子近日发布的2024年年报显示,实现营业收入10.75亿元,同比增长42.40%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为6493.33万元,同比增长236.57%。

  今年一季度,该公司实现营业收入4.36亿元,同比增长121%;实现归母净利润9319万元,同比增长1004%。产品毛利率达39.1%,同比提升15百分点。

  仕佳光子表示,营收和净利润的大幅增长,主要得益于AI算力需求驱动下数通市场的快速发展。公司积极适应市场需求,持续投入研发与技术创新,使得光芯片及器件、室内光缆以及线缆高分子材料等业务订单量均较上年同期实现增长。从业务板块来看,光芯片及器件产品收入增长68.14%,室内光缆产品收入增长14.12%,线缆高分子材料产品收入增长25.14%。

  年报信息显示,仕佳光子2024年研发投入超过亿元,在无源产品方面,应用于400G和800G光模块的CWDM/LANWDMAWG组件实现大批量出货,并开发出适用于1.6T光模块用的AWG芯片及组件等;在有源产品方面,开发出数据中心用1310nm100GEML激光器等。

  天风证券指出,仕佳光子的400G和800G光模块AWG组件已广泛应用于全球主流光模块企业,800G/1.6T光模块的MT-FA产品部分处于客户验证和推广阶段,高密度光纤连接器跳线已通过全球主要布线厂商认证,成为其合格供应商并已实现批量出货,预计未来需求前景广阔。

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