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  北京时间4月25日凌晨,美股周四午盘维持涨势,纳指上涨超过300点。市场继续关注特朗普关税战的最新进展。克利夫兰联储行长称6月份可能降息。

  道指涨264.72点,涨幅为0.67%,报39871.29点;纳指涨302.56点,涨幅为1.81%,报17010.61点;标普500指数涨71.70点,涨幅为1.33%,报5447.56点。

  受到美联储官员关于6月份可能降息言论推动,科技股普涨。特斯拉上涨2.4%,奈飞上涨2.2%,英伟达上涨2.2%,谷歌A类股上涨1.4%。

  周三美股收高,关于贸易紧张局势能够缓解的希望令美股受到提振。

  市场密切关注特朗普关税不确定性

  本周早些时候,美国总统特朗普表示,他愿意在对外贸易谈判中采取不那么对抗的方式。此外,美国财政部长斯科特-贝森特周三表示,正在进行贸易谈判,美国在贸易方面有达成“重大交易的机会”。

  但据新华社报道,商务部发言人何亚东否认存在任何贸易谈判,并要求取消“单边”关税。

  总部位于马萨诸塞州的Pallas资本顾问公司首席投资官GauravMallik表示:“虽然听到美国政府在关税问题上采取更鸽派的语气令人鼓舞,但美股目前仍处于区间震荡。市场真正需要的是关税撤销或实质性贸易协议,这种调整可能持续数月。”

  据央视报道,美东时间周四早间,美方高级官员透露,特朗普政府正考虑多种关税方案。第一种方案,对中国商品征收的关税税率可能降至大约50%-65%。第二种方案则被称为“分级方案”,美方将把进口自中国的商品分为所谓“对美国国家安全不构成威胁”和所谓“对美国国家利益具有战略意义”的商品。

  央视报道指出,在“分级方案”里,美方将对前一类商品征收35%的关税,对第二类商品的关税税率至少为100%。白宫新闻秘书莱维特称,特朗普在对华关税问题上的立场“没有软化”。

  瑞联银行外汇策略主管PeterKinsella表示,“你会看到来自美国的各种相互矛盾的声明和噪音,整个叙事根本就没头绪。这根本没法交易。”

  Kinsella表示,“因此尽管我们听到一些安抚性言论,但在不清楚美国关税战实际目标的前提下,很难看到事态会朝积极方向发展。”

  荷兰合作银行分析师在报告中指出:“小丑式的政策制造了小丑一样的市场。这在最近几个交易日的价格波动中体现得淋漓尽致——特朗普那种‘他在你背后——哦不,他不在!’的治理方式不仅导致市场反转,甚至可能在同一个事件驱动下引发完全相反的市场反应。”

  桥水基金警告:特朗普政策或引发经济衰退,全球资本正撤离美国资产。

  桥水发布报告警告,特朗普政府的“现代重商主义”政策转向可能引发经济衰退,并导致国际资本加速逃离美国市场。该机构预警称,美国衰退概率上升,特朗普关税政策引发的经济放缓“极可能恶化为衰退”。

  桥水基金指出贸易战正在反噬美国,所谓“暂缓征收”未能缓解贸易紧张局势,反而导致资本流动逆转——美国资产高度依赖的外资流入出现断流风险,这使得过去十年“美强他弱”的资产配置逻辑面临重构。

  桥水指出当前投资组合正暴露于四大风险之下:经济增长失速、美联储政策工具失效、股票持续表现不佳、美国资产相对全球市场落后。

  特朗普对美联储及鲍威尔态度发生转变

  特朗普周二晚些时候表示,他“无意”解雇美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔,鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月结束。这似乎提振了市场情绪,尤其是在特朗普和鲍威尔之间的关系最近几天变得更加紧张的情况下。本周早些时候,特朗普直呼鲍威尔为“彻头彻尾的输家”。

  但在美东时间周三,特朗普再次公开声称,鲍威尔将利率维持在过高水平,他可能会给其打电话。

  特朗普在椭圆形办公室的行政命令签署仪式上说:“我还没有给他(鲍威尔)打电话。我可能会给他打电话。我认为他不降低利率是一个错误,而且我认为,就像我们正在做的那样,我们可以做得更好。”

  随着特朗普对鲍威尔立场的软化,市场对美国货币和财政政策信誉的担忧有所缓解。10年期美债收益率下滑3个基点,至4.36%。在经历一段波动期后,该基准收益率连续第三天变动相对温和。

  目前市场预计到12月前将降息超80个基点。但由于美国关税政策尚未明朗,更遑论其对经济增长与通胀的影响,交易员对未来波动仍保持警惕。

  联储官员暗示6月可能降息

  克利夫兰联储行长哈马克周四暗示6月份可能降息。她呼吁在高度不确定性的情况下对货币政策保持耐心,如果数据显示有必要采取行动,不排除在6月前改变货币政策的可能性。

  哈马克在接受采访时表示:“我们将密切关注数据,每次开会时,我都会以开放的心态考虑,现在到底是应该继续保持耐心,还是应该采取行动。”

  她说:“如果我们在6月之前有明确和令人信服的数据,如果我们知道在那个时间点采取哪种行动是正确的,那么我认为委员会将采取行动。”

  摩根大通认为,美联储降息将给美债带来巨大机遇。

  该公司表示,美国国债比欧洲国债有更大的上涨潜力,因为交易员低估了美联储相较于欧洲央行的降息幅度。

  摩根大通分析师MylesBradshaw表示,特朗普总统的关税更有可能损害经济增长,而不是刺激通胀。他预计,在更长时间保持政策不变之后,美联储最终将需要更大幅度地降息。

  他称:“未来几年,美国的利率将高于3%,高于中性利率,我认为这是一个巨大的机会。”

  包括太平洋投资管理公司在内的一些全球投资者开始重新看到美国政府债券的吸引力,此前对特朗普关税政策的担忧引发了抛售,导致收益率飙升。

  经济数据

  周四经济数据面,截至4月19日当周美国初请失业金人数22.2万人,预期22.2万人,前值由21.5万人修正为21.6万人。

  美国耐用品的需求在3月份飙升,因为企业在特朗普总统本月初宣布关税之前获得了订单。

  美国商务部周四公布的数据显示,3月份汽车、飞机和电子设备等至少使用三年的商品订单总额较2月份增长9.2%。这是连续第三个月增长,与2月份0.9%的增幅相比,是一个巨大的飞跃。接受调查的经济学家此前预计的增幅仅为1.6%。美国商务部说,运输设备订单增长27%,资本货物订单增长24%,非国防飞机和零部件订单飙升139%。

  焦点个股

  据报道,苹果公司计划今年在印度将iPhone产量增加约10%。

  IBM股价大跌,其业绩未能达到市场高预期。

  德州仪器Q1业绩及Q2营收指引均超预期。

  高盛下调特斯拉目标价,此前数据显示该公司在欧盟的汽车销量连续三个月下滑。

  默沙东一季度业绩超预期。

  美国航空公司撤回2025年利润指引。

  高盛下调台积电公司的先进ARVR封装出货量预测。

  俄罗斯总统普京在经济问题会议上表示,俄罗斯需要利用世界经济中出现的机遇来发展本国的生产、出口以及贸易关系。

  普京称:“我们不仅需要追踪这些因素,预测它们的变化,最重要的是,要利用出现的机遇来发展国内生产、贸易关系和出口,并且从整体上增强国内经济实力,以便在任何外部条件下都能实现稳步、积极的发展。”

  普京表示:“1月至2月期间,按年率计算,GDP增长了1.9%。与此同时,加工制造业的增长更为活跃——今年头两个月增长了5%。”

  他指出,今年俄罗斯国内生产总值的增长速度将略低于去年。

  普京强调,俄罗斯应实现“稳定的经济增长速度,同时降低通货膨胀率,并保持低失业率”。

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