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  本报记者 刘 琪

  4月24日,中国人民银行(以下简称“央行”)发布公告称,为保持银行体系流动性充裕,2025年4月25日(周五),将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF(中期借贷便利)操作,期限为1年期。

  鉴于本月MLF到期量为1000亿元,故央行MLF口径将实现净投放5000亿元。这也将是央行连续第二个月加量续作MLF。3月份,央行开展4500亿元MLF,对冲3870亿元到期量后实现净投放630亿元。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认为,央行连续两个月加量续作MLF,而且本月加量幅度较上月的630亿元显著扩大,表明央行加大了通过MLF向市场注入中期流动性的力度。一方面,本月启动今年1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元特别国债发行,加之未来一段时间地方政府债券还会保持较快发行节奏,都意味着债市将迎来更大规模的发行高峰,需要央行通过适当的流动性安排,确保政府债券顺利发行,体现了货币政策与财政政策之间的协调配合。另一方面,4月份外部经贸环境骤然发生变化,宏观政策将在稳增长方向显著加力。其中,央行大幅加量续作MLF,体现了保持流动性充裕,加大对实体经济支持力度的政策取向,释放了货币政策发力稳增长的信号。

  除了1000亿元MLF到期外,4月份还有1.2万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购以及5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期。中信证券首席经济学家明明认为,本月MLF加大投放规模也可能是为了配合对冲买断式逆回购的到期压力。

  王青预计,本月央行买断式逆回购也会处于较大规模净投放状态。

  明明则认为,4月份受外部因素影响,市场对宽货币发力对冲的预期较为充足。不过,4月份以来总量降息、降准工具并未落地。当下央行选择先行加大MLF净投放规模,预计降准等数量端宽货币工具4月份进一步加码的可能性缩小。往后看,长期视角下降准等政策工具必要性仍高。

  此外,自3月份起,MLF操作由单一价位中标调整为多重价位中标(即美式招标),不再有统一的中标利率,这标志着MLF利率的政策属性完全淡出,MLF回归流动性投放工具定位,与其他各期限工具一同构成央行流动性工具体系。

  “政策利率属性淡出后,MLF的工具定位也更为清晰,即聚焦于提供1年期流动性。”业内专家表示,目前央行流动性工具箱丰富,期限分布更趋合理,长期有降准、国债买卖,中期有MLF、买断式逆回购操作以及各类结构性工具,短期有公开市场7天期逆回购、临时隔夜正、临时隔夜逆回购。未来央行流动性管理将更加高效精准,调控力度和节奏更加科学灵活,更好兼顾多重目标。

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