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  来源:证券之星

  市场全天震荡分化,三大指数涨跌不一,沪指一度站上3300点。

  盘面上,市场热点快速轮动,个股上涨和下跌家数基本相当。物流、统一大市场概念股集体走强,华鹏飞(维权)等多股涨停。跨境支付概念股震荡走高,青岛金王等涨停。农药、化肥概念股表现活跃,中农联合涨停。下跌方面,算力概念股展开调整,光环新网跌超5%。

  截至收盘,沪指涨0.25%,深成指跌0.36%,创业板指跌0.82%。高位股受资金追捧,国芳集团走出13天12板,红宝丽6天5板。沪深两市全天成交额1.09万亿,较上个交易日放量486亿。

  01. 跨境支付再迎利好催化

  今日,A股市场震荡为主,主要热点方向多是受消息面催化走强。

  首先,跨境支付概念股受政策利好催化涨幅靠前。

  消息面上,中国人民银行、金融监管总局、国家外汇局、上海市人民政府联合印发《上海国际金融中心进一步提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》。其中指出,提升人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)功能和全球网络覆盖。推动更多银行加入CIPS,持续扩大CIPS网络覆盖范围。

  方案推动更多银行加入CIPS,扩大其网络覆盖范围,这将直接增加跨境支付业务量。机构认为,市场对跨境支付服务的需求增加,拥有先进技术和丰富经验的企业有望率先受益。

  其次,统一大市场、物流概念股再度活跃。

  消息面上,工信部日前指出,下一步,将坚持集中力量办好自己的事,以开放促改革,以合作促共赢;坚持高质量供给,促进全国统一大市场建设,着力营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境,保持工业经济向稳向好发展势头。

  国务院近日也公布《国务院关于修改〈快递暂行条例〉的决定》,明确快递业发展总体要求、完善快递包装治理原则、强化快递企业主体责任、健全协同治理机制。该《条例》将于2025年6月1日起施行。浙江、广东、陕西、云南、重庆、河南等地亦出台了有效降低全社会物流成本行动方案。

  此外,农药、化肥概念股也于盘中走强。

  从逻辑看,农药化肥方向走强也是涨价逻辑的延伸。消息面上,近期在春季农药需求旺盛的情况下,部分农药原药品种的价格已经有明显回升。除草剂烯草酮、阿维菌素、甲维盐等较年初涨价均超10%。

  另一方面,大消费则再度陷入分化,其中影视、旅游酒店等板块跌幅居前,昨日强势的AI、算力等科技股方向今日跌幅居前。可见,当前市场热点依旧保持高速轮动,多数板块“一日游”行情特征明显。

  整体而言,缺乏增量的背景下,市场热点较为散乱,并且题材延续性也相对较差,分析人士建议,后续仍以震荡整理的结构看待,重点留意各热点的轮动性机会。

  02. 中央汇金一季度动向曝光

  4月份伊始,A股市场一度巨震,中央汇金迅速出手,大举增持ETF,极大地提振了市场信心。事实上,根据最新披露的基金2025年一季报,今年一季度,中央汇金就已经悄然增持了多只沪深300ETF。

  首先,中央汇金一季度增持华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF约3.63亿份。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF发布的2025年一季报显示,今年初“机构2”持有该ETF266.21亿份。根据该ETF的2024年年报,截至去年底,中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司持有该ETF 266.21亿份。

  上述数字表明,“机构2”即为中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司。今年一季度,中央汇金增持该ETF3.63亿份,截至一季度末,持有份额269.84亿份,占比31.72%。

  其次,类似的还有华夏沪深300ETF,中央汇金一季度增持1.57亿份。今年初“机构2”持有该ETF116.46亿份,一季度增持1.57亿份。结合华夏沪深300ETF披露的2024年年报可以推算出,“机构2”为中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司。截至一季度末,中央汇金持有118.02亿份,占比29.77%。

  此外,今年一季度,中央汇金还增持嘉实沪深300ETF1.17亿份,增持易方达沪深300ETF5.02亿份。

  从买入ETF的情况来看,中央汇金既看重估值水平,也看重成长性。

  从蓝筹风格ETF来看,截至2024年底,中央汇金持有沪深300相关ETF约6905亿元,持有上证50相关ETF超1000亿元;从成长风格ETF来看,中央汇金持有中证1000相关ETF902亿元,持有创业板和科创板相关ETF合计超500亿元。

  截至2024年底,中央汇金持有ETF金额合计已经突破万亿元。东吴证券分析师陈刚认为,以中央汇金为代表的中长期资金逆势增持,释放出明确的政策维稳信号,形成市场预期的稳定锚。

  03. 中信证券:A股配置价值将凸显

  最后,看一下A股市场后市。

  美债市场近期波动剧烈,反映市场对于美元资产信任在下降。中信证券认为,中长期来看,受益于政策托底和国内经济韧性,A股和人民币资产配置价值或将凸显。

  具体而言,对于人民币汇率,美债利率大幅波动短期对人民币影响有限,长期有利于人民币国际化和汇率稳定。本轮美债利率波动背后是美元信用弱化、部分外资机构减少对美债的持有,因而国内资金外流的压力有限,反而因为资金从美国外流而导致美元贬值,进而对人民币汇率有一定支撑。中长期而言,中国通过一系列稳增长政策增强了经济的韧性,为人民币汇率提供了有力支撑。

  对于中国股市,中长期可能会迎来转机。4~5月或是一轮筹码出清后的交易型机会,待下半年中美经济和政策周期同步后,到2026年美国中期选举前,是基于基本面逻辑做配置的最佳时间窗口。五大方向将占优:

  ①自主科技(先进制程、国产算力、模拟芯片、医疗设备及科研仪器等);②受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块(铜铝等基础工业品、军工、电力设备、基建相关通信及交运设备等);③纯内需必选消费(食品、养殖、乳制品、血制品);④稳定红利(水电、银行、运营商);⑤不依赖短期业绩的题材(多模态AI、AI/AR眼镜、MCP+Agent、核聚变、固态电池等)。

 

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