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  在2024年取得史上最佳的盈利之后,上市险企今年一季度的经营业绩表现如何,市场倍加关注。

  近日,中国人保发布业绩预喜公告称,承保业绩较快增长,投资业绩大幅提升。研究机构普遍预计,头部财险公司承保业绩显著改善,不过寿险公司的经营业绩或有一定分化,新单保费增减不一,权益投资收益将成利润的胜负手。

  财险净利增长获双重驱动

  中国人保在率先发布的业绩公告中称,预计集团一季度实现归母净利润为116.52亿~134.45亿元,同比增长30%~50%。

  根据公告,中国人保业绩增长主要得益于承保和投资两端。在保险端,该集团不断优化业务结构、提升业务质量,承保业绩较快增长;在投资端,该集团落实中长期资金入市要求,不断优化行业配置结构,进一步提升资产配置的稳定性、灵活性及前瞻性,投资业绩大幅提升。

  中国人保财险子公司人保财险也在港股市场公告,预计一季度净利润将同比增加80%~100%。

  人保财险解释称,公司优化费用投入,改善业务结构,推进风险减量服务,加之大灾损失同比减少,承保利润同比增幅较大。同时,在保持流动性安全边际的基础上,公司适度增配具有长期价值的优质权益类资产。受益于一季度资本市场整体回暖,公司配置结构的优化放大了市场上涨的正向效应,总投资收益同比增幅较大。

  目前,暂无其他上市险企预披露业绩的情况。民生证券非银团队预计,一季度寿险利润或会有所分化,财险有望继续稳健增长。在保险公司资产端,一季度长端利率下行趋势明显,权益投资表现或成胜负手。

  该团队认为,保险资产端的短期压力更多来自于当期新增保费的配置,但是需要关注到头部险企存量配置的厚度,前期配置的长久期、相对高收益的债券品种以及近年来逐渐增强的高股息股票配置所贡献的股息,有望支撑净投资收益。3月以来,以10年期国债为代表的长端利率波动加大且有所回调,以配置盘为主的险资有望积极把握利率回升的机会,进行“相对高点”的择机配置,并利用波动积极进行交易以增厚固收的收益。

  另有行业人士向证券时报记者表示,去年一季度上市险企的盈利普遍下滑,基数较小,客观上也会助推其今年一季度盈利的同比表现。

  财险承保效益显著改善

  财险板块超预期的承保效益,成为中国人保业绩增长的主因之一。对于头部财险公司一季度的承保业绩,机构研报也表示看好。

  人保财险总裁于泽在3月份举行的业绩发布会上表示,今年公司的车险综合成本率力争达到96%以内,非车险承保盈利希望比2024年明显改善,成本率力争达到99%左右。他还透露,1~2月,人保财险的车险综合成本率在93%多一点的水平,全险种的综合成本率低于94%。

  国泰海通非银团队分析,一季度上市险企财险保费增长缓慢,其中车险保费主要受承保车辆增长驱动,车均保费有所企稳;经济复苏预期下,非车业务需求仍然旺盛。得益于外部巨灾赔付影响减少以及内部降赔控费初步显效,预计头部财险公司综合成本率将显著改善。

  东吴证券非银团队也预计,财险公司综合成本率同比明显改善,这有外部环境和内部驱动的多重原因。从外部看,一季度大灾较少利好财险公司降低赔付。据国家应急管理部数据,2025年一季度国内重大自然灾害损失同比明显减少,将利好财险公司赔付支出的下降。从内部看,人保财险持续优化业务结构,持续推动风险减量与降本增效。近年来,人保财险持续优化业务结构,大力拓展家庭自用车新车市场份额,加速布局个人非车业务,改善法人业务结构。同时,建立全面降本增效机制,积极推行“报行合一”,预计2025年有望持续显效。

  新业务价值或将表现平稳

  寿险公司方面,机构研报普遍预计,一季度业务指标存在一定分化。

  目前,在A股五大上市险企中,中国人保、中国人寿和中国平安已不再披露月度保费,另外两家险企方面,寿险公司一季度保费均有较好增长。其中,中国太保原保险保费收入1002.15亿元,同比增长9.3%;新华保险原保险保费收入732.18亿元,同比增长28%。

  民生证券非银团队认为,上市寿险总保费收入或有所分化,总保费收入需要综合考虑新单和续期的影响。续期方面,由于有历年同期期交保单的支撑,预计各大上市险企续期保费仍将保持较快增长,新单保费则由于产品切换及去年预定利率的调整或有所承压。从基数方面来看,中国人寿2024年1~3月的基数相对较高,太保寿险、新华保险和人保寿险的基数较低,预计新华保险、太保寿险和人保寿险今年一季度总保费将保持较快增长。

  在寿险公司重视的新业务价值(NBV)方面,机构研报认为将表现平稳。

  国泰海通非银团队预计,寿险NBV回归平稳增长。一季度,上市险企个险新业务增长整体承压,主要受前期客需消耗过多、产品策略转向分红险,而短期客户接受程度不及预期以及强化费用管控导致,预计银保等多元化渠道将为NBV增长带来重要贡献。同时,负债成本压降利好利差损风险改善。

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