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昨天说过,由于卖出限制加上gjd护盘,大资金买也不敢买、卖也不能卖,再加上4月底一季报雷比较多,后面又接着五一长假,资金自然谨慎又谨慎,市场交投非常低迷,两市成交额缩量至9147亿,创下去年924以来新低,次低是1月13日的9670亿元。

这几天的行情都是类似的戏码,先砸盘,尾盘gjd出手完成护盘KPI,上证指数一度翻红-九连涨,但资金竞价砸盘,上证指数收跌0.11%,终止于八连涨。不过,这八连涨跟散户没多大关系,只是说避免了流动性危机的发生,至于上涨就别多想了,四大行今天盘中新高了,相信大部分散户离新高还有一大段距离。

今天消息面如同盘面一般平淡,重点关注四大消息:

由于美联储鲍威尔不肯降息,给特朗普气坏了。特朗普批评鲍威尔玩弄政治,放话称总统有权解职美联储主席。同日有报道称,特朗普已与顾问讨论解雇鲍威尔,但财长贝森特认为此举得不偿失。

工信部:将全力推进人工智能赋能新型工业化加强通用大模型和行业大模型的研发布局。

今天盘中德国5g相关消息发酵。据媒体报道,4月10日,正在组建新政府的德国联盟党(基民盟/基社盟)和社民党制定的联盟协议中做出修改,仅指出只能安装“受信任的组件”,删除了“值得信赖的原产国”这样的字样。

东北通信认为,德国作为欧盟经济龙头,其政策调整具有示范效应,可能推动意大利、西班牙等尚未明确禁用华为的国家跟进松绑。若欧洲市场逐步开放,华为5G设备及解决方案的海外订单有望回升,直接利好其通信设备供应链。

受此消息刺激,硕贝德、盛路通信、武汉凡谷、华脉科技(维权)、东方通(维权)信等多股涨停。

关税传来利好消息,美国总统特朗普周四表示,中美相互加征关税的局面有望迎来转机。这和之前美国财长贝森特表态类似,当前的关税和脱钩没有区别,随着时间的拉长,对普通居民、工业生产的冲击将显现。

最后简单看下盘面,截至收盘,上证指数跌幅为0.11%,创业板指涨幅为0.27%,港股休市。涨跌基本各半,67家涨停,20家跌停。

分行业来看,通信、房地产、银行、非银金融、钢铁等行业领涨,美容护理、社会服务、纺织服饰、农林牧渔、商贸零售等行业领跌。

  4月18日,银行板块持续走强,中证银行指数已7连涨,工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、上海银行等在盘中均创出历史新高。

  其中,建设银行报收9.22元/股,涨1.54%,总市值15758亿元;工商银行报收7.14元/股,涨1.28%,总市值23531亿元;农业银行报收5.42元/股,涨0.93%,总市值18588亿元;中国银行报收5.68元/股,涨0.35%,总市值15420亿元。

  上海银行更是在近3个交易日连创新高,18日报收10.59元/股,总市值站上了1500亿元。另外,兴业银行、厦门银行、长沙银行亦涨幅靠前。

  今年以来,中证银行指数累计涨幅达到3.41%,上海银行涨幅居首,为15.74%,齐鲁银行、渝农商行、兴业银行、重庆银行均涨超10%。

  值得注意的是,银行股近段时间以来屡创新高,也被市场解读为降准降息的前兆,此前,央行曾多次表态要择机降准降息,有市场观点认为目前时机可能已经成熟。

  去年以来,央行进行了两轮降准,分别为2024年1月24日和2024年9月27日;3轮降息,分别为1月22日、6月20日、9月20日。

  第一财经根据历史数据统计,降准降息的前后,银行股大多有不俗的表现,比如2024年1月1日-2月22日期间,中证银行指数涨12.9%;9月12日-10月8日期间,中证银行指数涨21.9%。

  银河证券研报指出,央行公布2025年3月金融数据,社融信贷增长超过预期,资金活化程度提高。政府债继续发力支撑社融。关注有效信贷需求改善的持续性。货币政策适度宽松状态延续,降准降息预期增强。大行增资开启,基本面积极因素累积,利好银行信贷投放和资产质量。

  湘财证券分析师仇华认为,预期2025年存款准备金率的调整次数可能也为两次,预期降准发生在2025年4月和7月,释放资金1.5万亿元左右。预期LPR下调时间滞后于降准,全年降幅在25BP左右。

  招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼认为,从目前金融数据分析,短期内LPR下行的可能性降低,而降准的必要性更大。

  “二季度,可实施全面降准0.5个百分点,进一步传递出提振投资者信心、维护资本市场稳定的明确信号。降准可释放长期稳定的低成本资金,有助于进一步降低银行资金成本,推动银行更好服务实体经济,促进经济高质量发展,为应对外部冲击、稳定资产价格等奠定更加坚实的基础。”他说。

  目前,已有35家上市银行披露2024年业绩,合计营收基本持平、归属净利润增长2.4%。展望2025年,国泰海通证券分析师刘源预计,2025年上市银行的营收压力略大于2024年,净利润增长中枢较2024年微降,但仍有望保持正增长,资本充足率和分红率延续平稳。

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