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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82
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  “我行3年期定存利率最高是1.65%,2年期定存利率最高是1.7%,存3年不如存2年。”在平安银行北京市丰台区一家网点内记者了解到,这家银行近期下调了3年期定存利率,较此前的2.05%,下调幅度高达40个基点,利率长短期倒挂现象也随之产生。

  平安银行并非个例。记者走访或致电全国多地银行了解到,随着近期银行密集下调中长期存款利率,利率长短期倒挂现象在大中型银行中均不难发现。

  在业内人士看来,出现上述现象的原因主要在于利率下行预期强烈、短期流动性压力加大、银行负债端压力加剧、银行主动优化调整负债结构等。考虑到2025年或继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,银行净息差持续收窄隐忧仍存。为打好“保卫息差”攻坚战,多家银行从负债和资产两端发力:一方面,聚焦吸收低成本存款,管控高成本存款,降低整体负债成本;另一方面,力求做好大类资产配置,鼓励优质信贷投放,加大对实体经济支持力度,同时提升资金运用效率。

  ●本报记者李静石诗语

  存款利率长短期倒挂

  通常情况下,银行定期存款期限越长,利率越高。然而,当前这一传统认知被打破,部分银行出现中短期存款利率高于长期存款利率的倒挂现象。

  记者走访北京地区多家银行了解到,包括平安银行、光大银行、南京银行在内的多家机构,近期宣布下调中长期存款利率。下调后,多家银行出现存款利率长短期倒挂现象。

  “上周调整了存款利率,目前1年期定存利率是1.85%,2年期定存利率是1.95%,3年期定存利率是2.2%,都是1万元起存,调整之前3年期定存利率是2.25%。”南京银行西城区一家支行的工作人员告诉记者。

  此外,部分银行上调了中长期定存产品起存点。例如,光大银行北京地区一位理财经理告诉记者:“近期我行对3年期定存产品起存金额做了调整。此前,利率2.15%的3年期定存产品20万元起存,现在提高到50万元起存。30万元起存的定存产品利率为2.14%,1万元起存的定存产品利率为2.05%。”

  事实上,4月以来,福建、山东、湖北、云南、江苏等地多家中小银行密集下调存款利率,部分银行下调幅度高达50个基点。

  本轮利率调整后,部分银行出现存款利率长短期倒挂现象。

  记者发现,当前建设银行、招商银行、平安银行等大中型银行也存在存款利率长短期倒挂现象。

  4月15日,记者查询建设银行App发现,3年期定存最高年利率为1.90%,比5年期定存最高年利率高出35个基点。招商银行App显示,1年期、2年期“灵动存”最高年利率分别为1.60%、1.70%,起存金额均为1000元;而3年期、5年期“灵动存”最高年利率分别为1.50%、1.55%,均低于1年期、2年期“灵动存”最高年利率,起存金额均为50元。

  记者发现,2024年,吉林、贵州、河南等地部分村镇银行就出现了存款利率倒挂现象。

  根据融360数字科技研究院2024年8月的统计数据,股份制银行、城市商业银行、农村商业银行的3年期与5年期定存平均利率均出现不同程度倒挂。其中,城商行存款利率倒挂幅度最大,3年期定存平均利率较5年期定存平均利率高出近12个基点。

  多重因素共振

  在业内人士看来,出现存款利率长短期倒挂现象的原因主要在于银行负债端压力加大、银行主动调整负债结构、预期未来利率将继续下行等。

  银行负债端压力加剧是主要原因之一。“年初以来,银行尤其是大型银行信贷投放力度较大,导致对短期流动性的需求上升。与之相适应,银行增加了同业存单发行规模、加大了对短期存款的争夺力度。”上海金融与发展实验室主任、首席专家曾刚说。

  中国银行研究院银行业与综合经营团队主管邵科认为,当前财富管理和资产管理机构推出高流动性产品分流了银行存款,银行存款竞争压力有所增加,不得不适当调整短期利率以保持市场份额、控制负债成本。

  银行主动调整负债结构也是重要原因。“银行通过调高短期存款利率,吸引短期存款,从而优化负债结构,降低长期资金成本。这种策略性调整既是应对存款竞争加剧的手段,也是提升经营效益的需要。”曾刚说。

  此外,银行预期未来利率将继续下行,为降低长期负债成本,银行主动压低长期存款利率。“短期利率更多反映当前利率水平,中长期利率则更多计入了对未来利率变动的预期。存款利率出现期限倒挂,表明银行预期未来利率会进一步下降。个别银行通过提前调降中长期存款利率来控制未来负债成本,就容易出现期限倒挂现象。”苏商银行特邀研究员薛洪言说。

  邵科也表达了类似看法:“央行持续强化逆周期调节,坚持适度宽松的货币政策立场,未来将适时降准降息。银行预判存款利率将保持继续下行趋势,主动调整中长期存款的利率水平,适度减少对中长期存款的吸纳,从而根据利率预期控制负债成本,稳定净息差水平。”

  建设银行首席财务官生柳荣在2024年度业绩发布会上表示,下一步,将加强资产负债的结构优化和存贷款的定价管理。

  “总体来看,考虑到今年我国将实施适度宽松的货币政策,而且央行表示将适时降准降息,LPR和金融市场利率未来仍有小幅下行的可能,我们预计2025年银行业净息差仍面临一定下行压力,但下行幅度会小于去年。”生柳荣说。

  关于2025年LPR走势,工商银行副行长姚明德表示:“我们的基本判断是2025年LPR将继续维持下调的趋势。LPR的形成机制是由市场供需关系、商业银行报价以及央行货币政策工具共同决定的。LPR的变动需平衡实体经济的融资成本、银行盈利能力和宏观风险防控三重目标。”

  “近年来存款利率传导机制不断畅通,政策利率下调后,引导带动LPR跟随调整,降低社会融资成本。商业银行也将根据这种趋势适时调整存款的挂牌利率,降低负债成本、稳定息差水平,提升服务实体经济的可持续性,更好地平衡稳增长与防风险、支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康的关系。”姚明德分析称。

  保卫息差

  数据显示,在已披露2024年报的A股上市银行中,2024年净息差较2023年全部下降,平均降幅为17个基点。有5家银行降幅大于等于30个基点,其中平安银行降幅最大,达51个基点;14家银行降幅为10个基点至20个基点;交通银行和中信银行降幅最小,均为1个基点。

  面对净息差收窄的挑战,多家银行从负债和资产两端发力,力求将净息差保持在合理水平。

  姚明德表示:“2025年,工行将在资产端和负债端协同发力,一是持续优化大类资产布局,积极支持长周期特别国债、地方政府专项债,以及符合工商银行风险偏好和经营策略的信用债投资,注重推动资产久期结构调整;二是科学做好信贷投放的安排,积极对接实体经济需求,加力支持个人按揭、消费贷、信用卡透支等业务的发展,助力提振消费;三是继续做好资产负债的成本管理。在做好减费让利支持实体经济发展的同时,努力提升风险定价水平,实施全口径负债的成本管理,杜绝‘内卷式’竞争,主动优化期现结构和品种结构,同时提升我们服务客户的能力和水平,让流动性资金、结算性资金占比不断提升,实现银行发展与社会效益的双赢。”

  平安银行表示,从负债端来看,2025年该行将聚焦吸收低成本存款,管控高成本存款,灵活调整外币资金吸收策略,敏捷控制存款与同业负债吸收节奏,降低整体负债成本。从资产端来看,该行将持续做好大类资产配置,鼓励优质信贷投放,加大对实体经济支持力度,同时加强市场研判,灵活动态配置同业资产,提升资金运用效率。“平安银行今年零售负债端必须退出高成本行列,回到倒数第二、第三的低成本行列。”平安银行行长冀光恒说。

  兴业银行则提出了更具体的做法,主要策略是以工资代发、收单、快捷支付等业务为突破口拓展结算性存款。“2024年我行40%的零售结算存款是由工资代发、收单等业务的客户带来的。”兴业银行计划财务部总经理林舒说。

  “2025年我行存款付息率约有20个基点的下降空间,但资产端收益率也会快速下降。2025年兴业银行净息差可能会下降10个基点,截至2月底,净息差已下降逾7个基点。”林舒说,除了要精耕细作零售客户,2025年该行还将重点发力两个板块:一是企金业务做好织网工程,提高企金客户的动户率,从而构建闭环资金链;二是当前金融市场利率下行,今年需要优化金融市场业务的负债规模与久期管理策略。

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