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  新华财经上海4月24日电(张天源)当地时间4月22日(周二),美国财政部公布最新一批美债招标结果,数据显示海外投资者对美债的投资需求已刷新硅谷银行危机以来的新低。市场对于美债避险资产的认可度下降增加了美债标售压力,国际避险资产格局迎来重构。

  美债海外需求创阶段新低

  据美国财政部公告,最新一批690亿美元两年期美国国债的拍卖中标利率为3.795%,为去年9月以来的最低水平(此前3月25日为3.984%),同时出现0.6个基点的尾部利差,投标倍数2.52也低于近期平均水平。

  数据显示,尽管美国国内需求强劲,其关键指标“直接投标者”占比高达30.1%,而衡量海外需求的指标,即“间接投标者”仅占56.2%,创下2023年硅谷银行危机以来最低点。

数据来源:美国财政部

  业内人士表示,虽然海外投资者需求在两周前仍然较为强劲,但这一次的结果却大幅下降,如果参与美债招标的海外投资者比例再下降10-20%,美联储可能别无选择,只能重启量化宽松政策,并向市场表示其将成为美国国债的“最后买家”。

  麦格理集团(MacquarieGroupLtd.)驻新加坡的策略师加雷思·贝里(GarethBerry)认为,美债拍卖是其对海外投资者吸引力的“试金石”。据美国财政部已公布的数据显示,除了已经完成招标的两年期美债之外,本周还有五年期和七年期等数批次以往深受国际投资者追捧的中短期美债等待招标。这些债券的标售结果将对未来美债市场的走向产生指向性的影响。

  国际避险资产格局重构

  随着近期美元资产受到市场抛售,传统避险资产的格局面临重构。传统意义上的避险资产主要有黄金、避险货币和国债,其中美元和美国国债是国际市场上最重要的避险资产选项之一。如今随着投资者减持美元资产,黄金走势格外亮眼,非美避险资产也迎来了普涨。

数据来源:新华财经

  在市场看来,美债收益率剧烈波动会加大全球主权债市场定价压力,并推动全球资产配置格局重塑,使黄金的货币属性和避险属性进一步凸显。尽管4月23日金价出现回调,但今年迄今走势领跑各类资产,国际金价屡次刷新历史新高。有业内人士表示,虽然中长期黄金上涨逻辑稳固、市场仍然是多头配置策略,但短期市场做多交易较为拥挤,黄金波动料进一步增加,应当注意杠杆资金止盈带来的回调风险。

  除了黄金之外,市场对避险资金的流向有着不同的看法。国泰海通研报指出,当前海外市场避险需求攀升,投资者正在抛售此前最安全的避险资产美国国债,转向现金资产以应对市场巨幅波动。当前情况下,相较于美债,欧债、日债波动较小,全球避险资产的配置面临新格局重建。欧洲、日本国债或得到避险资金的青睐。

  除了欧洲和日本的国债之外,新兴市场国家发行的债券同样受到了市场的热捧。4月23日,印度10年期基准国债收益率一度跌至6.2981%,为2021年11月10日以来的最低水平。澳大利亚10年期国债收益率自4月初跌至去年12月以来最低之后,始终维持暖意。

  此外,在国际市场波动率居高不下的时刻,中国资产的配置价值也显得愈发可贵。中信证券认为,中长期来看,受益于政策托底和国内经济韧性,A股和人民币资产配置价值或将凸显。具体而言,美债利率大幅波动短期对人民币影响有限,长期则有利于人民币国际化和汇率稳定。

  浙商固收研究所最新研报认为,下一阶段国内债市仍处于相对逆风的市场环境,港股及A股尤其是科技版块有望走出长牛行情,人民币汇率企稳升值的潜在路径将逐步显现。

  编辑:王菁

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