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果洛藏族自治州(班玛县、玛多县、久治县、达日县、甘德县、玛沁县)  阳江市(阳春市、阳东区、江城区、阳西县)









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黄南藏族自治州(泽库县、同仁市、河南蒙古族自治县、尖扎县)









宿州市(泗县、灵璧县、埇桥区、萧县、砀山县)黑河市(嫩江市、逊克县、五大连池市、孙吴县、爱辉区、北安市)









玉溪市(易门县、新平彝族傣族自治县、通海县、江川区、元江哈尼族彝族傣族自治县、峨山彝族自治县、澄江市、红塔区、华宁县)  咸阳市(秦都区、淳化县、泾阳县、杨陵区、渭城区、永寿县、长武县、三原县、乾县、旬邑县、彬州市、礼泉县、武功县、兴平市)









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文山壮族苗族自治州(马关县、广南县、富宁县、文山市、丘北县、砚山县、麻栗坡县、西畴县)









衢州市(衢江区、龙游县、江山市、柯城区、常山县、开化县)









安康市(汉滨区、平利县、岚皋县、镇坪县、宁陕县、紫阳县、汉阴县、旬阳市、石泉县、白河县)









鄂尔多斯市(鄂托克前旗、乌审旗、康巴什区、准格尔旗、鄂托克旗、东胜区、达拉特旗、杭锦旗、伊金霍洛旗)









张掖市(甘州区、山丹县、民乐县、高台县、临泽县、肃南裕固族自治县)

高频数据跟踪:近7日民航国内日均旅客量同比+1.6%,国内日均航班量同比-1.8%,国内日均客座率84.4%,同比+3.1%;跨境日均旅客量恢复至19年的82.8%,跨境航班量恢复至19年的81.5%,跨境客座率80.1%,较19年+0.7%;民航国内全票价(含油)同比-3.4%,跨境全票价同比+8.5%。注:公历周对齐。

航司3月数据分析:

1)整体来看:3月:ASK同比:东航(6.7%)>吉祥(4.5%)>南航(3.1%)>春秋(1.7%)>国航(0.4%),RPK同比:东航(10.5%)>南航(6.1%)>吉祥(3.4%)>国航(2.0%)>春秋(1.8%);1~3月累计:ASK同比:春秋(6.9%)>吉祥(6.7%)>东航(6.5%)>南航(4.9%)>国航(2.6%),RPK同比:东航(10.9%)>南航(7.9%)>春秋(6.2%)>吉祥(5.0%)>国航(3.5%)。

2)国内线:3月:ASK同比:东航(-1.4%)>南航(-3.2%)>春秋(-4.9%)>国航(-4.9%)>吉祥(-9.5%),RPK同比:东航(3.4%)>南航(0.6%)>国航(-1.3%)>春秋(-4.1%)>吉祥(-8.4%);1~3月累计:ASK同比:南航(-1.1%)>东航(-1.4%)>春秋(-3.3%)>国航(-3.5%)>吉祥(-9.3%),RPK同比:东航(3.5%)>南航(2.0%)>国航(-1.6%)>春秋(-2.9%)>吉祥(-8.9%)。

3)国际线:3月:ASK同比:吉祥(64.6%)>春秋(42.0%)>东航(28.4%)>南航(25.5%)>国航(15.7%),RPK同比:吉祥(57.7%)>春秋(39.1%)>东航(29.4%)>南航(25.5%)>国航(11.2%);1~3月累计:ASK同比:吉祥(80.2%)>春秋(66.1%)>东航(28.7%)>南航(26.0%)>国航(21.6%),RPK同比:吉祥(75.9%)>春秋(61.6%)>东航(32.1%)>南航(29.5%)>国航(20.0%)。

4)地区线:3月:ASK同比:国航(2.3%)>南航(1.8%)>东航(-6.1%)>吉祥(-15.0%)>春秋(-57.9%),RPK同比:国航(4.8%)>东航(4.1%)>南航(2.3%)>吉祥(-9.7%)>春秋(-56.2%);1~3月累计:ASK同比:南航(5.2%)>国航(1.3%)>吉祥(-4.5%)>东航(-6.6%)>春秋(-58.1%),RPK同比:南航(4.2%)>东航(2.2%)>国航(1.7%)>吉祥(-2.3%)>春秋(-58.6%)。

2、客座率:3月:春秋(89.7%,同比+0.1%,环比-1.7%)>南航(84.7%,同比+2.4%,环比-2.0%)>吉祥(84.5%,同比-0.9%,环比-1.0%)>东航(84.2%,同比+2.9%,环比-1.0%)>国航(79.7%,同比+1.2%,环比-2.4%);1~3月:春秋(90.6%,同比-0.6%)>南航(85.4%,同比+2.4%)>吉祥(84.1%,同比-1.4%)>东航(84.0%,同比+3.3%)>国航(80.2%,同比+0.7%)。

3、机队数:2025年3月5家上市航司合计净增加15架飞机;截至3月底,5家航司机队数同比增加3.0%,较24年底增加1.2%。

关税政策或扰动飞机交付。根据三大航客运飞机引进与退出计划,三家航司25年计划引进飞机194架,退出飞机79架,净增115架。其中波音飞机计划引进46架(占总引进比24%),退出波音飞机31架。若扣除波音净增量,三家航司增速下降至3.8%;若考虑不引进,退出维持,增速进一步降至2.6%。

投资建议:我们继续强调积极看待航空股投资机会,1)需求端仍具韧性:国内需求内生增长+国际航线持续修复;2)供给持续约束,关税政策或扰动飞机交付;3)油价下跌对成本减负;4)投资建议:继续看好国内支线市场龙头华夏航空,迎来可持续经营拐点;看好低成本航空龙头春秋航空,凭借低成本核心竞争力,将“流量-成本-价格”发挥到极致;静待以中国国航为代表的三大航弹性释放;看好国际航线领先恢复,宽体机高效运营有望助力吉祥航空弹性释放。

风险提示:经济出现下滑、油价大幅上升及人民币大幅贬值。

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