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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  摩根士丹利发布研报称,下调中国中车(01766)目标价8.3%,从6港元降至5.5港元,维持“增持”评级。大摩对该公司2025-2026年收入预测大体不变,毛利率预测下调1.9-2个百分点,考虑2024年的数据,对该公司2025年纯利预测下调10%,2026年下调12%,同时引入2027年预测。对该公司的基本假设认为,2024-2026年动车组(MU)整体销量为约700台,而2021-2023年为420台,增长60%以上。

  来源:华夏时报

  对等关税风波之下,对银行外贸相关业务影响有多大?近期,已有多家中小银行对此回应了市场关切。

  结合银行的公开回应和采访,《华夏时报》记者了解到,已有多家银行对相关情况进行了摸底和调研,但由于相关政策影响传导到银行端链条较长,具有一定的滞后性,从银行的角度来看,当前影响较为有限且整体可控,已有银行针对可能产生的影响制定了相应举措。

  多家中小银行表示“影响有限”

  浙江绍兴柯桥区是瑞丰银行的总部所在地,也是该行的主要展业区域之一。4月16日,谈及对等关税政策的影响,瑞丰银行党委书记、董事长吴智晖在2024年业绩说明会上表示,将以区域经济的共生能量,应对外贸冲击。他指出,2024年瑞丰银行国际结算等业务增量迅猛,对等关税风波之后,该行已经主动开展了摸底和调研,了解辖内外贸企业情况和相关信贷情况。

  数据显示,美国是浙江第一大出口国,2024年浙江对美出口达6316.8亿元,占全省出口总额的16.2%。

  “关税政策对区域内的企业影响肯定是深远的,但相对来看,我们主要展业的区域影响可能并不会比大家想象中大。”瑞丰银行相关负责人告诉《华夏时报》记者,2024年柯桥区对美直接出口总额占该区出口总额的比重不足4%,从数据的层面来看,柯桥区虽为出口导向型经济,但对美直接出口的占比相对较低。

  除了瑞丰银行,浙江省内多家银行都在近期针对等关税政策回应了市场关切。其中,宁波银行、浙江泰隆银行、温州民商银行等多家银行都表示,目前关税的影响还是可控,对未来影响还需要继续观察。

  浙商银行则称,该行正在内部梳理应对关税战的举措,将于近日对外公布。

  从沿海地区来看,山东地区的青岛银行表示,关税政策对该行业务影响有限。虽然国际业务是青岛银行过去三年战略规划的重点板块之一,但青岛银行认为,从国际结算业务规模看,行内涉美贸易结算占比相对较低,涉美业务集中度不高,对涉美资产业务的影响有限,部分客户已采取拓展新渠道、平摊关税成本等应对措施,影响范围相对有限。

  福建地区的厦门国际银行告诉记者,关税战爆发后,该行第一时间组织机构调研外贸企业受影响情况,全面排查并跟进现有企业的金融需求,深入了解了企业在外贸政策、结算、融资等方面的金融需求。

  《华夏时报》记者同时询问了湖北、山西、四川等地的多家中小银行,银行均回复称当前对业务影响较小。

  多家机构也在相关研报中指出,由于传导链条较长,“关税战”对银行业的影响相对有限。中泰证券认为,对等关税使经济压力增加,对银行的贷款需求和净息差带来额外压力,但总体上银行资产质量能保持稳健,行业息差也已接近底线,影响相对可控。

  多家中小银行已有对应举措

  凭借全球化布局和综合化服务能力,国有大行、股份制银行在外贸业务的跨境综合服务中更具优势,在跨境结算、国际融资等领域具有较大业务量。而中小银行受限于全球网络和资本规模,通常与地方经济联系紧密,更多服务于本地中小外贸企业的境内融资需求,以本地化、普惠性信贷为主。在调研过程中,记者注意到,多家中小银行在回应关税战的影响时提到,“外贸相关客户不多”“客户体量较小”,因此影响有限。

  “关税政策对银行端的影响相对后置,我行服务的中小微企业较多,外贸相关客户主要分布在小微制造业和电商类型的企业,客群规模小,在行内占比不高,监管方面已经就此调研了相关情况。”有浙江地区银行工作人员告诉《华夏时报》记者。

  中金公司银行团队也在近期研报中指出,(历史经验来看,出口增速下滑时期)对于国企和基建敞口占比相对更高的国有大行和区域银行而言,资产质量表现相对更加稳健,对于位于沿海省份、出口产业链敞口占比较高的区域银行资产质量影响相对较大。

  记者注意到,针对可能产生的影响,多家中小银行已制定了对应举措。

  江苏地区的江阴银行在近期回复投资者提问时表示,当前“我行已充分认识到美国关税政策可能对贷款需求和净息差带来的压力,正通过优化资产结构、加大内需信贷投放和积极响应政策导向等措施,有效应对外部挑战,确保经营平稳、稳健、高效发展”。

  瑞丰银行相关负责人告诉记者,在应对关税影响的具体举措上,该行会加大政策分析及对客指导、充分运用汇率避险产品、持续开展减费让利行动,加强对客户的走访跟进及贷后管理,也会针对企业收款异常等情况进行实时监测,做好紧急预案。

  厦门国际银行相关工作人员也向《华夏时报》记者表示,本轮关税政策和汇率波动是主要的影响因素,该行一方面强化对客汇率避险产品服务体系,助力外贸企业做好汇率“风险中性”管理;其次是推出包括境外贷款、跨境并购贷款、跨境银团、中长期项目贷款等,满足外贸企业短期资金周转压力及拓展新兴市场需求,帮助外贸企业应对关税战影响。

  为传递对资本市场发展前景的坚定信心,关税战以来,已有多家银行股东、高管增持股票,为市场注入“真金白银”。分析人士指出,对等关税政策对银行业的冲击有限,在此背景下,银行股红利价值凸显,高管和大股东的增持传递出对银行发展前景、业绩增长以及股价稳定的长期信心。

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