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  长线资金对A股的影响力越来越大。

  4月17日,上证指数录得八连阳,作为红利资产压舱石的银行板块功不可没。

  自4月10日以来,银行板块已强势六连涨,累计涨幅4.2%,农业银行、建设银行、上海银行等更是在盘中屡创新高。17日,建设银行报收9.08元/股,上海银行报收10.49元/股,均达到了历史最高点。

  “银行股普遍具备高股息、低波动的优势,更适合耐心资本投资。从2022年年底以来,银行股基本维持了持续上升的走势,反映出长线资金对A股的影响力越来越大。”鑫鼎基金首席经济学家胡宇对第一财经记者说道。

  银行板块六连涨

  4月17日,建设银行、上海银行再度于盘中创下历史新高。

  其中,上海银行16日大涨3.29%,17日再涨1.25%,其年内涨幅达14.64%,在中证银行指数成份股中排名第一。根据业绩快报,上海银行去年营业收入同比增长4.79%,归属净利润同比增长4.50%,不良贷款余额、不良贷款率实现双降。

  建设银行同样连续两日创新高,17日盘中最高触及9.10元/股,年内涨幅为5.71%,总市值达到15766亿元。

  另外,渝农商行涨幅靠前,自4月10日银行板块启动六连涨以来,渝农商行涨超9.61%,涨幅位列第一,16日股价创历史新高,17日有所回落,报收6.50元/股,跌0.46%。

  近日,渝农商行迎来“新掌门”,4月16日晚,该行公告董事会选举刘小军担任第五届董事会董事长。履历显示,刘小军现任公司党委书记,此前曾在建设银行、中信信托等金融机构任职。

  该行一季度业绩快报显示:期内实现营业收入72.24亿元,同比增长1.35%;归属净利润37.45亿元,同比增长6.27%。

  另外,农业银行16日盘中创新高,17日收盘报5.37元/股,与前一日持平,总市值为18431亿元。

  长线资金对A股影响力越来越大

  对于此轮银行股的走势,银河证券研报认为,受汇金增持、ETF扩容影响,银行板块资金面改善预期强化,被动型资金为主导的银行板块红利行情有望延续,权重股受益更显著。

  4月7日,中央汇金公司宣布已增持了交易型开放式指数基金(ETF),未来将继续增持,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。同时,中国人民银行表示,坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股票市场指数基金,并在必要时向中央汇金公司提供充足的再贷款支持,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。

  另外,4月8日以来,包括邮储银行、光大银行、成都银行、浙商银行、江苏银行等在内的多家银行密集公告增持计划、估值提升计划,以表达对银行以及中国资本市场发展前景的认可,提升投资者信心,维护中小投资者利益。

  可以看到,今年以来,保险资金、公募基金均在加大对银行股的配置力度,包括农业银行H股、招商银行H股、邮储银行H股、中信银行H股、杭州银行等都曾被险企举牌。

  “政策鼓励保险、社保等耐心资本持续增加权益资产投资,以银行股为代表的高股息红利股是长线资金的重要投资组成部分;中国长期利率下行过程中,权益资产的价值会得到重估,优质银行股具有较高的股息率和利差优势,有利于耐心资本长期持有。”胡宇说。

  “从2022年年底以来,银行股基本维持了持续上升的走势,反映出长线资金对A股的影响力越来越大。未来,A股市场走出长牛的概率很大,银行股稳住指数,属于‘搭台’,后面其他板块轮番‘唱戏’。”胡宇说。

  分红总额创新高

  目前,42家A股上市银行中,已有36家发布2024年年报或业绩预告,Wind数据显示,36家上市银行合计实现营业收入55781亿元,同比增长0.05%;合计实现归属净利润21178亿元,同比增长2.38%。

  28家银行营业收入实现同比正增长,江浙区域优质城商行、农商行营业收入增速领先。其中,瑞丰银行营业收入同比增长15.29%,增速暂列第一;南京银行营收同比增长11.32%,常熟银行营收同比增长10.53%,杭州银行营收同比增长9.61%,江苏银行、宁波银行的营收增速均超过8%。

  另外,36家上市银行中,33家银行归属净利润同比正增长,其中,10家银行归属净利润达到两位数增长,浦发银行、青岛银行的归属净利润增长均超过20%。

  作为高股息代表,银行股的分红备受关注。目前有26家A股上市银行披露了2024年年报,Wind数据显示,26家上市银行2024年累计分红金额达到5855.58亿元,相比2023年增加141亿元。

  6家国有行是分红的主力,2024年度累计分红4206.34亿元。其中,工商银行连续多年领跑,年度分红金额达到1097.73亿元;建设银行分红亦超千亿,为1007.54亿元。另外,农业银行846.61亿元、中国银行713.6亿元、交通银行281.46亿元、邮储银行259.41亿元。

  8家股份行合计分红1396.07亿元,其中有6家的分红金额超过100亿元,招商银行、兴业银行分红金额靠前,分别为504.4亿元、220.21亿元。去年,宁波银行的分红金额同比增长了50%,年度现金分红比例最高的是招商银行。

  4月17日金融一线消息,中国银行今日公告称,公司于2025年4月17日收到上交所出具的《关于受理中国银行股份有限公司沪市主板上市公司发行证券申请的通知》。上交所依据相关规定对公司报送的沪市主板上市公司发行证券的募集说明书及相关申请文件进行了核对,认为该项申请文件齐备,符合法定形式,决定予以受理并依法进行审核。

  本次向特定对象发行A股股票事宜尚需上交所审核通过并获得中国证监会作出同意注册的决定后方可实施。

  安硕美国医疗服务提供商交易型开放式指数基金(IHF)周四下跌了6.5%,这将是其自2020年6月11日以来表现最差的一天。此次下跌由阿吉伦(Agilon)、联合健康集团(UNH)、艾利门特医疗(AlignmentHealthcare)、哈门那(Humana)、埃维朗斯(Elevance)和西维斯健康(CVS)领跌,这些公司股价均至少下跌了5%。

  恒大汽车的一举一动依旧引起市场关注。

  4月17日晚间,恒大汽车在港交所公告,公司接获联交所函件,该函件载列有关公司股份于联交所恢复买卖的以下指引:发布联交所证券上市规则要求的但尚未发布的所有财务业绩,并解决任何审计修改;证明公司遵守上市规则第13.24条;向市场告知所有重要信息,以便公司股东及投资者评估公司的状况。

  在恒大汽车获准恢复买卖之前,公司必须满足所有复牌指引、补救导致其暂停买卖的问题并全面遵守上市规则。公司有主要责任制定复牌行动计划。若公司情况有变,联交所可能修订复牌指引或对复牌指引作出补充。若公司股份连续停牌18个月,直至2026年9月30日,则联交所可取消恒大汽车的上市地位。

  就在4月1日,恒大汽车在港交所公告,间接全资附属公司恒大恒驰新能源汽车(上海)有限公司收到日期为2025年3月26日的决定书,上海市第三中级人民法院已指定一名管理人负责破产清算程序。由于公司自2025年2月3日公告以来,未能确保可提供资金以补充集团持续减少的可用资金的战略投资者/买家,因此无法确保其核数师及其他相关专业顾问开始现场及其他审计工作,故2024年度业绩公告将延迟刊发,直至另行通知。公司股份于2025年4月1日上午9时正起在联交所暂停买卖。

  有市场人士表示,此次延迟发布的原因尚未明确披露,市场对此高度关注,投资者期待能尽快了解公司的财务状况及经营成果。

  3月26日,港股市场上演了戏剧性一幕,恒大汽车股价午后突然直线拉升,盘中涨幅一度突破230%,最终收涨74.79%。恒大汽车股价飙升的导火索,很大程度上源于市场一则未经证实的“传闻”。有消息称,广汽集团旗下华望汽车(GH项目)拟收购恒大汽车南沙工厂,接盘其恒驰项目。随后,广汽集团发布澄清声明称,广汽集团关注到网络上有关于“华望汽车(GH项目)将收购恒大汽车南沙工厂”的不实传言。

  当日晚间,恒大汽车就股价及成交量不寻常波动发布公告,董事会确认,其并不知悉导致有关上升的任何原因或任何必须公布以避免公司股份出现虚假市场的资料。

  今年2月初,恒大汽车发布业务及运营更新公告。恒大汽车表示,尽管过去6个月一直在通过各种方式节省成本,但是仅能维持基本运营活动,鉴于资金水平较低而且不足,恒大汽车无法确保若干服务进行,包括但不限于审计师和相关专业顾问对该公司截至2024年末开展的现场审计工作。与此同时,恒大汽车表示,迄今未能成功找到能够帮助缓解流动资金问题并推进适当重组的战略投资者/买家,将继续努力寻找买家。

  欧洲央行周四宣布降息,这是一年来第七次降息,决策者希望提振因美国总统特朗普的贸易关税而进一步承压的欧元区经济。

  欧洲央行已将借贷成本降至2022年末以来的最低水平,新冠疫情后通胀急升的情况已经缓解,而贸易政策的快速变化强调了进一步担忧的理由。

  欧洲央行总裁拉加德在新闻发布会上称:“经济前景被异常的不确定性所笼罩。”此前,在法兰克福召开政策会议的决策者一致同意将央行的指标利率下调25个基点至2.25%。

  欧洲央行在声明中警告称,目前的形势可能令欧元区经济承压,但删除了称利率具有“限制性”的措辞,这一措辞通常被视为未来或进一步降息。

  拉加德表示,鉴于存在这么多悬而未决的问题,央行需要坚定地保持逐次会议逐次分析的决策模式。

  “面对我们所看到的情况,这将是一个保持灵活性的问题,”她称。“现在我们比以往任何时候都更需要依赖数据。”

  拉加德表示,在6月初的欧洲央行下一次会议前,形势不会完全明朗,届时特朗普针对欧盟关税的90天冻结期并未结束。特朗普给欧盟设定了20%的关税。

  鉴于最近的动荡,此前接受路透调查的绝大多数经济学家预计,周四欧洲央行将把存款利率下调至2.25%,即1.75%-2.25%区间的上端,央行认为这是“中性”利率区间,既不会促进也不会限制经济活动。

  关税冲击

  拉加德上月曾表示,欧洲央行估计,如果美国对欧盟进口商品加征25%的关税,而欧盟采取报复措施,欧元区经济增长可能会下降0.5个百分点,即预期扩张幅度的约一半。

  但这一估计被认为过于乐观,特别是在贸易战对投资者、企业和消费者信心造成严重破坏的情况下。

  “我不能告诉你我们是否处于不确定性的顶峰,”拉加德周四称。“我们必须为不可预测的事情做好准备。”

  欧元已经在市场波动中急升9%,而贸易加权欧元处于纪录高位,能源价格大幅下跌,经济增长正在放缓。

  拉加德也谈到了欧元急升的情况,称这可能会给通胀带来下行压力。

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