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  文章转载来源:深潮TechFlow

  链上资产最近又活跃了起来。

  随着Solana上诞生了百倍金狗RFC,Base链也在蠢蠢欲动。

  今天凌晨3点左右,拥有近90万关注者的Base官方X账号,发布了发布了一条帖子:“Baseisforeveryone”。帖子附带一张图片,展示了这个同名的slogan。

  更让人产生FOMO情绪的是,Base官方在这条评论区下直接回复“Coinedit”(发了个币),并链接到Zora平台上的meme币“Baseisforeveryone”。

  合约地址:

  0xD769d56f479E9E72a77bB1523e866A33098Feec5

  Base创始人Jesse也转发了这一帖子,“官方喊单”动作迅速点燃市场热情。

  作为Coinbase生态的重要一环,Base的每一次动作都备受瞩目。官方账号的背书被许多Degen视为“安全信号”,在当前市场金狗不多的情况下,这也给了大家更大上车的信心。

  拉盘1小时,Rug5分钟

  自帖子发出后,DEXSCREENER数据显示该同名Meme代币价格在一小时内逐步拉升,从0.0001美元飙升至0.012美元,涨幅高达120倍,市值从几万美元冲至2000万美元。

  然而,好景不长。

  这个官方明牌的Meme币,上演了经典的拉盘一小时,Rug5分钟的行情。

  早上4:30分左右,行情突然翻转,该代币市值在短短5分钟内从1400万跌至140万,跌幅一度达到90%。

  代币暴跌后,社区的情绪迅速从兴奋转向愤怒,X平台上的讨论量激增,许多用户将矛头指向Base官方,讽刺其“Baseisforeveryone”口号被重新解读为“对所有人开放,也包括Rug&Pull的人”。

  更为严重的是对Base官方形象的伤害。

  一部分用户直接指责Base官方“毁了品牌信任”,由base直接背书的币快速Rug,严重损害了公众形象;此外由于Coinbase受监管的公开交易身份,公众对其产生了高度负面的看法,导致JessePollak和Base领导层受到严厉批评。

  由于Base也一直走在合规的道路上,这种负向事件也被社区认为会招来更多的潜在监管审查。

  而在负面情绪之外,Baseisforeveryone并没有完全Rug。

  在暴跌之后,早上5点左右代币价格开始缓慢回升。截止发稿时,该代币的市值回升至800万美元左右。这一阶段的交易量依然活跃,24小时内总交易量高达2710万美元,买家数量从暴跌后的4000人左右增加到7300人,显示市场仍有投机者入场。

  回升的原因可能有两方面:一是投机者认为价格已触底,重新入场抄底;二是部分大户可能在低位回购,以稳定价格或进一步获利。

  谁的卖出导致暴跌?

  “Baseisforeveryone”代币在5分钟内的暴跌并非无迹可寻,链上数据揭示了暴跌背后的关键线索。

  分析师@dethective深入分析后,发现暴跌的触发点源于一个神秘地址的操作。

  神秘地址:

  0x099246ca997acf47ada682c9c60f9ed0954ad960

  该地址在Base官方发帖(4月16日21:13UTC)前仅1分钟购入了价值1.5ETH(约2400美元)的代币,随后在价格高点(0.012美元)持续抛售。

  帖子显示这笔抛售获利高达20万美元,利润率惊人。

  链上交易记录进一步证实,抛售者的部分利润被转移到一个名为“bandemic.base.eth”的地址。

  同时,我们也用GMGN看了看这个地址的概况,除了Baseisforeveryone大获全胜外,该地址也是其他Base上Meme币的狙击常客,同时被平台标记为聪明钱。

  过往战绩显示,该地址盈利范围通常在几百至几千美金区间。这一次在Baseisforeveryone拿到了超乎寻常的收益。

  但对大多数韭菜来说,一场Drama过后,如果认真参与并追涨杀跌,或许又面对着经典的“价格还在仓位没了”的困境。

  我们能从这次事件中学到什么?

  首先,摒弃官方高大上的认知。官方背书不等于安全,官方参与的meme币项目同样可能涉及内部交易和拉盘抛售。

  其次,在进行实操时,实时监控大户动向,避免成为接盘侠。例如关注代币的持仓集中度(Top10持有者占比)和异常交易量,可以提供一定的参考。

  从更深层次看,Base此次事件的争议根源,或许在于战略执行的失误。

  Base试图通过meme币推广吸引用户,增强生态活力,这种“文化上链”的思路本身并无问题。

  然而,执行过程中,Base忽视了社区对透明度和公平性的核心需求。

  Zora作为Base生态的重要合作伙伴,其TGE(代币生成事件)机制可能是事件背后的一大推手。社区的“Base-Zora联合拉盘”猜测虽未证实,但Base应公开与Zora的合作细节,消除疑虑。

  Base在推广代币时未充分披露风险,也未提前与社区沟通,导致信任危机。后续如果再解释实验性推广,就显得有些苍白了。

  最后,不是Baseisforeveryone,而是Riskisforeveryone。

  铭记风险,谨慎前行。

  4月17日化工ETF(516020)盘中

  超40亿主力资金狂买!无惧外需冲击,解码中国化工“攻守兼备”配置机会

  化工板块今日(4月17日)表现亮眼。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF(516020)开盘走高后持续红盘震荡,盘中场内价格最高涨0.7%,截至13:35,涨0.35%。

  成份股方面,多个细分板块表现喜人,截至13:35,齐翔腾达飙涨超6%,圣泉集团大涨超3%,中化国际、三棵树双双涨超2%,彤程新材、藏格矿业、中复神鹰等多股涨超1%。

  资金面上,今日化工板块大举吸金。Wind数据显示,截至13:35,基础化工板块获主力资金净流入超48亿元,净流入额在30个中信一级行业中高居第2

  消息面上,近期,美国关税政策导致全球资产价格出现了大幅波动。开源证券表示,特朗普的出发点在于推动制造业回流美国,但强制加征关税短期可能会让全球需求减弱。我国制造业基础夯实,加上国内内需强劲,短期内无惧海外需求减弱的扰动。

  此外,开源证券还指出,此前欧洲化工企业在成本高企、需求下滑的情况下陆续退出,而此次美国无差别征收关税下其他工业基础薄弱国家的制造业装置或也将退出,中国制造业在全球份额有望持续提升。从短期及中长期影响来看,短期出口需求或受冲击,看好内需相关标的;中长期看好油价回调后带来的化工周期新起点。

  从估值方面来看,Wind数据显示,截至昨日收盘,化工ETF(516020)标的指数细分化工指数市净率为1.85倍,位于近10年来4.5%分位点的低位,中长期配置性价比凸显。

  展望后市,浙商证券表示,在美国关税大幅提升背景下,出口压力增大,外需承压,预计高层或将继续加大经济刺激力度;在政策加持下,内需有望复苏,看好受益内需的磷肥、钾肥、民爆龙头;AI和芯片材料细分龙头等。

  湘财证券指出,美国本轮加征关税,预计对我国化工品直接出口的影响有限,或将通过下游制造环节间接影响化工产品需求。我国化工产业链一体化程度高,在全球范围内竞争优势显著,我国化工产业有望受益于高端产品国产化替代加速、内需景气提升、全球贸易格局重塑等发展机遇。

  如何把握化工板块反弹机遇?借道化工ETF(516020)布局效率或更高。公开资料显示,化工ETF(516020)跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数,全面覆盖化工各个细分领域。其中近5成仓位集中于大市值龙头股,包括万华化学、盐湖股份、恩捷股份、华鲁恒升、天赐材料、荣盛石化等,分享强者恒强投资机遇;其余5成仓位兼顾布局磷肥及磷化工、氟化工、氮肥、煤化工、钛白粉等细分领域龙头股,全面把握化工板块投资机会。场外投资者亦可通过化工ETF联接基金(A类012537/C类012538)布局化工细分领域龙头。

  注:需要特别提醒的是,近期市场波动可能较大,短期涨跌幅不预示未来表现,基金投资可能产生亏损。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资,高度注意仓位和风险管理。

  图片及数据来源:沪深交易所等,截至2025年4月17日。风险提示:化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布日期为2012.4.11,指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整。Wind数据显示,细分化工指数近5个完整年度收益率分别为2020年:51.68%;2021年:15.72%;2022年:-26.89%;2023年:-23.17%;2024年:-3.83%。标的指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险,适合适当性评级C3(平衡型)及以上投资者。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资须谨慎。

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