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核心观点

2024年,公司数据中心交换机收入同比增长120%,且量价齐升,预计主要是受益于互联网厂商在网络侧资本开支增加且高速率交换机占比提升,同时公司下半年毛利率已经企稳回升,持续推进管理改善和效率提升工作,费用管控有所成效,盈利能力提升。

展望2025/2026年,核心关注一是公司在互联网市场的份额变化以及毛利率情况;二是公司海外市场拓展进度,尤其是SMB市场;三是公司持续优化管理、销售体系带来的效率提升。

事件

公司发布2024年年报,2024年公司实现营业收入116.99亿元,同比增长1.36%;归母净利润5.74亿元,同比增长43.09%;扣非归母净利润5.30亿元,同比增长50.98%。

公司发布2024年度利润分配及资本公积转增股本预案,向全体股东每10股派发现金股利6.06元(含税),同时,以资本公积金向全体股东每10股转增4股。

公司发布2025年第一季度业绩预告,预计实现归母净利润0.98亿元-1.25亿元,同比增长4142%-5311%;预计实现扣非归母净利润0.855亿元-1.105亿元,同比扭亏为盈。

简评

1、控费取得成效,盈利能力提升。

公司2024年营业收入116.99亿元,同比增长1.36%;归母净利润5.74亿元,同比增长43.09%;扣非归母净利润5.30亿元,同比增长50.98%;毛利率38.62%,同比下滑0.33pct。单季度看,2024Q4公司营业收入33.22亿元,同比下降7.49%;归母净利润1.62亿元,同比增长32.54%;毛利率46.47%,同比提升7.01pct。

费用方面,2024年销售费用率15.51%,同比增加0.16pct;研发费用率16.12%,同比减少2.81pct;管理费用率5.50%,同比增加0.60pct;财务费用率-0.12%,同比减少0.28pct;合计期间费用率为37.01%,同比减少2.34pct。公司在数据中心交换机毛利率承压的背景下,保持了整体毛利率的平稳,并通过控费实现了净利润的增长。

25Q1,公司预计实现归母净利润0.98亿元-1.25亿元,同比增长4142%-5311%;预计实现扣非归母净利润0.855亿元-1.105亿元,同比扭亏为盈。公司业绩取得增长,一方面是在AI算力需求持续驱动下,互联网数据中心市场强势增长,公司面向互联网客户的数据中心交换机产品订单加速交付;另一方面是公司继续推进管理改善和效率提升工作,在费用管控层面有所成效。

2、数据中心交换机销售收入快速增长,200G/400G交换机市占率位列国内第一。

2024年公司数据中心交换机收入39.64亿元,同比增长120%;销售量8.71万台,同比增长86%;销售单价约4.55万/台,同比增长18%;毛利率为26.65%,同比下滑9.04pct。公司数据中心交换机销售量价齐升,预计与互联网客户加大采购且高速率交换机占比提升有关,同时由于互联网市场基本以白盒产品为主,毛利率较运营商、政企市场更低。此外,锐捷数字化智能工厂于2024年11月正式投入使用,数据中心交换机产能大幅提升,2024年数据中心交换机产能达到15万台,去年同期为5.1万台。

根据IDC数据,锐捷网络2024年交换机收入8.73亿美金,同比增长19.03%,在中国交换机市场份额为14.34%,同比提升1.83pct。200G/400G交换机收入为4.29亿美金,同比增长111.37%,占国内份额为40%,市场占有率第一,预计与公司在互联网市场份额较高有关。

3、海外收入快速增长,且毛利率高于国内。

公司SMB国际业务开展“深耕大国、渠道下沉”的战略转型,加大了英国、西班牙、南非、沙特等12个重点国家的市场开拓力度,销售渠道数量大幅增加。公司创新产品方案进入100多个国家和地区,较2024年增加20余个国家和地区,海外合作伙伴数量由1600家增长到2600余家。2021-2023年,公司海外业务收入复合增长率达40.91%。2024年,公司海外收入18.69亿元,同比增长52.72%,毛利率为46.31%,同比提升2.93pct。

4、盈利预测与投资建议。

2024年,公司数据中心交换机收入同比增长120%,且量价齐升,预计主要是受益于互联网厂商在网络侧资本开支增加且高速率交换机占比提升,同时公司下半年毛利率已经企稳回升,持续推进管理改善和效率提升工作,费用管控有所成效,盈利能力提升。展望2025/2026年,核心关注一是公司在互联网市场的份额变化以及毛利率情况;二是公司海外市场拓展进度,尤其是SMB市场;三是公司持续优化管理、销售体系带来的效率提升。预计公司2025-2027年实现归母净利润7.64亿元、9.42亿元、11.13亿元,对应PE51X、42X、35X,维持“增持”评级。

风险分析

博通新一代交换芯片TH5供应紧缺,部分时间段存在缺货涨价风险;国内互联网厂商自研交换机,或引入其他代工厂,影响公司份额;行业竞争加剧,毛利率下滑;宏观经济承压,政府及中小企业IT开支持续收缩,公司SMB市场恢复不及预期;华为GPU供不应求,在销售时通过整体解决方案将交换机打包销售,影响其他公司在AI市场中的份额;客户需求变化、产品结构、原材料价格等变化导致毛利率下降;人才紧缺、人才流失、用工成本上升;客户采购周期导致的季节性亏损;公司对税收优惠依赖程度较高。

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