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  美国财政部发行440亿美元7年期国债中标收益率4.123%,美东时间下午1点投标截止时的发行前交易水平为4.121%。不过中标收益率仍创出去年9月以来最低。在投标截止前的国债涨势推动收益率当日下跌大约8个基点;投标结果公布后国债维持上涨,中期债券收益率保持在日内低点附近,收益率差大多扩大。

  一级交易商获配15.3%,为5月份以来最高;间接投标人获配比例下降至59.3%;直接投标人获配25.4%。

  投标倍数2.55倍,相比之下前六次招标的平均投标倍数为2.67倍。

  美国蒸馏酒委员会周四发布的《美国烈酒出口报告》显示,美国烈酒出口在2024年达到创纪录的24亿美元,这在很大程度上是由关税担忧和持续的全球贸易争端推动的。

  美国蒸馏酒委员会主席兼首席执行官克里斯・斯旺格(ChrisSwonger)表示:“美国烈酒出口在2024年创下新高。不幸的是,与我们行业无关的持续贸易争端造成了不确定性,使许多美国酿酒商持观望态度,限制了销售增长。”

  美国对欧盟烈酒出口激增39%,主要源于企业担忧欧盟可能于2025年重启50%的美国威士忌进口关税(该关税2022年暂停)。

  今年3月,特朗普威胁要对法国香槟和其他欧盟烈酒征收200%的关税,这导致欧洲各国领导人,特别是来自爱尔兰、法国和意大利的领导人,呼吁不要把恢复对波本威士忌(美国本土威士忌)的关税作为报复措施。

  该报告发现,大约50%的美国烈酒出口到欧盟,总计12亿美元,使欧盟成为其最大的出口市场。然而,对世界其他地区的出口下降了近10%,这反映出酒类行业市场整体疲软。

  美国WTI原油周四收高。投资者正权衡石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)可能增产与美国白宫矛盾关税信号、美伊核谈判等多重因素。

  纽约商品交易所6月交割的西得州中质原油(WTI)收涨0.52美元,涨幅超过0.83%,收于每桶62.79美元。

  当前油价已收复周三约半数跌幅——此前媒体报道多个OPEC+成员国建议在6月再度加速增产,导致油价昨日油价收跌近2%。

  占全球产量2%的哈萨克斯坦表示将把国家利益置于OPEC+配额之上。

  该国过去一年屡次超产,PVM分析师塔马斯·瓦尔加指出:“这种抗命行为不仅预示石油供需平衡趋松,更意味着哈萨克斯坦实质上已退出OPEC+体系,尽管名义上仍属该联盟。”

  OPEC+内部历来存在配额纠纷,2023年安哥拉就因此退出。

  ING分析师警告:“成员国进一步分歧构成明确下行风险,可能引发价格战。”

  美伊本周将举行第三轮核协议谈判,市场关注制裁解除可能带来的伊朗原油回归。但美国周二对伊朗能源领域实施新制裁,伊朗外交部斥责美方“缺乏对话诚意”。

  德意志银行预计美元未来几年将陷入结构性下行趋势并兑欧元跌至十多年来的最低水平。

  指关税导致投资者抛售美国资产德银料美元陷入结构性跌势

  策略师GeorgeSaravelos和TimBaker表示,美国关税的负面影响加上德国的财政刺激以及对华盛顿在世界舞台上角色的重估将导致投资者抛售美国资产并拖累美元走低。

  欧洲央行首席经济学家:贸易冲击不太可能引发衰退

  欧洲央行首席经济学家PhilipLane表示,尽管美国关税可能会抑制经济增长,但由20个成员国组成的欧元区拥有其他贸易伙伴,不会自动陷入经济下行。

  英国央行行长称对美元失去储备货币地位的担忧“过头”

  英国央行行长贝利称对美元失去储备货币地位的担忧“过头”了。

  美联储理事Waller:如果高关税导致失业增加将支持下调利率

  美联储理事ChristopherWaller表示,如果特朗普政府重新实施高额关税,企业可能会开始裁员,届时他将支持降息以保护就业市场。

  华尔街大多头“缴械投降”因关税影响下调标普500指数目标。

  BankimChadha领导的德意志银行策略师团队将年底标普500指数目标下调12%,至6150点。

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