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从头啪到尾全肉的黄漫 - 用户需警惕的潜在隐患与安全建议
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从头啪到尾全肉的黄漫 - 用户需警惕的潜在隐患与安全建议

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  随着唐纳德・特朗普总统在社交媒体上加大对杰罗姆・鲍威尔的批评力度,美国资产的抛售潮加剧。出于对美联储未来独立性的担忧,美国股票市场、美元以及较长期美国国债纷纷下跌。

  特朗普关于关税谈判正在取得进展的保证,对于阻止市场暴跌几乎没有起到作用。标准普尔500指数和其他主要股指均下跌近3%,而美元指数则跌至15个月来的低点。基准10年期美国国债价格下跌,收益率接近4.4%。随着投资者撤离美国证券,避险资产价格攀升。黄金价格跃升至每盎司3400美元以上的又一历史新高,而瑞士法郎兑美元汇率上涨超过1%。

  这种疲软态势也蔓延到了美国信贷市场。在衍生品市场,一篮子高评级信贷证券的违约保护成本升至一周多以来的最高水平。周一,有三家投资级公司考虑发行债券,但在看到市场背景后,其中两家决定暂停发行,只有美国运通公司决定继续推进债券发售。

  美国总统在“真相社交”平台上升温了对美联储主席的攻击,坚称“实际上”不存在通货膨胀,现在是时候进行“先发制人的降息”了。美联储青睐的通胀指标的最新读数仍高于央行设定的目标,下周将公布新的数据。

  美国国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特上周五表示,特朗普正在研究他是否有权解雇鲍威尔。这些言论引发了新的质疑,即随着总统越来越多地以严厉措辞表达对美联储未能更快降息的不满,美联储能否维持其长期以来的独立性。

  “如果鲍威尔被解雇,最初的反应将是给金融市场注入巨大的波动性,而且可能会出现我们所能想象到的最剧烈的抛售美国资产的情况,”激石集团(Pepperstone)的高级研究策略师迈克尔・布朗表示。“不仅美联储的独立性显然受到威胁,而且去美元化以及美国霸权地位动摇的可能性也越来越现实。”

  这种担忧也得到了对冲基金精英们的呼应。据在场人士透露,埃利奥特管理公司(ElliottInvestmentManagement)的创始人保罗・辛格最近在阿布扎比的一次私人活动中警告称,美元可能会失去其储备货币地位。

  华侨银行(Oversea-ChineseBankingCorp)的货币策略师克里斯托弗・黄表示,指责美联储存在将美国货币政策政治化的风险,而这会让市场深感不安。

  “坦率地说,解雇鲍威尔让人难以相信,”黄说。“如果美联储的信誉受到质疑,可能会严重削弱人们对美元的信心。”

  芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯汀・古尔斯比警告不要试图削弱央行的独立性。“经济学家们几乎一致认为,货币政策不受政治干预——美联储或任何一家央行能够独立履行其职责——这一点非常重要,”古尔斯比周日在哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)的《面对全国》节目中表示。

  法律学者表示,总统不能轻易解雇美联储主席,而鲍威尔此前也表示,如果特朗普要求他辞职,他不会照做。

  贸易战

  在人们担心未来可能出现金融衰退的背景下,特朗普的关税攻势也继续给市场带来压力。

  “全球经济正受到美国贸易战的冲击,我们认为这将引发足够大的经济冲击,对美国及全球经济扩张构成威胁,”摩根大通首席经济学家布鲁斯・卡斯曼写道。“我们在指出全球经济衰退风险加剧的同时,也强调这种结果不太可能立即出现。”

  彭博美元现货指数周一下跌0.7%。十国集团(G10)的所有货币兑美元汇率均上涨。日元的升值打压了日本股票市场指数,日经225指数下跌1.3%。

  日元、欧元和瑞士法郎汇率上涨。美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格下跌超过2%,至每桶64美元以下。欧洲股票市场因公共假期大多休市。

  德意志银行(DeutscheBankAG)表示,投资者正在将投资从美国转出。该银行中国宏观及全球新兴市场销售主管陶莉莉安表示,欧洲优质债券、日本国债和黄金可能成为投资者替代美国国债的潜在选择。

  特斯拉公司股价下跌7.1%。韦德布什证券(WedbushSecurities)分析师丹・艾夫斯表示,该公司在准备于周二公布财报之际面临“红色警戒”时刻,埃隆・马斯克应该从他在政府效率部门的工作中抽身,专注于特斯拉业务。

  市场主要走势如下:

  股票市场

  纽约时间下午12:01,标准普尔500指数下跌2.9%

  纳斯达克100指数下跌3%

  道琼斯工业平均指数下跌2.8%

  明晟全球指数下跌1.9%

  货币

  彭博美元现货指数下跌0.7%

  欧元上涨1%,至1欧元兑1.1504美元

  英镑上涨0.6%,至1英镑兑1.3381美元

  日元上涨0.9%,至140.83日元兑1美元

  加密货币

  比特币上涨3.5%,至88086.06美元

  以太币上涨2.1%,至1622.76美元

  债券

  10年期美国国债收益率上升4个基点,至4.37%

  德国10年期国债收益率基本持平,为2.47%

  英国10年期国债收益率基本持平,为4.57%

  大宗商品

  美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格下跌2.8%,至每桶62.88美元

  现货黄金价格上涨2.9%,至每盎司3423.89美元

  美国总统特朗普将在白宫与主要零售商会面,以讨论全面关税对其业务的影响。

  知情人士透露,出席周一会议的包括沃尔玛、家得宝、劳氏和塔吉特等公司的代表。这场讨论正值特朗普对大部分贸易伙伴暂停实施“对等”关税90天之际。各国领导人及企业高管正借此机会争取关税减免。

  家得宝表示将与“两边的”政府合作,并将继续与各级政府领导人会面。塔吉特未立即置评。劳氏没有回复置评请求。沃尔玛拒绝置评。

  这些关税政策令消费者担心价格上涨,也使得依赖海外进货的企业感到焦虑。一些公司已经警告称,随着进口关税落地,未来几个月业务可能放缓。

  除众多寻求降低关税的外国官员外,特朗普还表示愿意与企业高管就税率问题进行磋商。

  “我们还将与公司交谈。你知道,你必须得表现出一定的灵活性。不应该太过死板,”特朗普4月13日对记者表示。

  随着人们越来越担心贸易战旷日持久将拖累能源需求,能源股与原油价格一道下跌;

  标普500能源指数下跌3.3%,23个成份股全线走低;

  埃克森美孚 (-2.2%), 雪佛龙 (-3.7%), Williams (-4.7%);

  跌幅最大的个股包括EQT (-6.7%), TargaResources (-6.7%), ONEOK (-5.9%), KinderMorgan (-5.6%);

  标普/多伦多证交所综合指数的能源分类指数下跌1.8%,42支股票中有41支下跌;

  跌幅较大的个股包括 Cameco (-5%), EnergyFuels (-10%), DenisonMines (-7.7%), NexGenEnergy (-7.1%);

  周一市场弥漫着避险情绪,因为美联储独立性的不确定性增加,先前唐纳德·特朗普公开指责美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。

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