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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  华西证券发布研报称,据年报显示,H&H国际控股(01112)目标于25年上半年完结前完成“国标”过渡,这将为25年全年整体婴配粉销售额恢复增长奠定基础,公司期望25年收入重拾升轨。根据公司年报,该行预测25-26年收入由138.2/149.9亿元下调至137.7/146.6亿元,新增27年收入154.8亿元;归母净利由6.6/8.0亿元下调至5.4/6.6亿元,新增27年归母净利7.6亿元;EPS由1.02/1.24元下调至0.84/1.02元,新增27年EPS为1.18元。2025年04月14日收盘价HKD9.55元对应P/E分别为10/9/7倍,维持“买入”评级。

  事件:2024年公司实现营收130.52亿元,同比-6.3%;归母净利润-0.54亿元,同比-109.2%;经调整可比纯利5.41亿元,同比-30.5%。24H2公司实现营收63.10亿元,同比-9.7%;归母净利润-3.6亿元,同比-1272.1%;经调整可比纯利1.94亿元,同比-26.8%。

  华西证券主要观点如下:

  婴配粉业务下滑,营养补充品仍为核心增长动力

  按产品分部来看,24FY公司营养补充品/婴幼儿配方奶粉/其他实现收入分别为88.30/33.32/8.89亿元,同比+4.6%/-24.2%/-20.2%;24H2公司营养补充品/婴幼儿配方奶粉/其他实现收入分别为44.06/15.34/0.42亿元,同比+4.3%/-29.8%/-22.0%。公司婴配粉业务下滑,主因完成新国标过渡所需时间较预期长所致。据公司公告显示,公司超高端婴配粉的市场份额13.3%,同比+0.9pct;公司营养补充品中的Swisse

  VHMS以及宠物补充品均录得双位数增长,高利润营养补充品仍为公司核心增长动力,占总收入比例已由14年的9.0%增至67.7%。

  按业务分部来看,24FY公司ANC/BNC/PNC收入分别为66.96/43.82/19.73亿元,同比+8.8%/-25.8%/+4.4%;24H2公司ANC/BNC/PNC收入分别为34.20/19.50/9.88亿元,同比+6.6%/-30.2%/+4.3%。ANC业务收入保持增长势头,主因消费者对保健品的强劲需求,公司成功推出创新产品类别及推进渠道开发,其中Swisse

  Plus+于24年为中国内地ANC的收入带来双位数贡献,按年上升19.6%;Swisse软糖实现高双位数增长,以17.2%的市场份额位居澳洲第二;Swisse维持整个澳洲VHMS市场榜首的地位。此外,PNC业务中宠物补充品业务增长15.2%,为营养补充品品类增速第一。

  按地理位置来看,24FY公司在中国内地/澳新/北美/其他地区分别收入为86.85/20.13/16.22/7.32亿元,同比-12.9%/+11.6%/+7.1%/+10.4%;其中24H2公司在中国内地/澳新/北美/其他地区收入分别为41.44/10.37/8.06/3.73亿元,同比-15.4%/+7.5%/+5.9%/+15.8%。中国内地下降主因BNC与PNC分部收入下降所致。除中国内地外,其他地区均保持增长,并继续于亚洲扩张市场保持强劲增长势头。

  产品优化及奶粉去库存下毛利率提升,全年利润由盈转亏

  毛利端来看,24FY/24H2公司毛利率分别为60.6%/60.4%,同比+1.1%/+2.4%,主因库存拨备减少以及产品组合的有利变动所致。据年报显示,除由于若干市场的产品组合变动及来自新兴市场的收入比例上升带来的ANC业务毛利率下降外,其他两个分部的毛利率都有所提升。公司首次披露宠物补充品的毛利率为61.9%,同比+2.0pct。该行预计未来随着多项有效供应链优化措施落地,叠加新国标过渡完成,毛利率有望持续提高。

  费用端来看,24FY/24H2公司销售费用率分别为41.3%/44.5%,同比+2.5/+3.2pct,主因BNC分部销售额下滑较多导致费用规模效应弱化;24FY/24H2公司管理费用率分别为6.0%/5.9%,同比-0.1/-0.4pct,反映公司营运效率提升及成本管理工作奏效;24FY公司研发费用率由1.5%上升至1.9%,反映了公司持续致力投资产品创新。

  利润端来看,24FY/24H2公司归母净利率分别为-0.4%/-5.7%,同比-4.6/-5.3pct,全年利润首次由盈转亏;24FY/24H2公司经调整可比EBITDA利润率分别为15.0%/12.9%,同比-0.9/-0.1pct;24FY/24H2公司经调整可比纯利率分别为4.1%/3.1%,同比-1.5/-0.7pct,主因是BNC业务下滑和财务成本(汇兑亏损和融资成本)增加。

  持续优化资本结构,期望25年收入重拾升轨

  据年报显示,24年公司通过多渠道融资优化资本结构,包括完成人民币双边贷款、发行5亿元人民币债券、提升低成本人民币债务占比等措施。截至24年末,公司库存周转天数从159天减少到150天,将集团调整后EBITDA近90%转化为税前运营现金流,现金储备达16亿元。25年1月,公司主动以更低利率发行3.5年期美元优先票据,进一步延长债务期限、压降融资成本。公司未来将继续推进去杠杆化,并强化应对汇率波动及高利率环境的能力。公司将继续履行承诺,支付24年每股0.35港元股息,占调整后净利润的38%,在保持稳定的分红记录和为去杠杆化保留流动性之间取得了良好的平衡。

  风险提示

  新生儿人口数量持续下降风险、食品安全问题、婴配粉新国标过渡时间不及预期。

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