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  来源:证券之星

  市场全天低开后震荡反弹,三大指数涨跌不一,沪指录得8连涨。

  盘面上,大消费股持续活跃,食品、零售、旅游、电商等多个方向走强,安记食品等多股涨停。地产股迎来反弹,南都物业等涨停。化工股表一度冲高,环氧丙烷方向领涨,红宝丽等涨停。

  截至收盘,沪指涨0.13%,深成指跌0.16%,创业板指涨0.09%。热点围绕内需和自主可控两个方向展开,个股涨多跌少,全市场超3100只个股上涨。值得注意的是,沪深两市今日成交额9995亿,较上个交易日缩量1124亿,成交额年内第三次跌破万亿。

  对于成交缩量问题,分析人士认为,极端缩量常预示市场进入底部区域,反转需依赖政策或盈利改善信号。当前市场处于“弱现实与强预期博弈”的僵局,若4月财报季验证经济复苏成色或政策加码,则地量后仍有望开启修复行情。

  01. “电风扇”行情再现

  今日,A股市场震荡反弹,板块轮动再度加速。

  首先,“地产链”明显走强。房地产板块指数盘中一度放量大涨逾4%,创近1个月来新高;装修建材、工程咨询等上下游板块也同步走高。

  消息面上,国家统计局最新数据显示,3月住房市场成交活跃度提升,70城房价环比上涨城市个数明显增加,其中新房和二手房价环比上涨城市分别较2月增加6个和7个。同时,一线城市新房价格已经连续4个月环比上涨,二手房价环比由降转涨。此外,各地房地产新政仍在不断推出。

  东兴证券认为,当前政策方向明确,中央持续表露出维护房地产市场企稳回升的意愿,后续政策将会持续积极,推进政策落地的力度将会进一步加强。当前地产板块在供需两端都在迎来更加积极、持续的政策拉动,建议持续关注地产板块的投资机会。

  其次,“自主可控”方向迎来修复。芯片概念股集体上攻,光刻机方向领涨,MCU芯片、汽车芯片、存储芯片、先进封装等细分领域也纷纷发力上扬。

  全球贸易格局变化之下,国内半导体产业自主可控要求再次提升,且进程有望加速推进。中信证券表示,中国半导体行业的内需市场和自主可控成为明确的发展方向。美方在先进技术领域的“卡脖子”不会改变中国半导体行业长期高端化的发展方向,反而会加快推进国内产业自立自强。

  此外,大消费方向一度冲高,酒店旅游、零售、食品等细分方向涨幅居前,但午后涨幅略有回落。不过短期而言,机构预计大消费方向仍是市场核心主线,在市场加剧波动、不确定性提升背景下,“低预期低估值”+“消费韧性特征下的企稳趋势”将提升消费配置的资金偏好。

  整体而言,当前市场风格更偏向于防守,静待变盘信号的出现。同时,今日个股普涨的背景下,量能不增反减,也导致热点方向冲高后承接不足出现回落。分析人士预计,在增量资金不足的情况下,后市还是以震荡轮动为主,应对上仍可寻找各题材中的分歧低吸机会。

  02. QFII最新持仓曝光(名单)

  截至4月16日,在已披露上市公司一季报的上市公司中,有11只股票的前十大流通股股东名单出现了QFII身影,其中包括摩根士丹利、阿布达比投资局、高盛、摩根大通等全球资管巨头。

  具体来看,截至今年一季度末,QFII分别持有1.63亿股紫金矿业、1.54亿股中国西电。此外,QFII持有方正电机(维权)、*ST云网、东方锆业、英威腾的数量也较高,分别为1556万股、986.31万股、633.54万股、532.64万股。宇环数控、远方信息、新力金融、晓鸣股份获QFII持仓也均在200万股以上,宝光股份获持仓98.93万股。

  值得注意的是,上述11只个股中,有一部分获得了多家外资机构抱团持有。

  以方正电机为例,截至一季度末,公司前十大流通股股东名单中有瑞银、高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利四家QFII,且皆为今年一季度新进。四家机构持有方正电机的数量分别为604.6万股、361万股、298.4万股、292万股。

  晓鸣股份也同时被三家QFII“青睐”。截至今年一季度末,摩根士丹利、瑞银和高盛分别持有99.26万股、74万股、64.88万股份。其中,瑞银和高盛一季度新进前十大流通股股东名单,摩根士丹利相较于去年年底增持了49.1万股。

  东方锆业同样被瑞银、阿布达比投资和摩根士丹利三家QFII抱团持有,持股数量分别为260万股、210万股、163.3万股,三家机构均为今年一季度新进前十大流通股股东名单。

  此外,远方信息、宇环数控等个股也获得多家外资机构抱团持有。

  03. 外资:看好A股四大主线

  站在当前时点,QFII依然大举增持A股公司,侧面反应出外资对A股的看好。多家外资机构表示,尽管受外部因素影响,A股近期经历了剧烈波动,但多个细分领域均存在具有吸引力的投资机会。

  联博基金副总经理、投资总监朱良表示:“中国资本市场历来主要由内部因素驱动,因此成为境外投资者分散风险的较好标的。整体来看,当前中国市场的估值比较低,还有很多现金流健康的优质企业,这些因素让中国股票市场很有吸引力。”

  汇丰新兴市场研究全球主管MuratUlgen也表示:“投资者对中国市场的增长前景持乐观态度。这不仅反映出市场对中国提振经济活动的信心,也体现了科技板块投资吸引力的提升所带来的积极影响,以及市场对更多经济刺激政策的期待。”

  具体配置上,贝莱德卓越远航混合基金经理毕凯表示,从配置方向来看,看好四条主线的投资机会。

  第一是政策刺激下的内需改善方向,主要包括家用电器、食品饮料、纺织服装、互联网、轻工制造、地产、机械设备等行业;第二是科技强国方向,主要包括电子、通信、传媒、半导体、机械设备等行业;第三是供给扩张缓和、供需再平衡方向,主要包括农林牧渔、医药生物、建筑材料等行业;第四是红利板块,主要包括通信、公用事业、石油石化等行业。

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