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4月16日,Moneta亿汇表示,尽管WTI油价仅略高于每桶60美元,美国页岩油气行业的韧性正面临严峻考验。然而,行业内部人士和分析师认为,除非贸易争端对经济造成长期损害,否则美国页岩油气产量可能会保持稳定甚至反弹。这一前景在很大程度上取决于美中贸易争端的持续时间。

  Moneta亿汇认为,布伦特原油价格已跌破每桶65美元,WTI油价仅略高于60美元。尽管如此,美国能源部长克里斯·赖特(ChrisWright)在接受彭博社采访时表示,市场对全球经济的担忧被夸大了。他强调,尽管市场担心经济增长,但他认为这种担忧是“错误的”。

  Moneta亿汇进一步分析,尽管股票市场和大宗商品市场出现了恐慌性抛售,但从长期来看,石油需求的前景仍然光明。然而,市场的默认反应往往是短期的恐慌,而非长期的理性分析。因此,美国石油行业的前景,尤其是产量的增减,实际上取决于贸易关税的持续时间,尤其是针对认为的关税。

  Moneta亿汇提到,如果WTI油价跌破60美元并迅速反弹,美国的勘探与生产(E&P)企业可能不会大幅削减资本支出或推迟生产。然而,如果油价持续低于60美元达两个季度,企业可能会开始削减资本支出并推迟生产。尽管如此,只要油价保持在60美元左右,美国石油产量仍可能增长,或者在58至60美元之间保持稳定,但如果油价降至55美元以下,产量可能会开始下降。

  Moneta亿汇还认为,尽管赖特部长对美国能源生产的增长持乐观态度,但行业内部对增长前景的看法并不一致。根据最新的达拉斯联邦能源调查,许多生产商对近期前景并不乐观。在运营成本方面,生产商可以在整个油气领域继续提高产量,成本范围在鹰福特地区的每桶26美元到二叠纪地区的每桶45美元之间。然而,在盈利能力方面,情况则大不相同,钻探一口油井的盈利油价范围从每桶61美元开始,到70美元结束。

  Moneta亿汇总结认为,如果贸易争端对油价的冲击仅持续一两个月,行业将能够迅速反弹,而此次抛售最终只会成为一段不愉快的记忆。然而,如果影响持续时间更长,产量增长的前景将变得黯淡。尽管如此,即使最坏的情况出现,石油行业也不会遭受不可挽回的损失。产量可能会下降,但随着经济的复苏,产量也将随之回升。最终,如果华盛顿和北京之间的关税争端能够早日结束,美国石油生产商可能只需要担心特朗普去年向选民承诺的低能源价格。

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