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  文丨尚扬 

  近期,创新药板块相对表现强势,4月8日以来,沪指、恒生科技指数分别上涨5.79%、8.97%,同期,A股创新药板块上涨8.25%,恒生创新药指数上涨12.5%。随着北京、深圳相继出台关于创新药械的激励政策,聚焦创新药和创新器械产业发展全链条,业内人士认为,回调恰是机会,创新药这条投资主线有望持续受益。

  股价不断上涨

  继4月14日报收涨停后,4月15日,东诚药业再度大涨,盘中涨幅一度超过9%。除了板块整体走势强劲,知名私募基金经理冯柳的继续重仓或也是加持的因素之一。

  公司2024年年报显示,由冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金继续以2150万股的持仓位居公司第五大股东,但相较三季度末的持仓,冯柳也对其进行了一定幅度的减持,持股数减少了1000万股。

  目前,冯柳2024年四季度末重仓股已有6家浮出水面,其中3家被增持、2家被减持、1家持股较上一报告期末持平(见表1)。虽然东诚药业被实施了减持操作,但却是其目前公开重仓股中除瑞丰新材外年内表现第二好的标的。

  3月份以来,《趋势大时代》主讲人彭祖即多次在交流会上明确表达了对创新药板块的看好。例如,3月17日,他建议重点关注已经全球化,同时最好未来一年已经开始盈利的创新药公司;3月30日表示,随着全球资本重新定价中国药企创新能力+政策全力支持+低估值+机构持仓历史最低+市场风险偏好回升+老龄化,医药会是下一个迎来“DeepSeek时刻”的板块,现在的创新药就好比2005年的房地产;4月2日表示,国产创新药凭借世界一流的质量和相对更低的价格,正在快速抢占欧美日Biotech的生态位,其背后是中国的工程师红利以及人口红利带来的临床资源红利。当前,中国第一批Biotech正在进入集体扭亏为盈的关键期,2025年-2026年,中国创新药龙头正集体进入扭亏为盈区间,转正后利润增速将进入非线性阶段。

  二级市场中,一众创新药公司也是不负众望,4月7日的关税调整风波后,A股创新药公司科兴制药已迅速大涨近50%。一品红、悦康药业等,港股的康方生物、科伦博泰生物-B、乐普生物-B、三生制药等,阶段涨幅同样靠前。

  虽然近日板块略有调整,但彭祖认为,A股、港股创新药回调恰是机会,原因在于,中国创新药进口逆差较大,西成药和生化药进口金额远大于出口金额;中国创新药出海多数采用BD(BusinessDevelopment,商务合作,即将药物的海外开发权益授权给国外药企)、NewCo(设立海外新公司,授权管线并获得股权)等方式出海,其本质是IP(IntellectualProperty)的交易、并不涉及具体药品的制造出口,关税波动风险小。那么,哪些个股接下来会取得超额收益呢?读者朋友们可以扫描下图二维码免费观看视频。

  业绩逐季向好

  当前,不少创新药公司已经完成了2024年年报的披露,增长势头不俗,且多家公司极具投资点,完整名单扫描二维码即可免费领取(见表2)。如恒瑞医药,公司全年实现营业收279.85亿元,同比增长22.63%;实现归母净利润63.37亿元,同比增长47.28%。其中,创新药销售收入占公司总销售收入(不含对外许可收入)一半左右,达138.92亿元(含税,不含对外许可收入),同比增长30.60%。

  同时,恒瑞医药表示,报告期内,公司收到德国MerckHealthcare1.6亿欧元对外许可首付款以及美国KaileraTherapeutics1.0亿美元对外许可首付款等许可合作对价,确认为收入,利润增加较多。另外,恒瑞医药还向股东们派发了现金红包,拟每10股派发现金红利约2元(含税),共计派发现金红利约13亿元。

  A/H股同时上市的荣昌生物,公司全年实现营业收入17.17亿元,较2023年的10.83亿元同比大幅增长58.54%,展现出强劲的发展势头。值得关注的是,在营收快速增长的同时,公司综合毛利率提升至80.36%,较上年同期提高近3个百分点,年度亏损也同比收窄至14.68亿元,经营质量持续改善。

  商业化突飞猛进、盈利能力持续增强的背后,是公司两大核心产品泰它西普(RC18,商品名:泰爱)和维迪西妥单抗(RC48,商品名:爱地希)的强势销售表现。且值得期待的是,随着两大核心产品纳入最新医保目录,以及在更多适应证上的临床试验陆续完成,公司商业化前景持续向好。荣昌生物表示,其他在研产品的开发进度加快等,多适应证以及多产品进入商业化阶段将进一步改善公司财务状况,为公司尽快实现扭亏为盈创造条件。

  政策持续加持

  政策面,上周,北京、深圳均发布了创新药械支持政策。4月7日,北京市医疗保障局等九部门印发《北京市支持创新医药高质量发展若干措施(2025年)》;深圳市发展和改革委员会、深圳市卫生健康委员会等部门印发《深圳市全链条支持医药和医疗器械发展若干措施》。

  北京市已连续两年发布支持创新医药高质量发展措施,深化创新药械研、产、审、用全链条政策支持。其中,新版支持政策持续推动创新医药临床使用,提出国家医保谈判药品直接纳入全市定点医疗机构药品目录,鼓励1类创新药获批上市后1个月内快速挂网,北京市医疗机构率先使用并给予重点支持,可备案不计入基本医保自费率指标。扩大支付途径,鼓励商业保险将创新药目录纳入保障责任范围,推进商业保险和基本医保“一站式”结算。同时,加强创新医药投融资支持,将构建500亿元规模医药健康产业基金。加强企业上市融资服务,2025年重点储备和服务不少于10家本市拟上市医药企业。

  深圳市出台《若干措施》聚焦研发创新、人工智能应用、临床试验、注册审批、生产制造、推广应用、企业出海、人才与金融赋能、投资促进9大方面。聚力提高基础研究支持力度、共性关键核心技术攻关等,激发创新策源活力赋能全产业链发展。同时推动产业国际化发展,支持初创药械企业通过跨境技术许可交易、跨境研发合作等方式出海发展,对于药械企业向海外公司授权产品海外研发销售权益的,按照企业获得首付款金额的5%予以资金奖励,最高不超过1000万元。

  随着政策的持续支持,创新药板块也有望持续受益。

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