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  4月21日电(张乃月)美东时间4月20日,美元指数跌破99关口,为2022年4月以来首次。

  近段时间,美国贸易政策反复变动,扰动市场并打击投资者信心,有美国媒体分析称,美元长期以来的“避风港”地位受到冲击。

  风暴中的“避风港”

  《纽约时报》近期分析称,美元持续下跌,可能表明投资者开始避开长期以来是全球金融市场“避风港”的美元。

  美媒称,投资者们原本预测,随着关税政策实施,美元会升值。因为传统观念认为,关税会抑制美国人购买进口商品,进而减少对外国货币的需求。美国财政部长贝森特曾提出,美元的升值幅度将大到足以抵消通货膨胀上升的影响。

  然而,美政府宣布的关税规模远超预期,引发剧烈动荡。最近几周出现多个投资者抛售美元的交易日。

  《华尔街日报》援引分析指出,美元作为可靠“避风港”的地位已经受损。麦格理集团的金融市场经济学家维兹曼表示,此轮美国政策巨变不仅威胁到美元在市场承压时期的避险地位,还可能削弱美元作为事实上的全球货币的地位。这可能会引发一系列负面后果,包括美国政府和消费者的借款成本上升。

  美联储面对“双重压力”

  周一(4月21日)亚洲早盘时段,与美元指数一同下跌的还有美股期货指数。彭博社认为,美国总统近期对美联储的批评令投资者紧张。

  美联储主席鲍威尔日前发表讲话时称,美国政府已宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,其带来的经济影响同样可能超出预期,美联储在制定货币政策时面临棘手局面。因此,美联储在决定是否调整利率前将采取“观望”策略。随后,特朗普接连敦促美联储降息,称鲍威尔总是“又迟又错”,“越早走人越好”。

  《纽约时报》称,考虑到随着经济增长放缓,通胀很可能上升,未来降息的门槛似乎很高;但由于贸易紧张局势不断升级,美国经济衰退的可能性大增,这可能意味着美联储将在某个时候不得不开始降低利率,以保护就业市场。

  不过,分析指出,利率降低会使持有以美元计价的资产吸引力下降,这可能会给美元带来更大压力。而且,如果美联储在制定货币政策上受到政府干扰,美元将变得更加不稳定。

  政策混乱带来市场动荡

  华尔街资深投资者、知名经济学家彼得·希夫(PeterSchiff)日前指出,美国政府混乱的经济政策给美元蒙上阴影,这种情绪正反应在美元指数上。本届政府上台之初,美元指数大幅上涨,但随着一系列经济政策推出并实施,美元开始走弱。

  《纽约时报》也指出,近期美国债市、汇市动荡,在一定程度上反映了人们对美国关税计划的困惑。

  近期,美政府关于征收、豁免和暂停关税的政策朝令夕改,到底哪些商品可能会受到新关税打击的问题让投资者紧张不安。

  美国外交关系委员会高级研究员、曾供职于财政部的塞策表示,美元的下跌可能有一些更根本、更令人担忧的因素,而不仅仅是对经济前景预期的转变。

  “在美国经历了一段时期异乎寻常的政策波动,面临真正的经济衰退风险之后,一些外国投资者可能会怀疑是否应该继续向美国投入更多资金,这种想法并非毫无道理。”塞策说。

  新华社快讯:习近平致电祝贺诺沃亚当选连任厄瓜多尔总统。

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